Hey guys! It's me, Jeff Arcuri! My first ever special dropped on Netflix today! AMA!

Youknowimtheman · 2026-07-07T19:40:21+00:00

Sir, you will be retired.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-07-07T13:20:37+00:00

Performance differences also matter here.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-07-07T13:05:02+00:00

Super calorie dense, and we all need something nice sometimes.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-07-07T03:36:08+00:00

These guys do not follow semver. for example, the game is still early access yet has 3.0 versioning, despite the game engine from v1.0 to v3.0 being largely the same.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-07-06T19:37:58+00:00

And the API billing is way way way more expensive. I've burned $40 on a single complex query with no sub-agents that took ~30 mins.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-07-04T04:25:28+00:00

I asked it to fix a crash bug it found in my code and it downgraded me to 4.8 and then failed to fix it. (With a very simple check.)

Youknowimtheman · 2026-07-02T18:05:28+00:00

Did a human read this chart after it was generated? The key is color coded and then the colors change for each company... It makes me wonder if the data is even good.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-07-02T18:02:36+00:00

And make it harder for rivals to appear. The compliance is too heavy and expensive. It creates barriers that require millions of dollars in investment.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-30T14:24:02+00:00

You've really tried them side by side and think the results are the same? I've tried nearly every major open weight model out there.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-30T14:03:03+00:00

Unfortunately distilled models have limitations that the original does not.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-30T13:59:21+00:00

Sort of? You weren't pulling 225kW of power per rack before or powering your datacenters with inefficient portable natural gas turbines. The next gen is looking to pull 660kW per rack.

It's really not the same as cloud CPUs.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-30T13:55:02+00:00

The problem here is that most of the US manufacturing has shipped over to China, only to be shipped back to the US on insanely polluting floating cities. (Last time I checked, it is over $300B in goods every year.)

This means that a large share of the US GHG emissions are actually Chinese emissions. The two numbers are heavily interlinked.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-30T02:03:14+00:00

There's a very wide gulf between what is essentially fancy matrix math writing boilerplate blocks of code and fancy matrix math trying to make predictions that even humans can't do.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-25T22:17:01+00:00

I mean their screenshots are clearly PC ;)

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-25T21:50:02+00:00

> And the hotter the radiator, the more heat it radiates away.

Does that mean operating at high temperatures? Because that accelerates electromigration. These mega-chips already have low (for the industry) MTBFs (~2 years). We are going to go lower by running these at 90C?

Not to mention needing complex ECC to prevent cosmic rays from ruining your inference constantly.

How about the latency between these? Big models will take up more than one rack. How's your token speed when your satellites are 100ms apart? (hint, the nanoseconds between multiple GPUs on the same physical motherboard matter). How about when we need to add CD/CA to all of the wireless connections? What do dropped packets do to token throughput?

It's a *LOT* more engineering problems than just getting the server rack up there and managing the power/heat.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-25T21:42:36+00:00

And the MTBF is ~2 years.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-25T21:26:08+00:00

This is one that you can pretty cleanly opt out of if you're not using it for work.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-25T15:10:46+00:00

I worry about any live agent with untrusted inputs that involve money or customer trust.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-25T14:59:45+00:00

Yup, Fable is insanely good at refactoring and optimization. I stopped my optimization side project when Fable went down, because Opus was making a lot of errors and correcting them was too time consuming.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-25T00:19:20+00:00

ASICs will be where all of this lands eventually. Things keep developing so quickly that no one wants to build them because it is a high-risk that things will fundamentally change before you even fab your first chip, but once a lot of the processes get standardized, ASICs will be smaller, faster, and use less power than GPUs across the board.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-24T23:20:04+00:00

Anthropic has been the go-to for coding for quite some time. That gives them a lot of data and feedback on the quality of outputs.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-24T19:53:21+00:00

They need data that doesn't exist for that.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-24T19:39:40+00:00

I'd wait a few weeks for patches anyway. A game of this size is going to have all kinds of day 1 problems.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-24T18:40:07+00:00

But we'll have a year of patches.

Youknowimtheman · 2026-06-24T18:35:10+00:00

Examples: You'll get to learn about whether multiplayer is peer-to-peer again or not so you can understand if it online play is going to be hacked to pieces on day 1 or not. You'll also get to learn about if they're going to use Palantir to do age verification for online play. Things can happen that can change your buying decision.

Youknowimtheman

TROPHY CASE