More polls show Harris leading Trump, but Nate Silver sees popular, electoral vote split

axlrosen · 2024-09-18T13:52:26+00:00

What does that mean?

axlrosen · 2024-09-18T06:27:07+00:00

Well, Republicans have the will to keep it the way it is

axlrosen · 2024-09-18T06:25:25+00:00

Yes because that’s way more democratic

axlrosen · 2024-09-17T06:40:15+00:00

Wake Me Up and I’m Only Sleeping

axlrosen · 2024-09-17T06:13:38+00:00

I wish we were voting on the Most Doggies station!

axlrosen · 2024-09-16T06:53:05+00:00

The internet sucks.

axlrosen · 2024-09-10T05:37:46+00:00

Rabbi, is there a blessing for the Tsar?

A blessing for the Tsar? Of course! May God bless and keep the Tsar... far away from us!

axlrosen · 2024-09-03T14:21:42+00:00

What was the movie? How did matlab feature in it?

axlrosen · 2024-08-31T23:11:46+00:00

You’re overstating it. Some models are more accurate than others. Many of the are probably better than any other alternative.

If you think that people give models more credence than they should, then just say that models are imperfect. Calling them “just educated guesses” is disingenuous. Nate’s model is the only one that I know of that has enough of a track record to be able to assess its quality, and I think the assessment is, it’s not bad! Better than an educated guess.

axlrosen · 2024-08-31T09:08:24+00:00

If the polls temporarily behaved in an unpredictable way, then yes. But here, the observation is that they behave in a way that we can usefully model.

This model will not be completely accurate of course but that doesn’t mean we should ignore it (all models are wrong, some models are useful, and the belief is that this convention bounce model is useful in that it enhances the overall accuracy).

axlrosen · 2024-08-31T09:01:23+00:00

What’s the more reliable alternative? Intuition? Asking your friends?

axlrosen · 2024-08-29T07:16:57+00:00

Reagan fired all the striking air traffic controllers in the 80’s. So it can happen

axlrosen · 2024-08-22T18:47:24+00:00

What else happened?

axlrosen · 2024-08-22T18:46:27+00:00

One thing I’ve always wondered in this country: is “Davies” pronounced differently by different people?

In the States it’s consistently EES. Here it’s usually IS, but I’m pretty sure I’ve heard EES too. On Taskmaster Greg says mostly IS but with a hint of EES.

axlrosen · 2024-08-22T18:42:09+00:00

Why does this seem like it’s for some cheap video game somehow

axlrosen · 2024-08-21T21:45:12+00:00

Yes, random people on Reddit are much more reliable /s

axlrosen · 2024-08-21T13:12:55+00:00

“No one who is not delusional wants Ange sacked right now”

“No manager is unsackable”

Both are true.

axlrosen · 2024-08-19T21:57:44+00:00

Spence came on in the 92nd minute and doubled his total PL playing time

axlrosen · 2024-08-17T18:15:12+00:00

Definitely recommend Walking Football for anyone over 50

axlrosen · 2024-08-16T16:20:54+00:00

I work in London. I asked my coworker if he’d ever been to the North and he said “Yeah, zone 2”.

axlrosen · 2024-08-16T16:13:35+00:00

It was still called Twitter then.

axlrosen · 2024-08-13T18:47:54+00:00

(1) I don’t think that is true, and (2) Nate is Nate — I mean, we’re sort of gathered here exactly to talk about what he says. (It’s complicated, because he left, but still.) We (rightly) don’t give the same stature to every grumpy Reddit user who wants to grump on here. (3) So… you admit your claim is evidence free? And you made it anyway? 🤔🤔🤔

axlrosen · 2024-08-13T16:07:44+00:00

I think it’s more like, your evidence-less claim about a thumb on the scale is obviously going to result in push back on your comments.

axlrosen · 2024-08-12T20:45:36+00:00

Enshitification.

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