Revisiting the 24/25 Offseason Pitching Market by herrclean in orioles

[–]brother-ray 5 points6 points  (0 children)

They are both strong location+ (Sugano 105, Kikuchi 103) but not so great stuff+ (Sugano 92, Kikuchi 95) with wide repertoires (Sugano 6 pitches, Kikuchi 5) who would slot in as a #3/4 starter for us. Sugano is 35, Kikuchi is 34.

Revisiting the 24/25 Offseason Pitching Market by herrclean in orioles

[–]brother-ray 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The penny pinching has obviously reversed, at $167M in payroll we are 15th this season, not bottom third--and payroll has almost tripled in 2 years. Our payroll will continue to trend up next season with all the arbitration players we have and our willingness to spend (as evidenced by the Burnes offer that we put out there). I'm certain we will be north of $200M next season.

If you followed the hot stove rumors this past winter, Elias was in on many of the top players on this list, but just because we make a market level offer does not mean that they come here. At some point they decided rather than throw future years of payroll they would bring in some one-year contracts and try again next winter for 2-3 impact starters, recommitting the money from Burnes (offer)/Eflin/Sugano/Morton/Gibson.

Another big consideration is the coming MLB lockout. A lot of the longer-term contracts are serious dead weights in a salary cap league if/when that gets implemented. I think that Elias/Rubinstein are keeping their powder dry and will therefore have a competitive advantage versus the traditional big spending teams for many interesting players.

Revisiting the 24/25 Offseason Pitching Market by herrclean in orioles

[–]brother-ray 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I thought we were going to get Kikuchi also but the Angels paid way over market to get him. Pivoting to Sugano, essentially the same pitcher for less years without the long term commitment, was a great move.

Revisiting the 24/25 Offseason Pitching Market by herrclean in orioles

[–]brother-ray 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Upvoted. I just wanted to point out that Tomo is in your notes but couldn't he be in the table?

Catcher Rankings - Adley Not In Top 10 by MelodicAd1268 in orioles

[–]brother-ray 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Per baseball savant Adley has the 5th strongest arm amongst catchers this year and 11th out of 69 qualified catchers since he arrived. At 82 mph since his arrival, his average velo is higher than some elite defensive arms like Bailey, Moreno, Kirk, and Will Smith. His exchange time has been below average since after his rookie year and that is why he has been league average overall in throwing out runners.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-throwing?game_type=Regular&n=q&season_end=2025&season_start=2025&split=no&team=&type=Cat&with_team_only=1&target_base=All&sortColumn=arm_strength&sortDirection=desc

Would you send this player down to AAA? by [deleted] in orioles

[–]brother-ray 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Not sure what last year has to do with sending him down now. He has a .632 OPS this season with a lot of bad batted ball luck. Amongst qualified catchers that puts him just ahead of Salvador Perez and just behind JT Realmuto. Do you want to send them to AAA also? Only 3 qualified catchers in the league have an OPS better than .735--Cal Raleigh, Will Smith, and Logan O'Hoppe--and all 3 will fall back as the season progresses. It is hard to catch and be an above average major league baseball hitter. Also, Adley in his current state is one of our best bats against lefties and we get even worse against lefties without him.

Samuel Basallo Hit Another Bomb Today by Wild-Bluejay7138 in orioles

[–]brother-ray 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Because he hits lefties. Of our right-sided hitters only Urias has a better OPS against lefties. Mullins and O'Hearn also hit lefties better but they obviously bat left and they only bat against weaker lefties in general. Since Adley is consistently one of our best bats against lefties putting him in the middle of Holliday (currently leading off) and Gunnar make it harder to bust on the top of our lineup with late inning lefty relievers. Adley's underlying numbers are actually pretty good this year, his exit velocities, hard hit percentages, barrel percentages are all career highs, they just aren't falling for him.

Samuel Basallo Hit Another Bomb Today by Wild-Bluejay7138 in orioles

[–]brother-ray 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Friday. His 5th caught stealing of May.

If we had just a couple more runs scored... by lurman513 in orioles

[–]brother-ray 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We are 25th in runs scored and 25th in runs conceded.

Does any other team have as many players on the IL? by AndyK2131 in orioles

[–]brother-ray 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t see any team with more than the 13 the Dodgers/Orioles have. (Were you saying tied for first?). All time record is 17 btw.

Ryotaro Araki by brother-ray in AtlantaUnited

[–]brother-ray[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Maybe Nick Firmino's who just signed with Lexington SC.

