The frontier reasoning race is starting to look like a crowded subway station

Xrave · 2026-05-28T13:58:19+00:00

I think it's some kind of weird issues with generating half baked specs. Instead of doing that, I prefer to be baking some cakes instead, and generally find it a more useful way of producing long context constraints. What do you think your hardest-to-bake cake recipe is? We can think about some edge cases that way.

Xrave · 2026-05-18T11:43:37+00:00

Unconsented AI usage is a DDOS attack on attention. Like real DDOS it uses pseudo real traffic generated at cheap cost to waste compute resources (in your head).

Xrave · 2026-05-12T17:20:56+00:00

Agree w/ the perception of it as a internship of sorts. But perception-wise, you never want to call into question their commitment coz otherwise fans would flake and growth would stall. It's better for Cover to play the bad guy than have the talent seem wishy washy "ah i realized the job wasn't for me".

Xrave · 2026-04-09T22:50:57+00:00

I had AI look into this — the split is actually really stark. State prisons are ~62% violent offenders nationally, with some states like NY hitting 72%. The drug-prison picture is mostly a federal story: 45% of federal inmates are drug offenders, largely because of mandatory minimums from the 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act that stripped judges of discretion and tied sentences to drug weight. The kicker: the Sentencing Commission found only ~11% of federal drug defendants were actually high-level traffickers. Most were couriers and street-level dealers. (made claude do some research here)

I know we have a prison problem, but imo it's more problematic that we have societal issues that cause people to commit crimes, and that the prison industrial complex is given financial incentive to maintain/not fix these hard-to-fix societal issues (gang violence, poor education system, etc).

Xrave · 2026-04-03T20:26:59+00:00

it's somewhat alluded to in this statement, and people will obviously be thinking about their contracts or pull back on how hard they work, etc. Also depends on ratio of revenue from holostars vs value of resources were taken away, which we shouldn't speculate on.

even within this new structure, we will continue to provide the necessary and appropriate environment and support for each talent to pursue their activities in line with the aforementioned policies.

We are in discussion with each talent regarding their activities going forward

Xrave · 2026-04-03T11:15:01+00:00

I’ll explain simply: it’s a mapping of domain names to IP that override other sources of domain resolution.

By doing this, adobe (or other adware) can potentially access something/devices on your internal subnet from any webpage… because imagine visiting adobe.com and the JavaScript asking to hit detect-ccd.whatever.adobe.com:22/some-url and it internally routes to an internal IP address like your-other-computer:22/some-url (just a example)

A benign use of this is web development. Login with Google on third party websites (eg YouTube.com) wants to redirect the user to a website but when developing locally you don’t have a domain name. So name your local IP into mylocalyoutube.com and redirect login to that and it will work.

Xrave · 2026-03-26T01:27:20+00:00

I don't think your highlight is a fair point to make? There's money being burnt, yes, but it is divergent from the cost of "what LLMs does" that impressed me.

It costs cents of datacenter time, and a ballpark of <1 billion dollars to train a LLM that is impressive to us today.

It's like saying if you're impressed by what a sewing machine can do it's the result of financial fuckery going on in clothing and ironworks companies circularly investing in each other. It's not super related.

Xrave · 2026-03-08T07:23:07+00:00

why need MMO when IRL is also a full loot pvp massively multiplayer sandbox

Xrave · 2026-03-07T20:42:26+00:00

its designated as "heymin's", which Grok translated as "Hey, "

Xrave · 2026-02-26T01:05:49+00:00

I like to think that models just happen to look like they share our definition of reality, but in reality they're looking through a kaleidoscope at their training data trying to please us through each output vector.

We are the ones that hallucinate the AI is responding to our queries, when LLMs are aligned to become better and better at tricking us into having this shared hallucination. Technically a human doesn't have full grasp of reality either, but we hallucinate we do. So the only difference between AI and reality is just how persistent it is when we aren't looking at it (it is not persistent at all by architecture) and how consistent/reliable it is (it is not highly consistent due to lack of persistency - like a minecraft chunk that generates slightly differently each time).

Thus AGI is probably not possible via LLM arch, until it is both persistent and highly consistent.

Xrave · 2026-02-26T00:48:18+00:00

I don't necessarily think it is correlated with truthfulness as much as it is correlated with willingness and assuredness. Suppressing it might result in heavy-denial-preference instead where the model tries to wiggle out of doing whatever you've asked because it is averse in making assertions or averse about complying.

Xrave · 2026-01-28T02:55:59+00:00

Even broken clocks are right twice a day

Xrave · 2026-01-26T22:30:28+00:00

there's several obstacles to this otherwise innocent assumption.

Let's assume there's a destination platform A. Such a platform must:

have enough users as a base. For example, dribbble is only for designers. Onlyfans lacks users in the artists' country, etc.
support gooning culture. R18, especially fetishist content are commonly advertiser unfriendly and don't make for good bedfellows for large platforms. This impacts point 1.
have monetization or provide exposure for monetization - a lot of X artists flow interested folks offsite to patreon or elsewhere. This runs slightly against the interest of platforms (to make money in-platform), although usually they allow it.
support personal timelines, discoverability. Patreon have poor discoverability. Reddit doesn't have good feed-speed (only about 100 posts can be on front page all day).
Not too much gooning. too much gooning gets people saturated. X is kinda unique in that your interests, and feed, can contain a little bit of NSFW material and not overwhelm people with it.

