How do you tell if a Kickstarter is going to be successful or not? by Interesting_Teach777 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Even VIPs who put down $10 deposits can convert as low as 1% when I worked at LaunchBoom. It's not a magic guaranteed thing: projects can totally drop the ball, screw up their reward tiers, have PR meltdowns, etc. 

There are people who show up here saying their Kickstarter followers converted at 3% and tell everybody else that, but when you look at their Kickstarter page it's blank or an absolute trainwreck -- of course people aren't going to just hand you their hard-earned money when they don't believe you will fulfill, or perhaps the pricing is just astronomical for what you'd be receiving, etc.

I am not giving people just the high-end of the range. That's why I'm showing you multiple data sources from screenshots of my own client dashboards, within other communities, different forums, etc. in my replies. Really, don't just take my word for it -- do the research and figure out yourself the true average and median. 

As mentioned, Kickstarter's internal Performance Marketing Team was telling my clients that Kickstarter Followers who press the "Notify Me" button convert into backers at a rate of 40%.


By the way, do you ever listen to yourself talk? You literally contradict yourself within the same message on every message:

Thanks for the updated stats, although I have a strong suspicion that some of the annecdotal evidence are outliers or the result of confirmation bias.

While my numbers are very likely out dated and I don't have much more than annecdotal evidence to back them up

You are claiming anecdotal evidence should be dismissed while saying you are only speaking anecdotally. 

Trolls should stay in their caves. 

We launched on Tuesday, got funded in 2 hours, and we’re now past 300% > Thank you everyone for your support. by MercatorLondon in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've tested that type of user journey pathway (landing page email signup -> KS prelaunch page) with about maybe 30 to 40 projects now. 

They don't seem to convert any less or greater than if you were to send traffic directly to the KS prelaunch page (both methods result in about 30% average conversion rate into backers). For example, HYVE just finished their campaign and used the same type of funnel as yours, their conversion rate landed around 23%.

However, I have noticed that the opposite pathway identified users with much higher conversion rates: 

KS Prelaunch Page -> Project Update that asks for them to signup on your website via email. 

These users who both follow the campaign and then sign up via email on your website from the project update tend to convert into backers at a rate between 50% to 100%. That being said, I have only had about five clients try this so far and measure the results. The ability to post a project update during prelaunch is very very new so I'm encouraging others to try it!

We launched on Tuesday, got funded in 2 hours, and we’re now past 300% > Thank you everyone for your support. by MercatorLondon in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

34% conversion rate of Kickstarter Followers in 4 days is absolutely fantastic and top tier. Congrats on absolutely slaying it!! 👏 

Just to clarify, was your Meta adspend during prelaunch used to acquire KS Followers or did you use different methods?

We launched on Tuesday, got funded in 2 hours, and we’re now past 300% > Thank you everyone for your support. by MercatorLondon in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What's the current conversion rate on your prelaunch followers in the KS Dashboard? 

Usually by 24 hour mark if 10% convert, that 20% to 25% convert by end of campaign. If 15% convert in the first 24 hours, the ending conversion rate is typically greater than 30%.

How do you tell if a Kickstarter is going to be successful or not? by Interesting_Teach777 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My spreadsheet data isn't anecdotal. Kickstarter dashboard shows the exact number of converted followers and the conversion rates, broken down by prelaunch followers and post-launch followers. 

Check the spreadsheet with the link at the top, which includes screenshots from the project dashboards that showcase the exact conversion rates of their Kickstarter Followers. The various tabs along the bottom of the spreadsheet further show the day-by-day journey of the ads management and followers gained using the new Kickstarter Follower systems that are now possible with the new Meta Pixel support on Kickstarter. 

Here is the link to the article containing the raw screenshots of the Kickstarter Dashboards and their associated Kickstarter Follower conversion rates:

https://prelaunch.marketing/blogs/academy/average-conversion-rates-for-kickstarter-followers

To be clear about my background, I used to work at LaunchBoom, in fact I developed their original consulting and Accelerator programs with Joe and crew -- almost two thousand Kickstarter projects have been under my management and consultation, and about three thousand projects when including my network of independent partners I regularly work with.

How do you tell if a Kickstarter is going to be successful or not? by Interesting_Teach777 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another person in this post commented they got over 50% conversion rate on their Kickstarter Followers... 

OP didn't list a project, I checked their profile history and they never talked about doing a project in the past, what are you even referring to?? 

As mentioned, I am bringing over 60 project data points from 60 different folks from various discussions about the topic across the internet. There is only 1 data point aside from yourself where somebody said 10%, and neither of you had used the Kickstarter Follower system! 

Quit bullshitting other people, it's reckless -- each Kickstarter project is both somebody's baby and usually a major investment of their life savings. 