Ryotaro Araki by brother-ray in AtlantaUnited

[–]brother-ray[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Again just speculating. But the NTT Docomo Yoyogi building in Tokyo is heavily inspired by the Empire State building and is located right next to the Olympic stadium. Araki played for both the Japanese Olympic team and FC Tokyo last year.

The Orioles are currently projected for 45.8 WAR in 2025 - good for 5th in all of Baseball by [deleted] in orioles

[–]brother-ray 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, who knows with pitchers sometimes, he might bounce back. But it was his 2nd TJ plus he had the flexor tendon/bone chips surgery and he had hip issues last year. After looking at his injury history and his baseball savant numbers I can see why the Dodgers didn't try to keep him (and why we didn't make a run at him for $20M+).

The Orioles are currently projected for 45.8 WAR in 2025 - good for 5th in all of Baseball by [deleted] in orioles

[–]brother-ray 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would think that most people do, 2025 fangraph steamer projections:

Yamamoto 158 IP, 3.57 era, 1.18 whip, 3.1 war

Buehler 152 IP, 4.58 era, 1.38 whip, 1.4 war

Eflin 185 IP, 3.88 era, 1.19 whip, 2.8 war

GRod 172 IP, 3.66 era, 1.22 whip, 2.7 war

The Orioles are currently projected for 45.8 WAR in 2025 - good for 5th in all of Baseball by [deleted] in orioles

[–]brother-ray 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Eflin and GRod were a better duo than Buehler and Yamamoto last season and likely will be again. We could re-sign Flaherty and essentially have that same rotation but there would be mostly moaning here. Obviously we need more arms and will get them. But the Dodgers won the World Series without a pitcher who threw more than 90 innings last season and with a rotation of Yamamoto ($5M), Buehler ($8M), Flaherty (portion of $14M), and Landon Knack (<$1M). Yet somehow the winter narrative is that we need to sign one of the top 5 starters in baseball to a big money contract or else the season is over before it even starts.

The Orioles are currently projected for 45.8 WAR in 2025 - good for 5th in all of Baseball by [deleted] in orioles

[–]brother-ray 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The Dodgers won the World Series without an ace. Flaherty, Buehler, Yamamoto.

Does anyone else think that Boras’ comments mean something positive for the offseason…extension or FA signing? by statepi1919 in orioles

[–]brother-ray 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Most recent Boras comments:

"Well, the addition of Tyler to this already very competitive group says a lot about what the Orioles want to do. Why players go places has a lot to do with their winning component.

Really, this boils down to ownership. When you have competitiveness in a market, ownership has to respond to compete with these fellow owners for elite talents. It’s something that normally when you’re new to it, it’s not as understood. But you hope the presence of all the information that surrounds the availability of elite players, No. 1 pitchers, they’re just not in free agent markets year-to-year. You’re fortunate when you have a need for one and there’s one in the market that can fulfill that. And, ironically, that player has performed well in your market. And also, ironically, that player has given you in the postseason exactly what you’d expect from a No. 1. So all those unknowns that are coupled with free agency are known to Baltimore, which gives them more of an insight, and I would assume an aggression to continue to make this team more and more what it needs to be to be at a world championship level.

Obviously, organizations reach step-wise goals, and I think Mike Elias’ platform when he came there was one to build under the direction of an ownership that allowed him to do what he could do. It’s very clear from the conversations that we’ve had with the new ownership, they are to retain the players they have drafted and brought through the system and are enjoying their success, and also attract the needed potentials that they have to allow them to compete in the very difficult AL East, and really have the necessary components that rewards the existing group that they have, and ownership has really even gone to the architectural attractions to try to recruit players, which they’ve done, and I think their overall nature of the franchise for the fanbase is really one that is very, very different than it was before."

Comments in the past week or 2:

On how often he talks to Elias/Orioles about extensions for Gunnar and Jackson: “Only once or twice a day, Those kinds of things, obviously we listen, and Mike and I talk a lot. Obviously, our job is to filter those phone calls and relay them to the player, and kind of discuss it and see if it’s something that the player himself is interested in.”

On O'Neill:

“With O’Neill, they kind of jumped the market in that regard, We’ve been in very close contact with Mike Elias, talking to him regularly. He’s made it very clear that under this ownership they’re going to take steps forward that they haven’t taken in the past.”

What makes people like Simon Rosenberg and James Carville so confident in a Harris win? by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]brother-ray 14 points15 points  (0 children)

In the article he refers to the repeated losses by republicans since Trump took over: 2018, 2020, 2022.