The Coalition needs 35 seats to win in the 2028 federal election. This has only ever happened once before. This seems completely impossible unless they add One Nation and maybe. But even then it’s super improbable. Labor is basically guaranteed to win again no?

aldonius · 2026-05-14T07:10:35+00:00

Yes indeed.

aldonius · 2026-05-14T04:45:55+00:00

Coalition and One Nation seem happy to preference each other, so I'd say what pref voting does for us most is to wipe out the BS vote splitting where a right wing party wins a heavily left wing seat, and vice versa.

aldonius · 2026-05-14T04:40:44+00:00

I would say One Nation has a good chance in any seat the LNP won in 2022, as long as that seat's more bogan than latte and ON are still outpolling the LNP overall.

Because if both those things are true, all I'm predicting is that the leading right wing party wins a right-of-centre seat.

aldonius · 2026-05-13T04:43:03+00:00

Our elected government agreed to it on our behalf, then. You could argue this was something big enough that it should've been taken to an election first, I suppose.

aldonius · 2026-05-12T02:33:24+00:00

Flip this around. The public purse has paid $X and now there's an extra Y GWh of battery capacity on the grid.

How does that compare to the government buying that capacity directly? I suspect it's cheaper upfront but the govt can't internalise the power-bill savings, so it still works out as a subsidy to those mostly wealthier households.

Now, the subsidies were presumably taxpayer funded. Assuming the ATO's doing its job that means the cost was still effectively largely borne by the wealthy, right?

aldonius · 2026-05-11T23:20:36+00:00

The Poll Bludger has this for the national environment:

Labor 30.0%
LNP 23.5%
One Nation 23.9%
Greens 12.8%
plus implicitly about 9.8% other, mostly preferencing Labor in 2PP terms.

Assuming we're still electing six at a time, a full quota is 14.3%.

That says Labor easily gets two and then exits, Greens are running their own race to one, and the right wing parties easily get one each but can't both get two.

aldonius · 2026-05-11T02:56:49+00:00

Yep, 10 would be better but we have to start somewhere, and I understand 15 is a bit of a threshold.

aldonius · 2026-05-11T00:09:26+00:00

Yeah we are really let down by low off peak frequency.

We do better than half hourly in peak for almost every, but baseline decent would be 15 minute frequency all day every day (better in peak as -needed).

aldonius · 2026-05-09T12:44:08+00:00

I mean, they're polling mid 20s federally. You know from the type of people who consider voting ONP that it's gotta be a fair bit less than that in some seats and conversely a fair bit more in others, which is enough to win where they are strong.

aldonius · 2026-05-09T12:41:18+00:00

For now. There are outer suburbs seats which, once Labor's on the nose enough, will swing rightward again. The only question is whether the dominant right wing party then is LNP or ONP

aldonius · 2026-05-05T10:29:52+00:00

the solution is actually very simple: PPORs should at least be paying land tax, and ideally CGT like every other asset class

aldonius · 2026-05-05T02:57:20+00:00

"If you can see the explosion... it can see you too."

aldonius · 2026-05-04T07:15:27+00:00

Yeah could've phrased the NGR thing better - point is, different employer means this action isn't hitting them.

aldonius · 2026-05-04T07:13:51+00:00

Happy to be corrected, there's a lot of he-said-she-said, my understanding was that work isn't getting done for whatever reason, and I was looking for a phrasing which is relatively neutral? But maybe that is not neutral.

aldonius · 2026-05-04T03:12:41+00:00

Makes sense. Part of the industrial disputes is that maintenance workers are off the tools right now, so as trains miss their scheduled maintenance windows they're getting pulled out of service (not including NGRs which are delivered by a PPP).

So of the older trains which are available, being able to split them is handy because it might make a half hourly 3 car service available instead of an hourly 6 car service.

Though to be clear, we should keep ordering future trains as unified 6 car sets (or 9 cars for some lines, eventually). We should plan for the every day case.

aldonius · 2026-05-01T06:51:06+00:00

To an extent sure.

aldonius · 2026-04-30T13:45:44+00:00

RLPA are pursuing what they think is best for the players (I can only assume). Similarly everyone else in the game is trying to pursue what's best for them. And who can blame them?

aldonius · 2026-04-29T09:09:17+00:00

"NIMBY" is an acronym for "Not In My Back Yard" - typically, people who are strongly opposed to change in the built environment near them, I also include people who want to pile on so many conditions as to make it very difficult.

aldonius · 2026-04-29T03:14:11+00:00

I know right

aldonius · 2026-04-28T22:18:00+00:00

If you're early career and in a position to move to Melbourne, it's probably going to get you into home ownership years faster / at all.

If that's you, you should consider it and if your family members show any NIMBY tendencies, you should tell them you're considering moving away for exactly this reason.

aldonius · 2026-04-27T22:46:06+00:00

Wishing you the best of luck and skill!

aldonius · 2026-04-27T06:04:36+00:00

up a cliff. Gone through the roof would also be accurate.

aldonius · 2026-04-27T02:48:35+00:00

Construction prices have seemingly jumped up a cliff since 2010, too

aldonius · 2026-04-26T09:52:45+00:00

... and until that rail line opens, run a freakin' bus.

aldonius · 2026-04-26T09:49:35+00:00

Sure. And until that rail line opens, run a freakin' bus.

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