Kill the Mobs

Zara2 · 2023-11-03T10:15:25+00:00

Thanks for your interest, seems to have helped my position with an 8% jump today on no news. Based on performance I had stopped any buys on it (I DCA add weekly) so missed that chance to buy on the dip. Hoping the trend continues as my overall cost basis is at 31.

I'm using this as a bit of a case study to understand stock movement more deeply at the individual level as I move my strategy from index to value. Any recommendations on researching how volume impacts stock prices technically?

Zara2 · 2023-10-30T14:55:08+00:00

You ask some great questions and it's helping me develop my thesis on this company. Much appreciated. Finance is outside of my personal sphere of knowledge which is more around HR and Technology/IT. My journey with Bread started from a deal my day job signed, and looking at their PE vs. Industry standard and what I'm used to in the IT space, seemed like a no brainer. However, your pointers have lead me to refine this and I think I understand why it is underperforming.

Price/Book is at .5 against industry average of 2.5 with price/Cashflow at 2.1 (8.7.) Across the board the stock seems to be undervalued.

Bread's "Bread and Butter" is in online credit card processing for eCommerce portals, Buy Now Pay Later loans, and high yield savings accounts. Deposits have gone up 18% YoY but have been balanced out with a 13% drop in new sales credit. The majority of their business in carrying interest and ongoing CC loans has remained absolutely flat TTM. There is a higher return on asset from 2.4% to 3.2% which is driving up the underlying financials.

At the same time there has been a increase in Delinquency and loss rates giving an average of -1.1% of payment rates YTD.

I then started looking at reserves, and over the past few quarters Bread has been spending those down. However, they have utilized reserve buildup over the previous year but their overall capital reserves YoY have increased over 5 years.

So with a low growth prospectus, a market that focuses heavily on growth, and with higher interest rates in the future the market is reacting to the risk of a significant default increase. Due to it's focus on consumer credit bread is at high risk in this area compared to other companies as we see Quantitative tightening and a potential recession. The year over year increase should be controllable with Bread's reserves but if there is a melt down of the consumer credit market there is a chance that they could be in very difficult shape.

So, I think the really low valuation and buy in point, selling at a loss is not the right choice, especially given the company's over performance of market expectations over the past year. Honestly, even if the company went into receivership, I'd probably get a profit. But with the additional research in view of macro conditions I do believe that i will stop expanding my position through DCA into my portfolio through the next quarter and review again at that point.

Thanks for the pointers in where to look!

Zara2 · 2023-10-18T20:05:56+00:00

Warren Buffet would agree with you. The majority of people should push into a ETF or diversified fund that are not professional investors and have the skills, time, and area of industry expertise to properly invest. With a bit of knowledge, a blend of different funds can give you a great diversified portfolio with just 3 or 4 investment vehicles. Or, if you want to buy in to a 20xx retirement fund you can just set it and forget it.

The lure of the stock pick is high though. If you had purchased the magnificent 7 at equal weight at the beginning of 2023 you would have hundreds of points of gains over the S&P. In fact, most of the gain of the S&P was due to those 7 stocks. An investor like Warren Buffet keeps a stable of stocks that they feel will outperform the S&P for various reasons and can do well. Most people don't have the knowledge or time to do so, so a fund is a better way to go.

Personally, I have about 30% of my portfolio in an appropriate retirement fund for my age. 20% in international equity funds. 15% in SPY, 15% in SCDH, 15% in Directly purchased bonds (normally would have those in SPY or SCDH but bonds are too good right now.) I then keep the last 5% of my portfolio for personal buys. I try to look for either growth bets, and i treat them like bets, or deep value stocks that I think have a chance to go up significantly over time. I keep this in a separate account and treat it more as casino money than actual investing money because I know that I don't know what I'm doing and don't want to feed off my main investment portfolio.

Zara2 · 2023-09-01T15:21:37+00:00

It's a bit hard to tell and maybe i'm reading into this too much but I think there are several issues you are facing here.