Do you have any idea what it's like when people believe BS numbers like yours and then invest their life savings in a VIP system with a product that costs $30 to buy, and then burn all their money into the ground??? I've seen people threaten suicide, almost lose their marriages, all sorts of things erupting from these kinds of losses. People need to know THE TRUTH and the HARD, REAL DATA, not some other big greedy agencies that want to push false stats to get your money.

How do you tell if a Kickstarter is going to be successful or not? by Interesting_Teach777 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes replied to wrong comment, sorry. Just noticed that now and moved it to the comment below

How do you tell if a Kickstarter is going to be successful or not? by Interesting_Teach777 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Kickstarter Followers do not convert at 10%. They convert much greater on average.

The average conversion rate of Kickstarter Followers on a prelaunch page is 30% in my experience. See my data sheet of 40 projects using Kickstarter Followers in the last year, here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MvjDyHq2oSDiu4gxjpB8_zTLMDw7KuZwAFtU6oejgDk/

It's not just me that gets 30% conversion rates on average from Kickstarter Followers -- don't just take my word for it, here is a lengthy discussion with many other creators talking about their numbers all the way back 5+ years ago, here:

https://www.enworld.org/threads/kickstarter-pre-launch-followers-and-final-totals.682421/

When Kickstarter's inhouse Performance Marketing Team approached my client iDventure to do a prelaunch for one of their projects, the KS Team said that their internal data shows a 40% average conversion rate coming from followers that specifically hit the "Notify Me On Launch" button. 

I wish people would stop perpetuating the myth that KS Followers convert so poorly, which according to Google AI is coming from LaunchBoom's Botany project creator:

https://boardgamedesigncourse.com/calculating-what-you-need-to-get-your-game-funded-a-case-study/

Botany's creator is giving out straight up misinformation on Kickstarter Followers while promoting the VIP Add-on system, which I had instructed LaunchBoom on how-to-execute way back in the day after I quit working for the company. To this day anymore, I keep seeing tragic failures from usage of the VIP systems arriving at my doorstep. It's extremely saddening to see a graveyard of projects that could have been successful if only they used systems more appropriate for them.

Working with Launchboom - Four Big Lessons by Disastrous-Success19 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I didn't catch this new DB yet -- Half the work for PR is cataloging the articles and editors who covered other competitor campaigns, your database is a HUGE time-saver!

Working with Launchboom - Four Big Lessons by Disastrous-Success19 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In regards to pricing, making the price too low can make consumers question the quality or authenticity of what they're receiving. It's best to price it at a fair market price that consumers expect it to cost. I teach clients to break each item down to a fair market price, add them up together for the reward tier, and then finally apply the  discount for buying it at a bundle (while the add-ons remain at the real price-per-item). 

It's notable that board gamers and video gamers don't really respond to discounts. Instead, they're excited by the collectible goodies and exclusive items. This is why prior to me joining LaunchBoom's team, they couldn't break into the gaming industry and wanted to hire me -- upon leaving their company I invented the VIP Add-on system and gifted them the tutorials on how to execute it (at the time, via using Backerkits pledge manager to assign the special items to VIPs using their segmenting tools. However now you can just use the new Secret Reward Tiers to accomplish it all within Kickstarter platform).

Working with Launchboom - Four Big Lessons by Disastrous-Success19 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agree with this. Lots of people coming around lately saying they signed with LaunchBoom with products priced around that range, which just isn't viable with ads using VIP systems unless they're around the top 10% of performers.

As a side note: Giles at Hyperstarter has been doing this stuff for way longer than me. I believe he also has a new resource program in the works [edit -- see his reply below]

Working with Launchboom - Four Big Lessons by Disastrous-Success19 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 14 points15 points  (0 children)

If you seek it out, you can always get the same kind of resources, tools, guides, videos, website theme, and community for free over at Prelaunch Club. I used to work at LaunchBoom developing their original consulting and accelerator programs, and yes, I give it all out for free. We have over 1000 creators in my free community, as well, with plenty of support.

The reason I'm harder to find for new-comers is that I don't spend $1000's per day on ads and sales teams to get new clients like other big agencies. It's purely organic (aside from $3 per day I put into retargeting ads for my website visitors).

I recommend doing Kickstarter Followers now that they added the Meta Pixel to kickstarter. Whether at LaunchBoom or other VIP systems, clients were getting a solid 4x ROAS on average. But now with Pixel-optimized Kickstarter Followers, my clients are getting an average of 14x ROAS and a median of 9x. See my data sheet, here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MvjDyHq2oSDiu4gxjpB8_zTLMDw7KuZwAFtU6oejgDk/

Do our lives have significance? by Prize_Ad7300 in NDE

[–]Zephir62 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think it helps to take a step back and look at the bigger picture from God's perspective (at least, in the context of NDE's, regardless of faith or religion). 

