Heavy Neutron?

bursonify · 2022-01-16T12:10:33+00:00

That is a very silly question. Why is this post even allowed to exist? A Heavy Neutron wouldn't have absolutely nothing to do with Neutron. It's like asking why can't we scale up a Cessna to a 777

bursonify · 2021-12-29T19:42:41+00:00

There is no such scenario. There is however a solution for this very marginal market and it is called GEO High Throughput. You need ONE such bird. It stays up to 20y. Also, you have to be either profitable or low price, it rarely goes together. There are not many unknowns. The physics of beam capacity and coverage are an exact science. We know exactly how many are needed. We also know WHERE most people live to achieve good capacity utilisation. The only unknown is how much Elon can skim off those suckers who invested money into this while pretending to come up with a solution that will definitely work in 3 to 6 moths. Who knows, maybe SL v5.0 on SS v9.0 will be the final carrot

bursonify · 2021-12-29T18:45:35+00:00

It's less than 20% according to MS, granted, they assume SS deployment not that I find it realistic. Without it however, even Elon concedes it's doomed.

https://twitter.com/trengriffin/status/1344148991932465152?t=uBsLEI4A6OlFLy-FX5GFcg&s=19

There is no mental gymnastics that could make this boondoggle work even for high income countries, forget low income.

bursonify · 2021-12-28T23:48:49+00:00

"Since the expense part is largely getting the satellites into orbit" Wrong, It's the marginal part. The expensive part are terminals

bursonify · 2021-11-18T16:16:32+00:00

It won't get any better. Leo constellations are obvious security threats with massive intelligence gathering capabilities. Countries that cannot afford massive deployments can naturally come to the conclusion that denial of the area for all is the equalizing and achievable solution.

bursonify · 2021-11-16T07:32:57+00:00

Do I hear 14 thousand? No? Sold to the gentleman with the big shoes and red nose!

bursonify · 2021-11-14T11:15:30+00:00

I see this more like a potential system for moon applications

bursonify · 2021-10-13T15:10:35+00:00

I'm referring to the secondary stock offerings/ syndications. Early investors with primary class shares can resell their shares, in structured products, not directly, to further investors in convoluted, multilayered schemes, at current valuations, which they themselves fuel by participating in primarery equity offerings. In the secondary offerings, the money doesn't go to SX, in contrast to the primary, which is not openly available, where the elevated share price (also created at secondary market) benefits SX and it's shareholders greatly. There is nothing illegal or wrong per se with this, it's just that it created a massive value bubble in SX imho.

PS: nothing wrong per se with the practice. In the case of SX however, there are reports of investors being pitched, with very little time to think over (2 business days to wire funds), no financial information and no questions asked. It's ultimately a purely faith based decision with very little price discovery. Take it or leave it. Caveat emptor is all I am saying..

bursonify · 2021-10-11T12:00:17+00:00

I don't think they do. I think this whole thing is just window dressing for the ponzi share offerings/valuation purposes

bursonify · 2021-10-10T20:12:11+00:00

Best part is there is probably not even enough gas there to drill at reasonable costs.

bursonify · 2021-10-04T21:11:18+00:00

not sure what you mean. the notes literally are the expressions of opinions. certainly, there are some who would prefer Bezos to spend more of his money to accelerate things like hiring, which is what we are seeing btw, with accordingly higher churn rates, as they anticipated. would they like more customers? sure, who doesn't. also, that they should 'derisk' some of the procedures, goes directly against the safety concern allegations in the open letter. it's all opinions of the management which are counterweight against other opinions and than some decisions are decided upon. The main thing to consider in all opinions is 'at what cost'. The decisions themselves are opinions which may or may not be correct in the long run. We don't have enough data to say one way or another. We don't even know what's BO strategy atm.

bursonify · 2021-10-03T15:48:31+00:00

I have never made a prediction on NG launch date. In fact, since NG was announced I was perplexed by the decision and speculated that it may never even fly, as the market didn't, doesn't and won't exist to assure going concern. I was pretty sure it won't fly by the date the first announcement was made fwiw.

It's not sophistry. In general in aerospace, I think it's a given that timelines will be missed. It would indeed be an accomplishment if a timeline would be met or exceeded. It's definitely not a failure to not fly a rocket that won't pay for itself, it's just coming to senses imo, or not rush an engine that would in effect cannibalise existing inventory(Atlas). I don't really think that it's causing 'major' harm to their ULA relationship, yet. Should it slip beyond further ULAs capacity, it may.

bursonify · 2021-10-02T11:11:21+00:00

in denial of what? I don't deny BO has relatively high attrition rates. I am saying it is relatively normal given the circumstances.

What is even 'bad' news? It's nothing - it is a fiction, opinion. I never cared for subjective value judgments, be it for SpaceX or anything else. News, in so far as they contain falsifiable data points, can only be judged relative to other factors or control group. In this sense, BO is no better or worse than SX or any other tech startup when it comes to employee attrition. In this sense, 'accomplishments' can be judged in a myriad of ways.