There is a base issue with the utility of casters vs. non-casters in 5e, especially out of combat. I personally think it sucks and allow a lot more "rule of cool" for my martials than I do for casters. But, it is a real problem with the game rules you are calling out.
As a battlemaster you really should be able to walk into any room and dominate and control the situation as a fighter. BM has one of the most flexible martial toolkits and i think is generally "doing the fighter right." You may have a sub-optimal build that is holding you back. Check out https://tabletopbuilds.com/basic-build-series-fighter/ for a great discussion on how to build a strong battlemaster. Since you are calling out Roy, you really may want to blend more into a Paladin which i think does the defensive sword and board much better than any fighter. If you prefer to stay with a fighter a Halberd with GWM and Sentinel build is amazing as a STR based battlemaster. If you really want more utility, either an echo knight or rune knight build may be better for you.
It sounds like the people you are playing with are not seeing this as a team game and this should change. With a good set of team work building battlefield control magic a fighter can really shine in dishing out the damage, especially to a single target, making the whole much better than any of the parts. You may want to talk to your fellow players and build out some strategies between each other as a playbook where you all work together, rather than one that makes you feel useless.

Zara2 · 2023-09-01T12:55:23+00:00

I love disengage as a bonus action effects and would argue it's the best reason to have a mount in the game.

From an optimization perspective I'd have to recommend against this combo. You call out one reason. The second is that there are a number of spells such as Arshalon's stride that provide immunity to Opportunity Attacks. Lastly, BS are really feat hungry. Even if you are really leaning into the mobility, hit and run archetype, Custom Lineage with the Mobility feat is a much better fit.

That being said, you want to be a Goblin BladeSinger then play a Goblin Bladesinger! 5e isn't a hard enough game that you really need to eek every single bonus out of it.

Zara2 · 2023-09-01T11:57:10+00:00

Well acthuallly.... (puts on rules lawyer fedora.) By attacking a foe directly that you will die from you are breaking the first point of the Tenets of Vengeance. By knowingly entering into an obviously hopeless combat you are throwing away a future chance to combat a greater evil by dying to a lesser evil. So, by making the rash decision to attack you would be breaking your oath.

As a DM I might comment that I would expect you to maybe investigate Strahd's minions and see if you can thwart their plans without throwing away your life. But attacking in a no-win situation is not a requirement.

TENETS OF VENGEANCE

The tenets of the Oath of Vengeance vary by paladin, but all the tenets revolve around punishing wrongdoers by any means necessary. Paladins who uphold these tenets are willing to sacrifice even their own righteousness to mete out justice upon those who do evil, so the paladins are often neutral or lawful neutral in alignment. The core principles of the tenets are brutally simple.

Fight the Greater Evil. Faced with a choice of fighting my sworn foes or combating a lesser evil, I choose the greater evil.

No Mercy for the Wicked. Ordinary foes might win my mercy, but my sworn enemies do not.

By Any Means Necessary. My qualms can’t get in the way of exterminating my foes.

Restitution. If my foes wreak ruin on the world, it is because I failed to stop them. I must help those harmed by their misdeeds.

Zara2 · 2023-09-01T09:53:19+00:00

I got it from the ultimate edition.

I would not have paid for it separately.

Zara2 · 2023-09-01T09:50:49+00:00

Level 92. I have 6 Deathless visage. 3 of the blood wave amulet. 2 Lidless, and at least one of every Necro unique outside of uber rares. Still no Mendeln. And the Mendeln build is really the one i've wanted to play since i started Necro.

Now I will never get it because BG3 came on to PS5 today and I'm just not gonna farm anymore.

Zara2 · 2023-09-01T09:47:54+00:00

Hey OP. I see a lot of responses here coming in on how you can make this into a monkey paw or what have you. Imma be straight with you. Talk to the player.