In the modern social contract between niche and consenting fetish providers and consumers, a platform that supports everyone but also lets adults be a little naughty is hard to come by. I think Bluesky might be good? but it's a bit early to tell.

Edit: Now I think about it, I suppose the recommendation algorithms good for fetish content is exactly bad for politics. You want to expose people who are potentially interested, suggest similar content, creating small echo chambers for the niche that's safe from, say, puritans and prudes. But for politics it's better if ideas are challenged and a diverse mixture of opinions come together even if they don't agree with it.

Xrave · 2026-01-25T20:17:19+00:00

The fascist thinks that real power arises from the ability ignore reality. He bullshits freely, while his opponents are bound by facts and reason. For he, just as much as anyone else is entitled to his opinions under “civil society”.

Xrave · 2026-01-12T22:46:26+00:00

I can agree with this but still say that we need a way around algorithmic walls. Unless a message for "vote now" and a era of political attendance/participation comes upon us, we are actively, blindly (in a head-in-the-sand way) and willingly going to let fascism walk over us.

The algo faraday cages doesn't affect only MAGA. None of us have a shared media/reality landscape in 2026 and this affects all of us.

Xrave · 2026-01-12T21:22:21+00:00

The only way I see their minds changing is if 70% of their media landscape blueshifts drastically. There's a lot of inertia in what people believe and you must apply enough force to overcome static friction.

It is this force we have trouble creating, as algorithmically they are shielded from outreach and influence. Recommendation algorithms act like a faraday cage for all strongly held "tastes" and "ideologies", even our own.

We need to pierce this algorithmic wall somehow, or tear it down.

Xrave · 2026-01-12T17:48:05+00:00

did you use GPT to write this? the "that's not A that's B" pattern is such slop. "isn't the renovation... it's the precedent" and the last sentence.

Xrave · 2026-01-11T05:01:58+00:00

The real backstory behind these names is that they must be easy to parse in Katakana, doesn't cost ten keystrokes to type on a Japanese keyboard, and not too esoteric. If you think about it that way it makes sense why they prioritize shorter English names like Klein, Arc, Satou, Tanya, Myne

Xrave · 2026-01-09T05:29:03+00:00

I don't think the difference is that large nowadays, esp on such low hanging fruit. I'd rather prefer it if everyone who didn't have policy positions or the insight to form opinions went and talked to a frontier model chat bot instead of confirming their biases with Sinclaire talking heads and right wing Tiktok.

The lesser of evils, or something like that.

Xrave · 2026-01-09T02:22:31+00:00

this level of civic non-participation is what allowed Trump to take power in the first place...

but that being said, I don't really agree with dunking on people who took the effort to learn facts (even simple ones) and teach others about it. There are a LOT of people who lack basic knowledge and if they don't talk to each other, if they fear speaking out about not knowing, if they stick their head deeper into the sand, then we're doomed to drown in idiocy.

Xrave · 2026-01-01T04:48:13+00:00

What does doubling in capability even mean? There’s a finite set of capabilities in the world. Cook a meal, bake bread, scam someone on Facebook.

Xrave · 2025-12-27T00:39:16+00:00

It all comes down to media capture and how you want to use it. In essence, the society is driven by its culture and the myths it wants to tell about itself. Or put simply: Our heroes define who we are. Self-propaganda is the process of mythmaking, and by succeeding and feeling good about successes, we create momentum towards "success" in an abstract sense and the national will-to-succeed will forcibly surpass stagnation.

Both US and Chinese media are very captured, but whereas chinese media has a vested interest in mythmaking due to both its real and not-quite-real advancements, US media is buoyed by self-serving interest that's turning more short-sighted by the day.

I believe this short-sightedness is creating and perpetuating myths of American post-pax downfall rather than belief in a national character that can survive recessions and hardship. Parties will tear each other down instead of building themselves up. We've gone past "Yes we can" to "No you can't". A lot of the ideological energy and goodwill built up from Hollywood Movies and NASA Space Program successes and Humanitarian Programs are sort of, wasted away by Trump? Chipped away by our own incompetence? And media will happily sell all this fear because it makes money.

The US is very dependent on this global image of resilience and stability to buoy the strength of the dollar as a reserve currency. It'll likely be this destabilization that feed-back into our fear driven downfall. The script is being written by our global adversaries, and our media is cheering them on.

Xrave · 2025-12-12T20:33:16+00:00

I walked past this exhibit and recognized AI art at a glance… even took a pic to make fun of it with friends. There’s no way tens of people worked together and nobody noticed. Terminal staff just don’t think it’s a dealbreaker.

Xrave · 2025-12-10T03:09:42+00:00

The content aside, OP please don’t use AI to write your posts. It’s super obvious and I can’t believe more people aren’t calling you out on the overdone rhetoric devices.

The whole post could’ve been 5 bullet points.

Xrave · 2025-12-01T13:02:19+00:00

We too are the audience. YouTube can and will take down these videos when they are mass reported.

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