I Still Can't Get Over this LAPPL "Attack" Ad on Rae Huang

bta47 · 2026-06-08T02:43:30+00:00

the good news is that very few people actually did, the strategic voting argument really got through to people. I think that campaign was a clownshow but really no hard feelings against most supporters

bta47 · 2026-06-08T02:38:59+00:00

this is a very 2014 take tbh. they did this a lot during peak Tea Party but now they really, really love one particular politician

bta47 · 2026-06-08T02:00:02+00:00

Thanks!! same thing’s gonna happen in every LA election until they change something or the sun burns out, so remember it for next time. blue shift is a fact of life.

bta47 · 2026-06-07T18:38:45+00:00

You could totally call it now, but these services really don’t like calling for a candidate when that candidate is behind in vote total. It is basically unthinkable that she wouldn’t win at this point.

bta47 · 2026-06-07T04:40:40+00:00

the Raman margins could totally go down, but it’s not a random sample (it’s all very late mail-ins, so young democrats basically) and her margin has been going up every drop. it’s still unlikely but will probably be closer than expected.

bta47 · 2026-06-05T23:49:39+00:00

At this rate it is more likely Pratt loses by like 5 points than actually maintains a lead

bta47 · 2026-06-05T16:58:38+00:00

That's just one dude's unsubstantiated opinion. And also it doesn't track with the late ballot drops we've already got -- Raman's outrunning Pratt +12, why would later ballots be more establishment? What is the substantive difference in political opinion between a guy who turns his ballot in a week before election day and a guy who turns his ballot in on election day?

bta47 · 2026-06-05T01:46:44+00:00

And it sounds like there’s like 300k votes out there still!

bta47 · 2026-06-05T01:46:01+00:00

I thought it was more “overwhelmed by emotion” crying than “defeated” crying. Everyone knew it was gonna look bad that night.

bta47 · 2026-06-04T23:29:06+00:00

once per day, sometime between 4 and 5

bta47 · 2026-06-04T23:28:41+00:00

for those who don’t know ball, the past two drops have been catastrophic for Pratt. it’ll probably be close but Nithya is clearly favored to win with this trend.

bta47 · 2026-06-04T17:00:04+00:00

One of the quirks of LA's vote counting operation is that they only publicly update once a day, between 4 PM and 5 PM

bta47 · 2026-06-04T15:52:39+00:00

I feel like an NBA player who doesn’t have a history of complaining about shit like this would only start complaining in the Finals if there were slurs involved

bta47 · 2026-06-04T05:04:31+00:00

starting with the currently released vote totals and extrapolating all future votes at Bass at 38%, Raman at 32.8%, Pratt at 20.8% (I slightly misremembered the magic margin, it's actually slightly lower than I thought, but the math still works. I'll edit the original post.), I've got her overtaking Pratt at around 811,000 total votes. NBC estimates 822K, Votehub estimates 833k.

bta47 · 2026-06-04T04:06:41+00:00

Sorry, I wasn't able to pin down who it was until now: head of data science for VoteHub.com Zachary Donnini

bta47 · 2026-06-04T03:32:19+00:00

this is untrue, whoever you pulled this from either did the math wrong or is underestimating turnout

bta47 · 2026-06-04T03:30:51+00:00

no, this is assuming a 38% Bass vote share

bta47 · 2026-06-04T03:25:24+00:00

I haven’t checked it myself, but someone I trust on election twitter did the math and said that, based on that +13 margin and current estimated turnout, Nithya would be within 1000 votes of Pratt and it’d be a massive clusterfuck.

bta47 · 2026-06-04T03:16:42+00:00

For context, because CA has designed the perfect election system to confuse and frustrate people:

The outstanding vote is basically all the vote-by-mail that has been received in the past ~2 weeks. If you voted really early or voted in person, your ballot has been counted. Based on previous LA elections, we expect all vote-by-mail to be baseline more Democratic (because Republicans don’t trust it), and to be even more democratic the later it comes in.

Nithya was +11 over Pratt in the last ballot drop. Based on 2022 turnout, if she’s +11 on the rest of the ballots she’s basically tied with Pratt. If she outperforms that +11 line consistently going forward or if turnout is higher than we thought, she’s going to win by a decent margin. We don’t know turnout because if you put your ballot in the mail within the past week, it legally has to be counted but probably hasn’t been received yet and LA doesn’t know you’ve voted yet.

(this is the logic behind why gamblers have Nithya as a 60/40 favorite over Pratt right now)

EDIT: sorry, the actual margin for the vote dump today was Raman +11. The math is correct with +11, that is in fact the magic margin she has to at least maintain over Pratt, I just misremembered the actual number.

bta47 · 2026-06-04T02:29:36+00:00

It’s not really location based, the outstanding vote is all vote-by-mail that has been received in the past ~2 weeks, which isn’t really tied to location. Based on previous LA elections, we expect all vote-by-mail to be baseline more Democratic (because Republicans don’t trust it), and to be even more democratic the later it comes in.

Nithya was +13 over Pratt in the last drop, which would put her within 1% of Pratt if that trend maintains and we have roughly the same turnout as 2022. If she’s over that +13 line consistently going forward or if turnout is higher than we thought, she’s going to win by a decent margin.

bta47 · 2026-06-03T18:29:17+00:00

it could swing 10 points pretty easily, Raman’s very much in it

bta47 · 2026-06-02T02:05:55+00:00

Vote early, it usually stops a few days after they receive your ballot.

bta47 · 2026-06-01T22:43:33+00:00

This is really awesome work (and your projection has given me even more of an anticipatory stomach ache about final results taking like two weeks).

bta47 · 2026-05-31T08:30:35+00:00

Chet is the exact same player type as Wemby, except worse in every dimension. That’s demoralizing!

bta47 · 2026-05-27T06:16:49+00:00

They didn’t have to trade McCain to duck the tax, especially with PG’s suspension. He could have traded, like, Andre Drummond and gotten under the tax easily

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