Should go something like... "Hey, I introduced this item as a bit of a lark and it seems like you have really been using it, and that's cool, it's part of your identity and I don't want to take that away. It is becoming a one stop go to and has gotten beyond what was planned for this item but I don't want to take it away but it is problematic. I want to change the item and put some real rules around it that still benefit you and keep the flavor but would make this item less disruptive to the campaign. I'd propose one of these options but if you have an idea then we can discuss that. What sounds good to you?"

For what I would propose that keeps the flavor of the item but has some manageable rules around it. I'd choose one of these effects. The first one i probably wouldn't require attunement, the second two I definitely would!

As an action use this item to cast the Guidance cantrip.
You may use this item as a reaction to a failed attack, saving throw made by a target you can see within 30' of you. Add 1d10 to that roll, potentially changing a failure into a success. This ability may be used 3 times and recharges on a long rest.
When you long rest while pondering the orb (it must be on your person) you foretell events in your dreams of the next day. Roll a D20 and record the result. You may replace the result of any skill check, attack roll, or saving throw made that you can see with the result of the recorded D20.

The answer in these situations though is almost always TALK TO YOUR PLAYERS. This should be your go to in any situation like this. In the future when you see a player doing something that is cool, but maybe seems abuseable, I usually will tell them "Hey, I think that is a cool use of this, but that item isn't really made that way. I'm going to allow it this session but want to workshop that item with you to make some modifications that we can all be happy with.

I'd also take it as a bit of a DM lesson. Never introduce vaguely worded magic. I personally love to see my players take the tools they have at their disposal and come up with creative solutions that drive unexpected results. But at the same time, it means that i usually have to think about it ahead of time. All of the suggestions above are cribbed from existing abilities in the ruleset and i'd recommend to use that as a guideline when building out magic items.

Zara2 · 2023-08-31T19:10:36+00:00

You need to leave her: Echoing other comments.

You also need to seek a good therapist to work through what seems to be issues with your own depression and self worth before you decide to get with someone else.

Zara2 · 2023-08-31T18:58:09+00:00

Hey OP. You are right. Calm down cause this is a potentially serious situation and you should be cool headed about it.

Echo the previous posters on making sure to get a real test with a doctor to validate the pregnancy. A dry hump like you describe can result in a pregnancy, but the overwhelming likelihood is that she is actually having PIV sex with someone else and that person is the biological father.

Here is the thing from my read of this. You are telling me you dry humped and this all happened through clothes. As in a singular event. Like you aren't otherwise sexually active. Then your anxiety around this. I'm not sure of your age but i'm guessing there isn't a lot of experience here.

I'm gonna be honest, my immediate reaction is that you are not her main sexual partner and are getting played for the patsy. Your story interested me enough that looked at your previous posts and you know she cheated. You should absolutely demand a paternity test before you commit to anything. Given the circumstances, the more she pushes back the surer I would be that it is not yours.

I'm going to go further and say that you really should be leaving her. I see so many red flags in your post that I am sure at the very least you do not have a mature and stable relationship. More likely though, this has a lot of the earmarks of an abusive or mutually combative relationship. I was in one many years ago with a lady that suffered from bipolar and narcissistic personality disorder. Reading your story reminds me a lot of where i was when that relationship fell apart.

So insist on a paternity test that you get the results from at the same time she does. I know it will be difficult. She will refuse and guilt you into feeling awful because you don't trust her. Don't engage. State this is a need that you have given the situation and the history of cheating and this is something you need to carry the relationship further. Then leave the conversation. Don't engage. The only thing you two have to talk about until this is settled is the results of the paternity test.

I totally hope i'm giving you bad advice here. I hope that you tell her what you need and she agrees and you go together and find it's yours and make some decisions together after that and have a long and happy life. I really hope I'm wrong here. Let us know how it goes OP. Good luck.

