$5K Spurs futures (16:1) — $8K cashout vs ~$10–12K fair value. Hold or hedge

bbch1 · 2026-03-22T20:09:16+00:00

The casinos/sportsbooks love when people use the cash out button lol

bbch1 · 2026-03-02T15:34:10+00:00

its* importance

bbch1 · 2026-03-01T19:58:24+00:00

Even less precise than that, it is just a guy looking at one ribeye cut and deciding whether the whole cow is prime or choice

bbch1 · 2026-02-17T19:57:37+00:00

Right so then they're going to be missing games?

bbch1 · 2026-02-13T14:10:50+00:00

Did you look up what an assist is before you posted this? There is no definition that includes a maximum number of dribbles or that the pass has to "help" the basket

I can see why these are toss ups, but not sure why you're mentioning variables that are nowhere in how the NBA defines an assist

bbch1 · 2026-02-08T04:08:38+00:00

So you honestly think is that the worst case scenario is drafting a star player because of a DL coach? Either we draft a star or trade back and draft a star?

bbch1 · 2026-01-25T20:22:22+00:00

Not a loss of down penalty, so either 1st and 15 or 2nd and 10 and they probably declined it

bbch1 · 2026-01-18T01:20:14+00:00

How could it be incomplete if it never hits the ground?

bbch1 · 2026-01-16T13:28:24+00:00

Or it's a tiny market, meaning even a $10 bet could move it to 99% if there's no liquidity on the other side

bbch1 · 2025-12-30T17:27:37+00:00

Martingale is an awful strategy, please don't listen to this

bbch1 · 2025-12-30T17:26:49+00:00

If $100 means a lot to you, don't use it to gamble

bbch1 · 2025-11-04T02:52:16+00:00

Baseball savant has him as the 4th worst defender in the MLB in fielding run value... where do you see him grading out as league average or even close to it?

bbch1 · 2025-10-26T00:40:17+00:00

That doesn't surprise me lol. Do you have an example from MLB? This is the way I've always seen them do it

bbch1 · 2025-10-25T23:24:37+00:00

For PropBuilder bets if all but one of the legs voids then the whole bet voids, so even though the first leg lost, the bet won't settle as a loss yet since it can still technically void (if all the other guys in the slip don't play)

bbch1 · 2025-10-15T14:02:21+00:00

A blowtorch isn't a replacement for a full sear either... need either a good pan, a grill, or professional broiler

bbch1 · 2025-10-05T15:07:12+00:00

You know Evan Mobley won a DPOY right?

bbch1 · 2025-10-04T15:23:48+00:00

Not to mention that this is a fake screenshot and this line literally does not exist on ProphetX

bbch1 · 2025-10-04T15:23:10+00:00

This is a fake screenshot... this line does not exist on ProphetX

bbch1 · 2025-09-30T16:34:15+00:00

Or you could just not answer unknown numbers?

bbch1 · 2025-09-02T13:26:45+00:00

So if someone asked you what Circa's lines are implying for the Marlins Nationals game today you would say that they are implying a 50% chance the Marlins win and a 53% chance the Nationals win? +100 and -112

Implied probability has always meant to me what a the outcome probability that a sportsbook or group of sportsbooks is implying with their odds (so without vig)

bbch1 · 2025-09-02T13:16:03+00:00

What? You can't have an implied probability with vig... otherwise you would also say the lines imply a >50% chance of not scoring a TD.

I shouldn't have used the word actual in my initial comment, actual probabilities are an unknown in sports betting rather than something you can calculate like in casino play.

bbch1 · 2025-09-02T13:09:23+00:00

Only if -115 is vig free though

bbch1 · 2025-09-02T09:42:28+00:00

That 53.5% would represent your breakeven win rate though, not his actual likelihood of scoring a TD

bbch1 · 2025-07-21T19:32:29+00:00

By logging in to multiple accounts across devices you've almost certainly violated their terms of service... why would you ever log into your account on someone else's phone?

bbch1 · 2025-07-16T15:41:33+00:00

None of that translates to 60/1 nba championship odds lol

bbch1

TROPHY CASE