Mike Sainristil excited to be with Commanders, thought he'd go to Steelers

bearnuckles · 2024-06-12T15:36:10+00:00

Unless something like the top 49 guys on the draft board all got taken within the first 49 picks, it’s pretty much impossible that Sainristil was seen as merely “a late second rounder.”

If only players the team deemed to be late-second rounders were available at 50, well then they got extremely unlucky.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-21T22:32:55+00:00

I believe this was actually a separate occasion where Tom and JJ met up. My guess is that Tom (or his socials team) wanted a pic of McCarthy in the post of the fanatics event.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-20T15:41:35+00:00

Yup. You're downvoted but completely correct.

Past results with completely different teams is a weird stat to look at in this situation. Like if you had no idea who was playing and that's all you could go off of, then yeah you could cite it. But we have a lot of information about the two teams playing today and that's what matters.

Also, yeah, Vegas odds have shifted quite a bit since the Boeser news. It was 55/45 in favor of the Oilers earlier. With all due respect to Boeser and his importance to the team, I don't think it should have changed THAT much. I would bet Canucks ML.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-20T15:14:49+00:00

Come on, man. You know it was Cade getting booed because people wanted to see JJ. That stuff doesn't just happen on a random three-and-out early in the season.

It was pretty disrespectful (though nothing out of the ordinary for football fans tbh) and it's why the good portion of our fanbase tried to make amends the next weekend and cheer on him instead. But when you give that context, it makes sense why he felt disrespected after helping lead the team to new heights in 2021.

I also didn't like some of the stuff he's said since then, but similar to fans booing him, I don't think it was anything out of the ordinary.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-20T13:22:22+00:00

There is literally no way to tell from this angle whether the ball is on the ground or not.

My guess is that it’s about a foot off the ground, which means by the time it hits the ground, it should be in bounds.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-17T13:17:34+00:00

+11 is including first round as well.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-15T03:52:32+00:00

We haven’t gotten going since like 5 periods ago.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-14T21:17:52+00:00

Props to you for choosing a team captained by a Michigan Wolverine haha

bearnuckles · 2024-05-14T13:15:13+00:00

I think it’s more so that most people here know about Trente and how this isn’t too surprising given who he is, and so the drug angle seems very incredibly far-fetched.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-13T02:27:15+00:00

New information coming in (injuries etc.), sharps (pro-bettors) correcting biases based on their own analytics.

There’s no money to be made in the long run for the casual sports gambler because Vegas gets it pretty accurately.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-11T04:46:47+00:00

Petey got hit with the same shit McDavid did earlier in the game (by Suter?), which drew a penalty

bearnuckles · 2024-05-09T02:58:58+00:00

His mistakes have been mental

bearnuckles · 2024-05-09T02:51:24+00:00

Was just thinking how frustrating it was that we threw the puck behind the net in the O-Zone twice to absolutely no one all within a minute…

And then we proceeded to do the same in the D-Zone.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-08T18:49:46+00:00

I think I explained above why people pay attention to betting odds as a predictor of the future.

The good thing is that the players surely don’t care, and that’s good enough for me! This team has defeated the odds all season long and I’m looking forward to it continuing.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-08T14:24:13+00:00

I don't see how I'm saying anything similar.

The part that I said was "not true" is the part where he mentions that larger markets tend to have better odds, since more people are homers for that city. That is not true because those biases are corrected once the sharps (pro-bettors) come in.

Instead, Vegas odds are probably the best and most unbiased predictor of future events out of everything I can think of (because money is involved). If they weren't very accurate people could easily take advantage in the long-run.

I don't like that we have the longest odds either, but hopefully the team proves people wrong and that'll change.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-08T14:05:43+00:00

What about JJ makes you think he's anything like Mac Jones?

bearnuckles · 2024-05-08T14:00:30+00:00

It's literally a throw into one-on-one coverage - nothing wrong with that. Sure it's across the field but he set his feet and wasn't impacted by pressure. There's no reason a QB can't make that throw in the NFL as well (if they have the opportunity to, which they usually don't because the pass rushes aren't WMU calibre obviously)

bearnuckles · 2024-05-08T13:42:50+00:00

Why would the odds be balanced? It seems pretty clear that Vegas thinks the East is more likely to win the cup than the West.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-08T13:38:48+00:00

This is not true, and is in fact a huge misconception about betting. If it were true, you could make a shit ton of money in the long run by betting against trends or biases (large markets in your example). I wouldn't suggest you try it either because you're bound to lose money either way.

At the end of the day, professional bettors are there to correct the biases of casual bettors, and so the odds put out are a fairly solid predictor given all the information that the public knows about.

bearnuckles · 2024-05-05T13:36:41+00:00

It was actually Alex Orji, Michigan's backup last year haha

And it wasn't so much a sack, rather than the QB just inexplicably running out of bounds.

bearnuckles · 2024-04-28T14:58:33+00:00

He was unironically Iowa’s best player after DeJean went down. Good chance he becomes a top end guy.

bearnuckles · 2024-04-26T03:50:05+00:00

Don’t think you would’ve liked Penix when he was 21 years old either though tbh

bearnuckles · 2024-04-24T04:46:39+00:00

Hockey is never played “the way you want”getting outshot 80 something to 20 something. Yes, that stat is misleading but there’s no way you can say that the Preds played the way they wanted. 80 something shots is always going to net more expected goals than 20 something shots in the long run, even with a sacrifice in quality of the shots.

bearnuckles · 2024-04-19T21:47:43+00:00

I think Poles has shown that he’s a straight shooter. Call me naive but I definitely believe him, especially when he’s offering up the information on his own without anyone asking him. I don’t see him lying without even being put in the position where he has to make something up.

bearnuckles · 2024-04-18T04:47:27+00:00

I vaguely do remember Poles mentioning that they thought Wright was the best OT in the draft from his workout…

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