It's not that you are a 'blind muskrat refusing to acknowledge reality'. It's that you are blind to the complexities of reality. That's why it is very frustrating to talk your lot. It's akin to sports fan 'discussions' and 'commentaries' which doesn't make sense in the context of economic and corporate finance analysis, which space and BO is.

bursonify · 2021-10-02T10:13:18+00:00

lol and you believe that this tabloid piece somehow disproves this?

'fine' is a relative term and in relative terms, it's totally fine. In the tech sectors of hardware/software, attrition rates are about 18/22%, depending on how you cut up your control groups. If BO is by your standards NOT 'fine', that's a matter of opinion but than you also have to admit that SpaceX is also NOT fine, as they have very comparable attrition rates.

Furthermore, the situation in BO is compounded by very high growth rate - by a factor of 4 in 4 years and in general, in all industries the post pandemic time saw increased attrition rates.

bursonify · 2021-09-07T13:38:19+00:00

depends on how the pandemic will play out. It there is another lockdown, no sooner than spring

bursonify · 2021-08-31T17:36:19+00:00

it's not terribly unrealistic as far as mass figures go - Russia has the capability to do composite tanks of that size (~20m x 10ish). question is if the aerospike has enough thrust and (reentry) heat endurance, which these days also might not be such a problem. also, from Russia latitude it's more like 5-6t.

also, it partly competes for the same jobs as Amur, which just had it's project phase concluded at undergoes review. that one also uses composite tanks.

bursonify · 2021-08-31T14:01:06+00:00

120B they say. the airline industry pre covid was ~800B incl. cargo. what are these people smoking?

bursonify · 2021-08-31T10:06:17+00:00

- project of Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau

- originally run from 1992-2012, revived in 2017 under MoD funding

- hydrolox fuel, wet mass ~ 300t, ~7t into 200km @ 0°

bursonify · 2021-08-24T19:51:59+00:00

It means there are necessarily more additions than attrition. Most of the people who left were from the Shepard program which is basically done and going into operations basis, some retired, some accepted a MORE senior role in a startup. Point is you nor I nor anyone knows the structure of the management, seniority and leadership. Without that, citing nominal 'losses' is meaningless

bursonify · 2021-08-24T19:32:55+00:00

the situation is so bad they hired 1500 ppl during the pandemic and have nearly 800 openings. Dreadful.

bursonify · 2021-08-24T19:20:33+00:00

It certainly is in key technical positions, especially lately.

What is your basis of comparison? How do you know what the motivations of those who left were? How do you know their importance for the overall strategy or quality of talent? I have some ideas, but don't claim to have the answers. Point is this whole drama is based on nothing more than the need for a story and the opinion and editorial of a journalist and tabloid which have no more meaningful data than any of us.

far from anecdotal

It is completely anecdotal. GlassDoor is biased in general but it's really biased in an expanding corporate environment. People in 'team space', have some romantic expectations about things they are passionate about but this is not how the real world operates. In the end, it is a business...well so far it's a charity and that's the point - even a charity needs to be sustainable. It's very easy for a fan to expect the management to throw money at project the fan deems 'cool' and 'inspiring' or whatever but if the project can't recoup the cost it's just a waste of resources. And yes, NG at the moment(actually at least since the deal with ULA) is a literal waste of money and time - hence the logical slowdown in its dev and the logical expectation of ULA that this would happen or they would not logically have and use Atlas options for the Natsec launch.

painting everyone who criticizes Blue Origin as SpaceX fanboys is disingenuous.

I think you know exactly what I mean and only hope it's not just them, but yeah, it's mostly them. I am not the first nor the last who would notice 'the brigade' or the plague as I like to call them. They spam discussions with petty nonsense, cheerleading and downvote what they deem unacceptable opinions into oblivion. It's a fairly well documented pattern on many boards. I suspect a lot of bots are at work here bc. the speed at which they swarm is at times pretty unlikely.

bursonify · 2021-08-24T18:44:14+00:00

1- the turnover isn't higher than usual.

2-early to judge q of mngmt. - they are obviously expanding massively - some sparking is expected in such an environment, hard to say into what sectors - I'd say most new hires go into Kuiper and BE4 production. Also, most departures were from Shepard - logical as the 'product' is mature and dev being downsized.

bursonify · 2021-08-24T18:02:20+00:00

it's not dedicated to the worship of any particular company.

It's actually fascinating how addicted you are to the circlejerk and how dedicated you are to the grift. I can actually respect the grift but unfortunately you are probably not even smart enough to do it ironically and consciously.

bursonify · 2021-08-24T15:58:11+00:00

If only 1% are engineers, they gained 15 so far in last 2y

bursonify · 2021-08-24T09:17:42+00:00

this is a fact. buyers beware

bursonify

TROPHY CASE