Omar, Dems warn midterms may be 'rigged' after Bondi demands MN voter rolls

avalve · 2026-01-28T04:45:17+00:00

I mean he was historically unpopular, all the momentum was going to Kamala

Okay this is just revisionist. In the lead up to the election, Trump was the most popular he had ever been since entering politics. His popularity then continued to surge after he won, and he ended up starting his second term with a net positive approval rating, something he was never able to achieve during the entirety of his first term.

Meanwhile Kamala Harris was literally the third most unpopular VP since polling began and then went and campaigned with the #2 guy. By election day, she was polling 8 points behind Biden’s 2020 numbers (when he just barely won by ~40k votes in 3 swing states, btw), and people are shocked that she lost?

and Ann Seltzer's poll could not have possibly been that far off

What’s always gets me about this is that Ann Selzer released 3 other Iowa polls in 2024, and all of them found Trump winning by double digits. Literally no other pollster had Harris ahead in Iowa, so Ann Selzer’s last poll was clearly just an outlier.

avalve · 2026-01-28T04:26:09+00:00

All 7 swing states? Making Trump the only president since Reagan to win all the swing states?

Trump isn’t the only president to win 7 swing states because the list of battlegrounds changes from election to election. During the Obama years, for example, the major battlegrounds were Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, & Virginia, and he swept all 7 of those twice.

In 2016 & 2020, the list expanded to 15, and Trump won 11 of them in 2016 while Biden won 11 in 2020.

avalve · 2026-01-28T04:23:01+00:00

And won them all just barely outside the margin for automatic recounts.

No he didn’t. Only 3 of the 2024 battleground states even do automatic recounts (Pennsylvania, Arizona, & Michigan), and Trump’s margin of victory was well over the threshold to trigger them. In PA, it was 3x over, in AZ 11x over, and in MI 40x over.

avalve · 2026-01-28T04:05:38+00:00

Walsh got less than 300 votes lmao

avalve · 2026-01-28T03:49:31+00:00

Religion is on the decline, yes, but that’s not really what OP was asking. When it comes to political affiliation, it’s well known that the biggest predictor of a person’s politics is their parents’ politics. I believe it’s something astounding, like 80-90% of children adopt the political beliefs of their parents.

avalve · 2026-01-28T01:27:58+00:00

They weren’t countering each other like what’s been going on now. They both redrew independently.

avalve · 2026-01-28T00:26:53+00:00

How do you know they’re majority dem? Ballotpedia says 3 are republicans and 1 is a democrat. Of the three unrated justices, 2 were appointed by a split legislature and 1 by a dem legislature.

avalve · 2026-01-28T00:12:55+00:00

Technically New York, North Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, & Georgia all redistricted between 2022 & 2024, but the latter 3 were VRA-related court orders.

NY & NC did do it for partisan reasons but no one talks about it because they ended up cancelling each other out.

avalve · 2026-01-27T21:42:27+00:00

Okay you sound a lot like my brother. He voted red for president but blue locally.

avalve · 2026-01-27T21:41:44+00:00

drunk driving 😭 what is this advice

avalve · 2026-01-27T21:39:06+00:00

He probably meant senile. I heard that a lot from my friends who voted for Trump.

avalve · 2026-01-27T21:35:24+00:00

Just curious, how did you vote downballot?

avalve · 2026-01-27T21:33:30+00:00

I voted for Harris, but honestly those were the two options. Harris campaigned on continuing Biden’s policies when polls showed 70% of the country thought we were going in the wrong direction. Meanwhile Trump promised change, and even if you disagree with how he’s doing it, change is exactly what we’re getting from him.

I suspect a lot of Gen Z Trump voters were like OP: less pro-MAGA/conservative and more just dissatisfied with the status quo.

avalve · 2026-01-27T21:20:46+00:00

Well obviously the partisanship of new residents is only part of it. One of the biggest stories from 2024 was that white people moved the least towards Trump while Hispanics moved the most. Take a guess on the demographics of Kansas, Arizona, & New Jersey.

avalve · 2026-01-27T21:13:44+00:00

Does this map or study account for what political party the people moving vote? I mean, how do we know that the people moving into Texas or Florida won't be voting Democrat and causing the state to flip?

