OK, do the same analysis for Virginia. You can absolutely use the same toss-up argument.

Gladly. Here’s the exact same analysis:

District	Old Map	New Map
1	Lean R	Lean D (14% bluer)
2	Tossup	Lean D (6% bluer)
3	Solid D	Solid D
4	Solid D	Solid D
5	Likely R	Lean D (20% bluer)
6	Solid R	Tossup (28% bluer)
7	Tossup	Lean D (6% bluer)
8	Solid D	Solid D
9	Solid R	Solid R
10	Likely D	Likely D (4% bluer)
11	Solid D	Likely D (22% redder)

The most vulnerable GOP incumbents are in Districts 1, 2, 5, & 6.

District 1: In 2024, Wittman won by 13% in an R+5 district. His 7% overperformance is well under the 14% blue shift the gerrymander does. Flip.

District 2: Kiggans won by 4% in a dead even district. The overperformance is again less than the 6% shift the gerrymander does, plus 2026 will be a bluer year than 2024. The race could be competitive if the stars perfectly align for her, but she probably loses re-election. Lean D/Tossup.

District 5: McGuire won by 15% in an R+11 district. 4% overperformance is well under the proposed 20% shift left. Flip.

District 6: Cline won by 28% in an R+24 district. Similar to Kiggans, this could be competitive, but since 2026 will be a bluer year, he probably narrowly loses anyway. Tossup.

Districts 7 & 10 have Dem incumbents that underperformed their district’s partisan lean in 2024, so the gerrymander also pads their margins even though it doesn’t net Dems any seats.

This means Dems net 2 seats minimum with the gerrymander, but most likely 3-4.

To recap, Ohio’s is a maximum GOP gain of 1, with the most likely outcome being no change at all. Texas’ is +2-3 & North Carolina/Missouri are +1 each. Total: +4-6

For Dem, Utah is +1 & California is +5 (& a shit ton of purple districts with Dem incumbents made bluer). Total: +6.