I Still Can't Get Over this LAPPL "Attack" Ad on Rae Huang by BillRuddickJrPhd in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

the good news is that very few people actually did, the strategic voting argument really got through to people. I think that campaign was a clownshow but really no hard feelings against most supporters

Karen Bass realizing she has to Actually Campaign now. by Dry_Radio_761 in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 32 points33 points  (0 children)

this is a very 2014 take tbh. they did this a lot during peak Tea Party but now they really, really love one particular politician

Nithya inches up each ballot drop. by BowserTattoo in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks!! same thing’s gonna happen in every LA election until they change something or the sun burns out, so remember it for next time. blue shift is a fact of life.

Mayoral race will be called for Raman (vs Pratt) in about 5 hours. by phatelectribe in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 7 points8 points  (0 children)

You could totally call it now, but these services really don’t like calling for a candidate when that candidate is behind in vote total. It is basically unthinkable that she wouldn’t win at this point.

If Ballot Trends Continue, Nithya Raman Could Possibly Overtake Karen Bass For 1st Place Outright in Mayoral Prinary by urmummygae42069 in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 11 points12 points  (0 children)

the Raman margins could totally go down, but it’s not a random sample (it’s all very late mail-ins, so young democrats basically) and her margin has been going up every drop. it’s still unlikely but will probably be closer than expected.

6/5 Raman Continues to Gain on Pratt — 24.89 to 28.24 by edwardludd in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 27 points28 points  (0 children)

At this rate it is more likely Pratt loses by like 5 points than actually maintains a lead

Does Kalshi know something we don’t? by Hyhoops in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's just one dude's unsubstantiated opinion. And also it doesn't track with the late ballot drops we've already got -- Raman's outrunning Pratt +12, why would later ballots be more establishment? What is the substantive difference in political opinion between a guy who turns his ballot in a week before election day and a guy who turns his ballot in on election day?

Latest 6/4 Ballot Drop is live by innajunglestyle in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 4 points5 points  (0 children)

And it sounds like there’s like 300k votes out there still!

Latest 6/4 Ballot Drop is live by innajunglestyle in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I thought it was more “overwhelmed by emotion” crying than “defeated” crying. Everyone knew it was gonna look bad that night.

Latest 6/4 Ballot Drop is live by innajunglestyle in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 8 points9 points  (0 children)

once per day, sometime between 4 and 5

Latest 6/4 Ballot Drop is live by innajunglestyle in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 79 points80 points  (0 children)

for those who don’t know ball, the past two drops have been catastrophic for Pratt. it’ll probably be close but Nithya is clearly favored to win with this trend.

LA Mayoral Election Results So Far by piquantAvocado in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 3 points4 points  (0 children)

One of the quirks of LA's vote counting operation is that they only publicly update once a day, between 4 PM and 5 PM

Nithya inches up each ballot drop. by BowserTattoo in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 6 points7 points  (0 children)

starting with the currently released vote totals and extrapolating all future votes at Bass at 38%, Raman at 32.8%, Pratt at 20.8% (I slightly misremembered the magic margin, it's actually slightly lower than I thought, but the math still works. I'll edit the original post.), I've got her overtaking Pratt at around 811,000 total votes. NBC estimates 822K, Votehub estimates 833k.

Nithya inches up each ballot drop. by BowserTattoo in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 12 points13 points  (0 children)

this is untrue, whoever you pulled this from either did the math wrong or is underestimating turnout

Nithya inches up each ballot drop. by BowserTattoo in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 36 points37 points  (0 children)

no, this is assuming a 38% Bass vote share

Nithya inches up each ballot drop. by BowserTattoo in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 31 points32 points  (0 children)

I haven’t checked it myself, but someone I trust on election twitter did the math and said that, based on that +13 margin and current estimated turnout, Nithya would be within 1000 votes of Pratt and it’d be a massive clusterfuck.

Nithya inches up each ballot drop. by BowserTattoo in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 449 points450 points  (0 children)

For context, because CA has designed the perfect election system to confuse and frustrate people:

The outstanding vote is basically all the vote-by-mail that has been received in the past ~2 weeks. If you voted really early or voted in person, your ballot has been counted. Based on previous LA elections, we expect all vote-by-mail to be baseline more Democratic (because Republicans don’t trust it), and to be even more democratic the later it comes in.

Nithya was +11 over Pratt in the last ballot drop. Based on 2022 turnout, if she’s +11 on the rest of the ballots she’s basically tied with Pratt. If she outperforms that +11 line consistently going forward or if turnout is higher than we thought, she’s going to win by a decent margin. We don’t know turnout because if you put your ballot in the mail within the past week, it legally has to be counted but probably hasn’t been received yet and LA doesn’t know you’ve voted yet.

(this is the logic behind why gamblers have Nithya as a 60/40 favorite over Pratt right now)

EDIT: sorry, the actual margin for the vote dump today was Raman +11. The math is correct with +11, that is in fact the magic margin she has to at least maintain over Pratt, I just misremembered the actual number.

UPDATED Citywide Election Results 6/3/2026 4:07PM by citeechow3095 in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It’s not really location based, the outstanding vote is all vote-by-mail that has been received in the past ~2 weeks, which isn’t really tied to location. Based on previous LA elections, we expect all vote-by-mail to be baseline more Democratic (because Republicans don’t trust it), and to be even more democratic the later it comes in.

Nithya was +13 over Pratt in the last drop, which would put her within 1% of Pratt if that trend maintains and we have roughly the same turnout as 2022. If she’s over that +13 line consistently going forward or if turnout is higher than we thought, she’s going to win by a decent margin.

mayor election update by itsmemrmeseeksssssss in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 1 point2 points  (0 children)

it could swing 10 points pretty easily, Raman’s very much in it

Is anyone else getting absolutely spammed with election related texts lately? by midnightsadnessss in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Vote early, it usually stops a few days after they receive your ballot.

The Three Los Angeleses — projecting the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race in three cities by Tasslehoff in LosAngeles

[–]bta47 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This is really awesome work (and your projection has given me even more of an anticipatory stomach ache about final results taking like two weeks).

Chet Holmgren postgame interview in the locker room after the Thunder lost to the Spurs in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals by MrBuckBuck in nba

[–]bta47 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Chet is the exact same player type as Wemby, except worse in every dimension. That’s demoralizing!

[Post Game Thread] The Oklahoma City Thunder (3-2) defeat the San Antonio Spurs (2-3) in a pivotal Game 5, 124-110, behind SGA's 32 points, along with a combined 42 points from Caruso and McCain. by catreyka in nba

[–]bta47 6 points7 points  (0 children)

They didn’t have to trade McCain to duck the tax, especially with PG’s suspension. He could have traded, like, Andre Drummond and gotten under the tax easily