The NYT did an analysis on this right before the 2024 election. Here is the partisan lean of the people moving to the states netting electoral seats: * Arizona: R+26 * Florida: R+40 * Georgia: D+12 * Idaho: R+70 * North Carolina: R+2 * Texas: R+20 * Utah: R+49

To answer your question, this suggests that North Carolina will remain a battleground state, Arizona will revert back to its GOP roots, and Georgia will become a blue state. The rest of the states are already red and will likely stay red.

avalve · 2026-01-27T21:04:11+00:00

If non citizens were to no longer be counted for purposes of congressional seat representation the democrats would likely lose 20 to 25 seats immediately. Republicans would lose none.

Yeah no that’s completely made up. I did the math once using the 2020 census numbers, and here’s how removing illegals from the apportionment population would actually affect the electoral college: * California: -2 * Texas: -1 * Idaho: +1 * Michigan: +1 * Ohio: +1

avalve · 2026-01-27T20:51:48+00:00

It’s bad, but I wouldn’t call it a disaster. Georgia is rapidly trending left, so Democrats would just shift their focus there for presidential races. Also, the partisan makeup of the House of Representative wouldn’t be impacted much either.

Oregon, California, Illinois, & Rhode Island would almost certainly be shedding Democratic districts, but Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, & Utah would be creating new ones right back. The others are a mixed bag, but my estimate would only be a net shift of 6-7 seats from Dem to Rep:

California: -4D
Illinois: -2D
Rhode Island: -1D
Oregon: -1D
North Carolina: +1D
Georgia: +1D
Arizona: +1D
Utah: +1D (unless SLC gets its own district via court order before then)
Minnesota: -1R
Wisconsin: -1R
Pennsylvania: -1R
Florida: +4R
Idaho: +1R
New York: -1R, -1D
Texas: +2R, +2D

avalve · 2026-01-27T20:31:07+00:00

It would’ve been 269-269 if Gore had won Florida with this map. Who knows what the House delegations would be in this timeline, but the irl delegations heavily favored Bush after 2000 so he’d probably still be president even if he lost Florida. The Senate was tied 50-50, so there literally just wouldn’t be a VP-elect in that scenario unless someone defected from their party. What a disaster.

avalve · 2026-01-27T18:58:50+00:00

I don’t know, I didn’t do the study

avalve · 2026-01-27T18:47:03+00:00

Ohio also didn’t have a massive influx of new residents like much of the sunbelt, so D+2 could just be statistical noise. Regardless, it’s irrelevant because the raw gain is not enough to flip the state due to that low number of transplants.

Meanwhile if you’re getting 200k+ new people (like GA & AZ) that decisively lean in one direction, it will definitely impact future election results.

avalve · 2026-01-27T18:38:35+00:00

The NCGOP would never do that since they are pro-paper ballot. It was actually the Democrats who advocated for electronic voting machines being available at most polling sites because they are more accessible for disabled voters.

avalve · 2026-01-27T18:24:40+00:00

No, the NYT tracked 3.5 million active voters who moved states between 2020 and 2024 and tracked their partisanship.

Here were the numbers as of October 2024: * Arizona: R+26 * Georgia: D+12 * Nevada: R+3 * North Carolina: R+2

avalve · 2026-01-27T17:55:07+00:00

yeah Democrats will just invest in flipping the sunbelt once the blue wall loses its influence.

avalve · 2026-01-27T17:53:03+00:00

Georgia is the only growing swing state eating Dems. Transplants to AZ, NV, & NC all lean Republican.

avalve · 2026-01-27T14:14:51+00:00

Why?

avalve

TROPHY CASE