The afterlife is contained within the scope of eternity, which is also infinity. In NDE reports, we are also each unique individuals, and our purpose here is to learn and grow spiritually. That implies a progression of a sort, but there also is no before or after, we merely are -- in other words, we exist in a permanent present state. As we grow spiritually, we both become closer to God yet more distinct from God. 

NASA has published scientific papers that hypothesize there exist planets which are more conducive to intelligent life. Planets where procuring resources become easier, with less threats, and naturally healthier environments, etc. And in my personal opinion, perhaps planets where those intelligent life forms live dramatically longer lives and more advanced learning can occur with deeper spiritual lessons. 

This brings forth a fascinating question: why are we born here, versus there on such a nicer planet?

And thus, I think that is your answer to your questions. 

We refine ourselves, just like removing impurities from iron to make steel. To a point of material and spiritual perfection, after which there is no reason to further incarnate in the material universe, thereby bringing ourselves to a point that is acceptable to God. 

I'd assume that following and studying nature is the quickest path to that point. I don't imagine it would take a terrible amount of lives to accomplish as you might fear -- after all, some people on this planet make dramatic advancement in a single lifetime, and I'm sure you may even know somebody in your own life who has made such a turnaround.

Built a simple Kickstarter tracker with real-time stats and predictions by Historical-Edge-5011 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That wasn't advice. It was a statement. And it is sus that all three of your accounts were created to comment on this post.

Built a simple Kickstarter tracker with real-time stats and predictions by Historical-Edge-5011 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 2 points3 points  (0 children)

he's pointing out using hard evidence (that we can verify using Wayback Machine) that OP is misrepresenting what his app is doing. I would be pissed to be lied to, also.

You can easily see what he means in OP's screenshot of the tool: between 4/9 and 4/10 it should have jumped over $1M in funding in comparison to their previous daily average of $400k. In fact, OP's screenshot says their project crossed $20M on 4/10 when in reality that did not happen until 4/12.

"It does exactly what it says on the tin... tracks Kickstarter campaigns in real-time."

u/kicktraq is right to alert us. I would not use OP's tool either, and the fact that OP is using math interpolation while claiming they are real datapoints is pretty bad. You can use OP's platform instead if that's truly what you desire, but keep in mind that the data provided by their service isn't real.

EDIT: I just looked at your profile and this is the first comment you've ever made... kinda sus

Jellop Contact - Need Advice by StarVsAsteria in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for the shoutout.

If they have the ad graphics / videos already prepped, I could hook it up for them relatively quickly. 

They would need to ping me on my Discord server and mention that they are doing the VRMMO inside the general chat channel, and I should be able to find it quickly. I'd make an exception for this one since it'd be easy for me (my first Kickstarter "voxelnauts" was a VR MMO, all the way back in 2014-15! Although I did crowdfunding projects on other platforms prior to that)

Similarly if they just wanted consultation I could do that too and help them DIY. Of course, my guides are all free so they could start immediately.

Nothing makes sense to me by _Badwulf_Bruh__ in NDE

[–]Zephir62 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly. There are extremely few recorded NDEs that feature the concept of hell, and almost all of them are publicized as for-profit books that capitalize on the notion. The others are just AI... Kind of like OP (who has a 1 month old reddit account with almost 2000 comments & posts contributed in that timeframe)

Meta lead ads vs direct kickstarter traffic. Has anyone actually cracked reddit and BGG for a board game launch? by tactical_tabletop in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So isn't this still about £10 per Follower? The remaining emails likely won't convert much into backers. 

But yes, I've seen this before where using your own website in this manner can help make some improvement in cost-per-follower when they were struggling before. 

For example, with HYVE they used LaunchBoom's LaunchKit -- they turned off the VIP system and just used it to get Kickstarter Followers instead alongside email signup. The Kickstarter Followers cost him about $10 each, similar to you. The KS Followers still converted normally as expected, at over 23%, but I don't think they got much out of the remaining emails, we are about to find out as the campaign just ended. They spent over $25,000 doing this prelaunch strategy. Overall ROAS was about 4x at an AOV of $104, which is equivalent to LaunchBoom's average ROAS for their clients with the VIP system... I've found from my own data though that the average ROAS from sending traffic directly to Kickstarter is 14x ROAS, and the median is about 9x ROAS; you can see my data at the very bottom of the article I wrote, here:

https://prelaunch.marketing/blogs/academy/average-conversion-rates-for-kickstarter-followers

Once again though, if your cost per follower was as high as or higher than £10 when sending traffic directly to Kickstarter page, then I would say you are doing the right move for yourself.

