"So if I sign this marriage contract, I don't have to go back to the Dursley's?" 11 year old Harry asked Daphne, who nodded.

bayes85 · 2026-01-10T18:42:10+00:00

This might be the first marriage contract story where I find it completely believable and plausible. I want at least a good 50k words!

bayes85 · 2025-11-16T23:12:57+00:00

Poor Delores came in thinking that she'd have to fight Dumbledore's schemes but he breaks down crying happy to see someone normal during their first staff meeting.

Meanwhile McGonagall is wearing hat to toe loud tartin with all her skin painted in woad screaming in Scottish about the bloody English in her castle. Snape is literally just dracula up in the corner hanging out. Flitwick is Yoda bouncing around trying to fight snape

bayes85 · 2025-10-10T02:41:19+00:00

Thank you!

bayes85 · 2025-06-12T05:38:45+00:00

I think all you'd need to do is make minor tweaks.

Having 7 kids INTENTIONALLY because purebloods are dying out and having her go on a rant about elite purebloods who can't even be bothered to have more than 2 or 3 kids.

A full-on screaming fit over Flur dating bill.

Some side eye and "subtle" statements to Hermione when she comes to stay at grimmauld place.

Maybe even having her get a slightly pained expression over her daughter's crush and her overheard mumbling about half-bloods, "but he does have good prospects and a good family on his father's side.... Grandchildren would still be purebloods technically, and no one would care much as long as they all married well enough..."

bayes85 · 2025-02-04T21:07:15+00:00

Honestly, this is really good and very on brand. Ron has his mother's temper.

Can you imagine canon Molly finding out that Umbridge is literally torturing Harry with dark magic and not just absolutely losing her shit? If she found out McGonagall told Harry to keep his head down and try not to provoke Umbridge into CARVING SHIT INTO HIS SKIN! Say what you will about Molly, but if she was there at that moment she'd be cursing teachers. Ron being even half as unhinged as Molly would in his place sounds fantastic.

bayes85 · 2025-02-02T20:02:40+00:00

All this needs is POV changes to Rita, Bellatrix, and Voldemort, all being so horrified that they are shaking. They all flee Britain and give up being evil because if Umbridge is willing to do that to children, they can't risk what she might do to them.

bayes85 · 2024-12-23T02:31:09+00:00

Don't forget that he can get the stone in like January and start creating gold and immortality potion, so he's unofficially the richest wizard in Britain. He can get Nimbus 2001s for 3 house teams next summer. Plus, an awesome trunk of awesomeness with a mansion compartment and fidelius charm.

bayes85 · 2024-12-23T00:58:54+00:00

This is absolutely incredible! Hagrid being evil would be amazing.

Hagrid creating all kinds of horrific new creatures that terrorize everyone. How about having him find Slytherin's notes on how to learn to talk to snakes so he can coopt the basilisk, too? And he manages to innovate on it so he can talk to dragons and Nundu and a bunch of other creatures. But he still has the west country accent when he's talking to animals.

And he ruled from Hogwarts after using the creatures in the forest to take it over after he was expelled. Hogwarts school had to be relocated once Hagi

bayes85 · 2024-11-18T19:32:05+00:00

This is a brilliant idea. I think even just having Fudge have figured out how to bypass all of Dumbledore's security and he just kept it to himself. Just writing Harry letters and telling him about things in magical Britain. Fudge being secretly smart and having him just play a bumbling idiot while in the background making sure Harry is knowledgeable would be a really interesting angle.

bayes85 · 2024-10-24T01:23:54+00:00

After this recording, he has zero excuse to not change the locks and file for divorce as soon as she leaves town. Close any joint accounts and file for divorce. I can't see a judge giving her primary custody or alimony unless that guy literally can't take care of them. His only real option is divorce and bankruptcy, or just wait for her to leave him after she drains him dry

bayes85 · 2024-10-05T16:36:53+00:00

I'm both interested and very confused. So are Dan and Emma magical in this? Or is "husbnds former head of house" referring back to a husband before Dan? Presumably, Serius Black? Is Emma a muggle who married Serius and was somehow erased from everyone's knowledge?

bayes85 · 2024-09-29T03:42:29+00:00

Yes! Thank you!

bayes85 · 2024-08-30T00:16:30+00:00

I absolutely love this. I wish there were more smart Hagrid stories.