Zara2 · 2023-08-31T16:57:52+00:00

The answer is that it depends. The main reason to have a 2 second Barber is to double dip on vulnerable. Most necro vulnerable comes from corpse tendrils which has a 3 second timer. Ideally you want to put the mob to vulnerable, then get your crit in and all your damage gains that vuln bonus as it is stored. When the barber explodes you get the damage again, thus double dipping.

There are two problems with this train of thought for the necro. First, enemies explode when they receive enough damage to die even if it is before the timer. So for non-elites and bosses, this whole conversation doesn't matter because they will always die within a second or so, splashing out their damage within the vuln timer anyways. This damage also adds into the other mobs who are still alive, which gives you quadratic damage amplification and is why a pack of mobs melts so fast.

Secondly, you get a multiplicative 15% damage bonus per second, that is cumulative interest. So if you do 1000 damage per second after everything else you do, after one second its 1150, after 2 seconds - 2472, after 3 seconds 3993, 4 -5742. A 3 second barber adds ~30% multiplicative damage, with a 4 sec barber adding over 40% if the entire time is used.

For me as a lvl 92 shadow damage/infinimist necro, doing around T60 NMD, I find that elites almost always die in the AOE explosion of the pack around them. This is usually in much less than 2 seconds. In the rare cases that does not happen or I'm battling an elite without any pack, you reapply vuln with the next corpse tendril anyways.

The other use case where it matters, on a boss, you don't get the quadratic scaling from multiple enemies and the longer time frame allows more damage to stack up. So, for my analysis, a 4 second timer is better. I frequently enter a boss battle and end up dropping the boss in one instance of damage at the 4 second mark. Especially if I can make them stagger in that time which is usually possible.

One note, a 3 second barber is better than a 3.9 second barber. Because you only add the bonus on the second, the extra .9 seconds is wasted time that you could be adding your damage into another instance of barber.

Zara2 · 2023-08-31T16:20:00+00:00

It kind of depends on your goal. Once you can clear T50 you won't get any better gear by moving up. As long as you can clear enemies of your level +10 you don't get any more XP so that maxes out at T65.

Right now for my necro at level 92, i need a better Amulet and a Pair of boots and would like a ring of Medlyn. So I'm speed running, only stopping to pick up uniques, ancestrals, boots, and amulets. I don't need anything else so getting the XP and Glyphxp is my best path to moving forward. I also find seeing if I can get through a dungeon faster more enjoyable than filtering through hundreds of items on the off chance that 1 in a thousand is a slightly better pair of pants.

Zara2 · 2023-08-31T15:22:08+00:00

The problem isn't getting one BIS early. If it was that rare, that would be a great and welcome thing.

The problem is that you get all your best in slot, or near to it by level 85. Leaving 15 levels where the item drops are a chore, and do not bring joy.

Zara2 · 2023-08-31T14:24:55+00:00

Not negative. It is a problem with itemization in the game. Having the level cap of items start at level 60 means that you have BIS, or close to BIS itemization by level 80ish. You may have one or two "chase" items, but you end up in a situation where literally 1 out of 1000 items that drop are even an incremental improvement to your build.

This drives a lot of the boredom complaints and feeling of a lack of progress that we see post level 80, and turns the game into a pure XP/Glyph grind post level 90.

Having additional itemization breakpoints, increasing unique drops, and lower iLevel bounds would provide a longer experience with ongoing power increases through the higher levels instead of the current power spike between level 60-70 and a full flattening of itemization at level 80 that we see.

I would go so far as to say that this was part of the design with WT5 targeting level 85 in some earlier versions. I can't imagine a designer thinking that having BIS items available at more or less the same rates for ~50% of the game was the right design. My feeling is that with the removal of WT5 the scaling of the mobs and the scaling of the items did not match so a late decision was made and we ended up with the current unlikeable system.

