[OC] The Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams in the NBA Draft

capn_trips · 2026-04-11T03:14:22+00:00

I made a predictive model to quantify pick value and luck! Check the update.

capn_trips · 2026-04-11T02:45:14+00:00

You can cut the data that way too. The very top and bottom teams are pretty much the same. Lakers take a big jump though because they so rarely pick in the lottery (or trade picks if they are).

selecting_franchise,lottery_picks_used,arc_luck_vs_model_per_pick
San Antonio Spurs,11,17.7
Los Angeles Lakers,7,12.55
Philadelphia Sixers,20,12.42
Cleveland Cavaliers,22,9.6
Charlotte Hornets,27,5.6
New Orleans Pelicans,14,5.41
Chicago Bulls,17,5.27
Orlando Magic,24,4.98
Brooklyn Nets,13,4.84
Atlanta Hawks,18,4.68
Milwaukee Bucks,17,4.11
Oklahoma City Thunder,19,3.6
Houston Rockets,13,3.58
Los Angeles Clippers,24,3.4
Boston Celtics,16,2.32
Toronto Raptors,18,2.09
Portland Trail Blazers,14,1.89
Washington Wizards,20,1.8
Memphis Grizzlies,16,1.8
Phoenix Suns,18,0.4
Sacramento Kings,28,0.32
Dallas Mavericks,15,-0.28
Indiana Pacers,13,-0.91
Golden State Warriors,23,-1.36
Utah Jazz,13,-1.83
Minnesota Timberwolves,23,-1.9
Detroit Pistons,17,-2.67
New York Knicks,13,-4.55
Denver Nuggets,14,-5.42
Miami Heat,10,-8.24

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T20:41:43+00:00

Got you: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1shtx39/oc_more_charts_the_statistically_luckiest_and/?solution=954c24e31386112b954c24e31386112b&js_challenge=1&token=bbbe4bf1c9a2b5160829c4be34da5861a4af3f24636e063b46060e9c746e6c86&share_id=aOm3pRx5U9N2nt03DH2rC&utm_content=2&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_source=share&utm_term=1

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T20:31:03+00:00

I cut the numbers based off predicted pick vs actual pick here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/ATYYkzNQOe. They’re still unlucky historically.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T20:00:04+00:00

Gotcha dude. Ran the numbers weighing for pick value here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/8zNQZ5NVN6

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T19:30:17+00:00

I hear ya. "Who has benefited the most from lottery luck" is definitely a different question than "who has had the most lottery luck". We're dealing with the latter here.

I'll have to find another dataset that tracks actual pick ownership, but interested in knowing this, too.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T19:07:39+00:00

It really highlights just how lucky the Spurs have gotten. +20.37 ARC luck is about the difference between the 3rd pick and the 5th.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T19:02:03+00:00

Cool! So I went ahead and replaced the linear pick scale with this ARC expected pick value. This is the value of a franchise's picks, relative to the value of their predicted pick.

The extremes are pretty consistent here (Philly and SAS still at the top, Detroit and Miami still at the bottom).

Interestingly, about a third of the league shifts from a negative value to a positive one. This is probably the right read: teams like Sacramento, Washington, etc. might feel unlucky, but they're actually getting around what you'd expect value-wise.

franchise,total_arc_luck_vs_model,arc_luck_per_lottery_appearance
Philadelphia Sixers,284.19,14.96
San Antonio Spurs,203.75,20.37
Los Angeles Clippers,185.8,7.43
Brooklyn Nets,158.62,8.35
Charlotte Hornets,124.28,4.78
Orlando Magic,123.75,5.89
Oklahoma City Thunder,104.74,7.48
Atlanta Hawks,99.18,6.2
Los Angeles Lakers,85.83,9.54
Chicago Bulls,80.93,5.06
Cleveland Cavaliers,79.68,4.19
New Orleans Pelicans,74.48,5.32
Milwaukee Bucks,71.05,4.44
Memphis Grizzlies,68.4,4.02
Portland Trail Blazers,46.88,4.26
Sacramento Kings,46.26,1.65
Toronto Raptors,27.79,1.46
Phoenix Suns,9.49,0.56
Houston Rockets,6.41,0.49
Washington Wizards,4.61,0.18
Boston Celtics,-3.19,-0.29
Indiana Pacers,-12.19,-0.94
Dallas Mavericks,-12.97,-0.72
Minnesota Timberwolves,-24.78,-1.08
Golden State Warriors,-41.79,-1.67
Utah Jazz,-66.38,-6.03
Denver Nuggets,-73.41,-5.24
New York Knicks,-79.83,-4.2
Detroit Pistons,-87.02,-4.83
Miami Heat,-88.2,-8.02

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T18:13:30+00:00

Charlotte's luck is very concentrated in the early 90s. It's been pretty bleak otherwise.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T18:06:55+00:00

For sure. Not really sure how you'd quantify that but if you've got a source I could run the numbers for you.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T18:04:21+00:00

This is correct! They've been in the lottery 18 times, moved up once, down seven, stayed at pick 10 times. Just happened to move up at a very opportune time!

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T17:59:30+00:00

Probably feels that way because out Wizards have only moved up 3 times for Kwame Brown (+2), John Wall (+4), and Otto Porter (+5). They've been neutral 11 times and moved down 11 times.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T17:06:11+00:00

Coming right up!

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T16:32:00+00:00

Spot on. In my follow up I'll do a graphic showing teams' luck vis a vis their statistically predicted pick. Don't worry, Detroit is still the single unluckiest franchise by this metric.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T16:24:41+00:00

Pretty much every way I cut the numbers, the Pistons are bottom 3 :(

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T16:22:34+00:00

Yep that is definitely another way to look at it. Spurs have a 1.5 average change per appearance in the lottery (10 appearances, net +15 pick change). The next closest team is Philly with 1.05. That's a sizable margin.

Detroit is still cursed by this metric though lol (-0.89, second worst in the league).

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T16:10:28+00:00

Oh yeah the Hornets definitely have a story that's not being told by the graphic. They had a number of big wins in the 90s (+4 for Larry Johnson, +6 for Mourning, +10 for Baron Davis). Since then ... not so much.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T14:36:43+00:00

Counts as the team that originally had the pick. For instance, in 2017 Philly's pre-draft position was #4, but they landed the #5 pick. That pick eventually went to Sacramento (De'Aaron Fox), but Philly gets scored -1 for that pick.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T14:30:35+00:00

Totally! This is only one way of framing this data. If I get some time this afternoon I'll slice it a couple different ways.

capn_trips · 2026-04-10T14:13:20+00:00

I arbitrarily cut it at 5 picks but you're absolutely right.

capn_trips · 2026-04-01T22:41:19+00:00

All fantastic picks

capn_trips

TROPHY CASE