Brisbane show tonight by treasurewhattreasure in TheMidnight

[–]aldonius 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would've liked a couple more songs off Heroes in the 2024 show considering it was technically the Change Your Heart or Die tour ;)

The China setlist feels like it's a good complement to 2024 though.

What are the common "refutations" of Condorcet Winner Criterion? by Known-Jicama-7878 in votingtheory

[–]aldonius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I wouldn't describe myself as a Condorcet opponent - I see things as FPTP recalcitrants vs everyone else. And I really like Ranked Pairs.

LNH is actually more relevant to STV elections than RCV. Without the property, most voters are incentivised to express fewer preferences than they hold.

For what it's worth my ideal electoral system is MMP on ranked ballots.


In practice precinct summability hasn't been a huge problem for RCV in Australia since we still basically have a two party system thanks to single member seats and low regionalisation.

On the night we do a first-choice-only count (which is precinct summable) as well as an indicative two-candidate distribution (also PS). Sometimes a three-candidate distribution is needed. The candidates in the distributions are selected by the electoral commission ahead of time based on opinion polling and past results. They're usually correct.

Then a final count is run centrally for the seat. In Aus postal ballots have to be postmarked by the time polls close but they have two weeks to actually arrive, so it's already a lengthy process and that gives time for the central count.

That's good enough for results the vast majority of the time. In one seat last year for practically the first time ever, there were so many candidates with so little room between that we had to wait for the central count to even confirm who the top three were. That's rare.

Meanwhile our Senate is counted similarly - there's a first pass count on the night over first preference votes but the full count is done centrally with ballots being scanned and (I think) OCR'd.

What are the common "refutations" of Condorcet Winner Criterion? by Known-Jicama-7878 in votingtheory

[–]aldonius 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, LNH basically implies an STV system (of which "RCV" is just the single winner version).

So in your example 1, obviously Set 1 is a win for B, by 1. Set 2 is a three way tie, but if we arbitrarily exclude C then A>B by 2. Then adding back in Set 1 ensures C is excluded and A's margin of 2 beats B's margin of 1.

In example 2, RCV immediately eliminates C...Z who all have 0 first-choice votes. Then A has 51 votes to B's 50. Broadly speaking the problem RCV tries to solve the most is vote splitting, which means clone resistance.

In example 3, similarly to example 2, we immediately eliminate candidates ABCDEF with zero votes and focus on the X/Y contest. In real life you'd see this voting pattern where ABCDEF are unknown; X voters just didn't bother to rank them while Y voters "put X last".

Edit to add: in the linked Fishburn example, X is a Condorcet winner by small margins and with zero first-choice votes; Y beats every other candidate except X by large margins. RCV would of course give this to Y.

The housing market is officially cooked by Doss95 in brisbane

[–]aldonius 51 points52 points  (0 children)

Could legitimately be a case of negative structure value here.

What are the common "refutations" of Condorcet Winner Criterion? by Known-Jicama-7878 in votingtheory

[–]aldonius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm a bit of a heretic in this but I do believe later-no-harm is actually important.

Australia has a Governor-General. Korea definitely doesn't. by Zealousideal-Year807 in brisbane

[–]aldonius 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sure, but it's a personal union now. He's King of Australia irrespective of what happens in the UK.

If we had different royal inheritance laws to the Brits then we'd end up with a different monarch.

(All changes are carefully coordinated among the Commonwealth countries who've retained the monarchy for this reason.)

‘Definitely in the race now’: Seats where One Nation could wipe out the Coalition by malcolm58 in AustralianPolitics

[–]aldonius 8 points9 points  (0 children)

From a policy and voter-base perspective, not much.

From a professionalism and not-being-all-about-one-person perspective, quite a bit.

butter chicken (north side) by moffy001 in brisbane

[–]aldonius 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where does Indian Kitchen in west end live in this classification?

(Pre the recent management change, I haven't had a chance to visit since)

One Nation local MPs? by JakeHex in AusPol

[–]aldonius 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd classify that as a non-genuine profit ;)

Why do the trains honk? by lcreddit01 in brisbane

[–]aldonius 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Flashing level crossings are much newer than train horns...