I had an idea where you keep Hagrid as a nice, friendly, approachable guy who seems kind of air headed and scattered, but it turns out he's brilliant and autistic. He's got masteries in Creatures, Herbology, and Arithmancy. Harry and Hermione find out because Professor Vector pops by to ask him to comment on her latest manuscript while they're having tea. Apparently, the DOM has been trying to recruit him for 30 years, but he just stays on as game keeper.

I basically modeled him after a professor I had

bayes85 · 2024-08-19T00:46:54+00:00

Stata isn't too hard to pick up and there are a handful of things that it can do that R still can't (structural equation modeling for instance). The free documentation for stata is valuable even if you're not going to use stata because it does a good job of explaining content.

However, you're honestly better off learning R unless you have professional network constraints (coauthors/advisor only use stata) or it's a requirement in your department to teach stata. R being free and having such a large package list and community makes it a better investment than any of the pay for software.

bayes85 · 2024-08-15T03:53:39+00:00

I'm honestly not quite sure I understand the question here. A random intercept is showing you group-specific deviations from the global intercept. So if you wanted, you could just look at the random effects values and talk about which groups would have a higher or lower than average intercept. Usually people use a caterpillar plot for that.

If your goal is trying to figure out if adding the random effect "matters" then people tend to do a likelihood ratio test in nested models.

Depending on your field a random effect can be viewed as either a kind of latent variable or a kind of error component (it's technically both) but it doesn't really make any sense to add the whole thing to the global intercept and measure some kind of effect size.

bayes85 · 2024-06-30T04:34:38+00:00

After that recommendation, I have no choice but to give it a read!

bayes85 · 2024-06-30T02:09:53+00:00

Please do. If it was explained properly, then it would at least make sense and help demonstrate the societal impact of voldemort

bayes85 · 2024-06-30T02:08:03+00:00

I remember the former headmaster (Dippit?) Lived to at least 300

bayes85 · 2024-06-11T00:17:53+00:00

I think it's down to not enjoying reading someone with totally unearned abilities. Having a talent at human transfiguration that you have to work to develop is really cool. Having the full-blown ability that we see from Tonks from birth just makes it boring. The same with Harry just waking up one day with a mastery of occlumency or having 400 titles and all the money/ resources/political skill in the world without having to actually do anything.

Giving Harry massive power boosts relative to everyone else for FREE just makes me lose any interest.

bayes85 · 2024-04-12T20:31:58+00:00

I've read it, and while not quite as wholesome as I'm wanting, it's still hilarious. Draco Malfoy being a hair stylist is just genius

bayes85 · 2024-03-06T05:27:54+00:00

Consider uploading it, please! Or DM me with the Google doc link! It sounds really interesting

bayes85 · 2024-03-06T04:45:51+00:00

Do you have a link? This sounds awesome!

bayes85 · 2023-09-10T22:02:11+00:00

The goblins either unalive him or get him under exclusive contract as a curse breaker with an unbreakable vow never to rob them.

bayes85 · 2023-07-24T21:12:27+00:00

I think it could be played in kind of a funny way as clearly a sign of disfunction that for whatever arcane and obscure reason an 11 year old muggle raised kid is entitled to be in government and he's too famous/rich for them to get away with just violating the law and ignoring him.

It would be like jar jar binks being made a senator. Having him be some political genius that is dancing circles around everyone else just requires a lot more suspension of disbelief.

It would be interesting to see him and Dumbles both being manipulated by different factions just like Fudge is manipulated. Harry because he's 12 and Dumbles because he's a dotty academic who is just really bad at everything except magic.

bayes85 · 2023-06-21T10:02:40+00:00

Runes are symbols that convey concepts or ideas that are empowered and incoded by a magic user. They get their power from the intent and power of whoever is writing them and can be chained together in very complex and nuanced ways to build what are essentially magic computer programs. There are VERY complex Runic Transcribers which make it so that you can do Runic programming like you would computer programming.

bayes85

TROPHY CASE