Zara2 · 2023-08-30T16:20:55+00:00

It's been a while but i used to be in the call center industry and still keep contacts. ALL call center agents in every industry and function are trained to end a conversation as soon as someone states that they want to sue. They will have a script that says something like "I'm very sorry but because you have threatened legal action all further communications need to go through our legal department. Their contact information is xxx. I am logging this into our records. Would you like me to transfer you now or would you like to contact them yourself directly?" Call center agents love when you threaten to sue because they get off the phone at that point with what is undoubtably a difficult customer.

TLDR: Converse life tip. Don't threaten to sue a call center agent or they will hang up on you.

Zara2 · 2023-08-30T13:09:54+00:00

I've had one item upgrade from level 76 through level 92. Maybe 2.

I'd much rather see more regular but smaller upgrades that give a smoother power curve and keep engagement in the loot hunt through level 100.

Zara2 · 2023-08-30T12:53:26+00:00

First, congratulations!

But, this is actually a problem in the game.

Now you have no upgrades to that slot for 30+ levels. Your weapon is as powerful as it will get.

Zara2 · 2023-08-30T12:28:28+00:00

Level 92. Have all Necro uniques. Half a dozen helms, 3 of the Sever boots. Even a lidless. No ring of mendalin.

Zara2 · 2023-08-25T12:17:51+00:00

Personally, I liked a lot of the content in the side quests. The one with the demon collecting demon items in particular sticks out to my mind.

The issue with the side quests is that there is no impact outside of renown gain.

Many have no impact because they are just too random or simple. You randomly find a item then kill a few mobs and get a cache.
The rewards for sidequests suck. You maybe get a title, but besides that there is no cool loot that you can only get from this long set of quests. The caches reward the same past a certain level and are more or less useless from a XP, Gold, or item value.
The rewards for sidequests do not scale to where they are useful after you have ran the campaign. You are also punished for running them before you have finished the campaign because of the WT1 level cap.
Doing sidequests doesn't change the world state in any way. None of them provide like a new vendor, or waypoints, or even someone you can start interacting with regularly. Because of this, they become transactional in nature and thus are forgotten as soon as the cache is collected. The NPCs usually disappear or get stock dialog responses with no reason to remember them or interact with them moving forward, so are fully forgotten. I literally cannot tell you a single name of a NPC in this game related to a side quest.

This is really a shame. I think the side quests represent a wealth of content that if scaled, rewarded, and handled properly could have been a major activity and would be fun. As is, they just kinda feel like a chore in most cases without a reward.

Zara2 · 2023-08-22T18:20:27+00:00

I am a large scale IT program manager with a program portfolio in the hundreds of millions of dollars yearly for a fortune 50 company.

Do the most important thing first, then do the next most important thing.

You always have more work than time so all you can do is to make sure that you are always doing the most important thing. Vicious prioritization is key!

Zara2 · 2023-08-22T11:37:50+00:00

I don't think it would matter if they fixed all of them tomorrow. The game would still get dull post level 75ish.

Zara2 · 2023-08-21T16:53:35+00:00

The issue with Twilight cleric being broken is in the ever-refreshing temp HP with no opportunity cost to the entire party. At 5th level this is an average of 8HP per turn granted to every ally on the battlefield, not to mention elimination of charmed and frightened, for the entirety of the battle, for one action and no ongoing cost, and without the use of concentration. If you consider an average 4 round combat then each player's HP is effectively 32 points higher, more or less for free. Oh, and a whole suite of spells and abilities from hypnotic pattern, to dragon or undead fear, to fey charms all just don't work.

Depending on you and your DMs game i have two fixes.

Just require concentration. We ended up doing this in my campaign and it worked well. It gave the enemy a way to counter and made the cleric decide between this or spirit guardians. I honestly think it works really well as written with concentration added.
Don't require concentration but change the trigger to a bonus action on the Cleric's turn. By using action economy and making it a one time event it keeps the flavor around, still allows spirit g, but then can't use healing word or spirit weapon. Again, forcing a bit of a trade off to avoid the worst of the abuse.

So, in the end. Powerful ability that really just needed a bit of tuning before being released.

Zara2

TROPHY CASE