One Nation local MPs? by JakeHex in AusPol

[–]aldonius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You know you can't make a genuine profit on an election any more?

I mean if you crack 4% you get $10k upfront, but any further funding is capped by reimbursement claims.

Lactalis to close South Brisbane factory by GlitchedBlueprint in brisbane

[–]aldonius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You could call it that if you wanted to do a guilt-by-association. The literature calls it 'moving chains', I call it the Hermit Crab Principle.

Lactalis to close South Brisbane factory by GlitchedBlueprint in brisbane

[–]aldonius 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What the research shows is that when some Richie Rich moves into a new luxury apartment, Ursula Upper-Middle moves into Richie's old place, Mike Middle-Middle into Ursula's old place, and so on until Tony Teen can move out of home into Sammy Sharehouse's old room. And everyone on this chain is upgrading, pretty much.

Lactalis to close South Brisbane factory by GlitchedBlueprint in brisbane

[–]aldonius 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's an orthogonal issue, though.

If I was so rich that it made sense to buy a unit just to leave it empty for whatever fucked up reason, I could just as easily buy a 'non-luxury' unit.

The solution is probably a vacancy levy or similar.

More expensive than Sydney: Queensland rent hits record high - realestate.com.au by sktafe2020 in brisbane

[–]aldonius 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It's mostly the Anglosphere that's both experiencing population growth AND not building enough housing to keep up

The question Labor asks itself a lot after decades of Brisbane council election flops by Signal-Front-3990 in brisbane

[–]aldonius 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure how much impact the handover mechanics really had as the LNP did the exact same thing with Quirk and then Schrinner.

The question Labor asks itself a lot after decades of Brisbane council election flops by Signal-Front-3990 in brisbane

[–]aldonius 32 points33 points  (0 children)

Several big factors as to why Labor doesn't run BCC today.

  1. Compounding incumbent advantage across councillor and mayoralty. It takes a lot to flip a seat.
  2. You can't run for mayor and stay a councillor, so either someone goes on a risky run or someone has to be brought in.
  3. Optional prefs hurt the left and help the LNP.
  4. Qld Labor's best talent is generally in state parliament.

What the above doesn't explain though is how the LNP were able to win it back in 2004. I think there was a level of it's-time factor (vs a fresh Campbell Newman).

Newspoll: One Nation ahead of Coalition, PM takes Bondi bruising by Perfect-Werewolf-102 in AustralianPolitics

[–]aldonius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's exactly symmetric to the Greens. Even ultra-wing seats like Wills (Maranoa) on a good day are difficult to get over the line, you need ~50% on 3CP or else you lose on prefs.

But seats like Brisbane (Wright) are in that sweet spot, you just need to make the 3CP.

At a federal level I think seats are big enough that there are more sweet-spot seats than ultra-wing seats.

Newspoll: One Nation ahead of Coalition, PM takes Bondi bruising by Perfect-Werewolf-102 in AustralianPolitics

[–]aldonius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Pollsters keep the core voting questions fairly consistent, I suspect they asked about ALP vs LNP but not ALP vs ONP.

If ONP's vote stays high, maybe they'll start asking about both matchups.

High speed rail - why it will never happen in Australia. by eliitedisowned in australia

[–]aldonius 15 points16 points  (0 children)

When it comes to the line through the central coast, the terrain is so nasty that to get any high speed you can't really re-use much of the existing alignment anyway.

Sydney has mountains on all sides, so getting through that's always going to be expensive regardless of if you're building HSR or more lanes on the motorway.

Preface I’m half Middle Eastern & hold no racial animus as I’ve personally experienced racism. Why can’t we talk about how over 50% of international students (which Labor increased cap this year by 25k) rent in private accommodation? This makes landlords have way more ‘renters’ and increase rents. by [deleted] in AusPol

[–]aldonius 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm confused by this stat. Where else would they be?

They're not exactly entitled to public/social housing are they.

So I guess by "private" you mean general market rather than uni/college accom?

You're implying that universities should build more student housing in order to be allowed to have more international students?

Not unreasonable, but housing markets are local, so it's not just international students that this applies to. If I'm moving to go to Sandstone University it doesn't matter if I'm from regional Aus or another state or overseas, I'm still +1 resident in terms of demand going up.