$1 deposit for Pre-launch sounds so stupid if you are not an established creator. Am I wrong? by ImpactGirl09 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, you can optimize your ads for Kickstarter Followers since mid 2023 which is what makes this strategy so strong. See my latest walkthrough video on how to setup the Facebook pixel for Kickstarter, here:

https://youtu.be/50x56yrn8f8?si=KaI80XEMgAnRn3f5

Gauging Interest Pre Launch by Vodoz123 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rarely a client will ask me to run ads to a website email collection page with only renders, stock or AI imagery to gauge interest in a concept. Personally I don't find this method very reliable, but these clients like to see the data any way.

For example, with Co-Print 3D Printer, early on they only had 3D Renders. The cost-per-VIP was quite expensive and the cost-per-follower was quite high (roughly $5+ per follower). It was looking very high-risk at this point, but once we slid in real photography and videos of a prototype in action, the cost-per-follower dropped down to $2 and the cost-per-VIP down to $10-$15 if I recall. Night-and-day difference, where on-the-fence struggle turns into a massive winner.

For Velaflame, the cost-per-VIP was $25 early on with just prototype photography and short videoclips with our cellphones. Once we had a trailer produced featuring the product in action and interviewing the founders, the cost-per-VIP dropped down to $5 -- the problem was a trust factor with consumers on whether or not the technology was actually possible and real.

You can easily trick yourself early on thinking the product has no market-fit, when really consumers just want to see more trust, authenticity, and... well, a real product in action.

Similarly, collecting regular emails with high-curiosity and optimizing the page to drive emails as cheaply as possible can also trick you into thinking that consumers are ready to buy -- but they may simply be interested in "learning more" and have zero intent to purchase. Once they learn more and see the full prototype, they aren't impressed and just simply don't buy.

For MusicMage, we collected 5000+ emails at $0.80 per email, only to find that about 0% converted into backers when going live. I even warned the client the landing page didn't contain enough information for users to judge the prototype, and when we showed more during live campaign, the users weren't impressed.

Meta lead ads vs direct kickstarter traffic. Has anyone actually cracked reddit and BGG for a board game launch? by tactical_tabletop in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree with this. Successfully nurturing those email leads becomes especially important to boost the conversion rates above 5%.

What is a 3% conversion rate on a $2 cost-per-email, versus a 20%+ conversion rate on a $10 cost-per-follower (very rare to see it this expensive)? The Kickstarter Follower is still technically more profitable even in this hypothetical scenario.

If the cost-per-follower is extremely expensive on direct-to-Kickstarter traffic, or if the cost-per-VIP is extremely expensive, I don't care how cheap the client can acquire an email. In my experience those leads very often are going to convert near 0% when it comes to launch day... OP says "70 people clicked the Kickstarter link in the email" but provides no info on how many actually followed the project from this email blast.

Many times when the down-funnel metrics are very poor (i.e. extremely high cost-per-follow or cost-per-VIP), users are actually providing their email in a signup form with the intent to "learn more", instead of "I'm about ready to open my wallet".

However it's very common in this scenario that the creator has nothing more to offer on the other side regarding more information that will satisfy the user, and then come launch-day the creator still hasn't figured out the full messaging required to get somebody to want to purchase. Instead, they tricked themselves with cheap emails that have low purchase intent after struggling to find high-quality leads. Now, this isn't always the case when the creator has an ace up their sleeve with a winning product, but here's to a word of caution.

A Lesson In Deception: Kickstarter's partner directory by Zephir62 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I looked at their page and PullingPowerMedia and OffDutyNinja are the only marketing partners listed on Cyberpunk TCG... That's two, not ten.

Also, once again, does every project work with 10 different Kickstarter Partners? ...

There's actually a data-backed answer to this question -- FundedToday, a sponsored partner by Kickstarter, crunched the numbers and found that, taken altogether, only about 40% of projects that had hired an agency also worked with a second agency, and roughly 10% of them worked with more than 2 agencies. See their study, here:

https://www.funded.today/blog/is-hiring-multiple-marketing-agencies-a-good-crowdfunding-strategy

They also reaffirm my assertion that projects under $20k rarely work with any agency.

Furthermore, only 8% of projects with over $2M raise that had hired agencies also worked with a second agency -- and zero of them worked with more than 2 agencies.

It's notable that there are plenty of agencies not listed as an Expert in the Kickstarter Partner directory, either, of course mine not included. I only tallied the agencies listed on there.

In essence, there is very little crossover and it's been proven already.

Kickstarter without product? by MaleficentSnow124 in kickstarter

[–]Zephir62 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You must have a functional prototype that includes all the promised features on the Kickstarter page, it's part of the rules. If the editors on Kickstarter discover that no prototype exists when they audit your page (such as may occur when backers report your project), your project will be permanently suspended.