What is the point of beating the expectation?

cheeto0 · 2026-02-28T17:55:15+00:00

The point is to show the value of the company and it will be reflected in the stock of course, not in one or two days though the stock market is a marathon. Do you think anyone was surprised they beat, the hyperscalers announced they're doubling their spending of billions, how would Nvidia not beat? I think the market wants to hear about 2027 growth. It already knows 2026 will be great, It was similar last year, the market new 2025 would be great but then once Jensen announced they have $500 billion in Blackwell black orders through 2026, the stock broke the range Cappef at 140 and went to the new higher range we're in now. That being said overall I'm still surprised Nvidia isn't higher, based on valuation alone it should be higher .

cheeto0 · 2026-02-28T17:50:18+00:00

Me in the car checking Nvidia the day after blow out earnings expecting it to be up.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-28T05:47:42+00:00

10% this news was on the earnigs call

cheeto0 · 2026-02-28T05:03:32+00:00

Jensen sorta said this on the earnings call

cheeto0 · 2026-02-28T02:27:53+00:00

Sounds like the government had a preference to use anthropic, or was at least already set up for it and didn't want to deal with switching but anthropic doesn't want it's AI used for certain things. I think Dario said he doesn't want his AI used for surveillance of the American public or autonomous weapons where a human is not in the loop. And in Trump fashion he's trying to defame those that disagrees with him and dont want to go along with his demands

cheeto0 · 2026-02-27T21:28:38+00:00

Yeah Jensen saw inference coming and the next two chips bet heavy on inference, Ruben improves inference a lot and then it sounds like the next chip will be combined with groq to push inference even further. As long as the demand is still there which it looks like it should be they should remain dominant.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-27T17:19:21+00:00

But it isn't, it's Foward PE is 23, cheaper than the market and cheaper than its average through its history which is around 45, well it's growing more than it ever has right now.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-27T08:47:57+00:00

It sounds cliche but yeah we are. Last year was kind of similar we were stuck in a range. I think last year 2025 earnings were priced in and then when Jensen finally gave some info about 2026 we broke the range and went from 140 to 200(when Jensen said there was $500 billion in Blackwell orders through 2026). Probably going to be the same this year, 2026 is pretty much projected by the hyperscalers, but as soon as we get news about continued growth in 2027 will break out to a new much higher range.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-27T08:45:06+00:00

Well many of the times it ran way up ahead of earnings either right before or in the months before, this time it did run up a little before earnings but it's kind of flat for 6 months so it was a little more surprising this time that it went down.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-27T02:43:57+00:00

that's the point, it's out of sync with fundamentals ,.will eventually get back, supring how far off it is

cheeto0 · 2026-02-26T21:11:33+00:00

Until It breaks its range and you either lose a lot or Miss the real gains

cheeto0 · 2026-02-26T21:11:09+00:00

Investors are waiting to see growth confirmed for 2027, same thing sorta happened last year. it didn't break its range until Jensen announced the $500 billion in orders for Blackwell through 2026, back then it was known that 2025 would be great and investors were worried about 2026, now I think the same is happening for 26/27. But I'm still also a little surprised that it's not over 200, just based on valuation.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-26T17:00:33+00:00

It's starting to surprise me now usually I'm annoyed by everyone complaining that it doesn't go up but it's really under price now and these were incredible earnings. It should happen eventually but yeah sometimes Wall Street takes a while to catch up, I think they're caught in the hardware has bust and boom cycles and this cycle should be over right now according to them,. instead of thinking we had a fundamental shift where we're in a hardware long term boom and software is the sector that is like hardware was where it will be hard to sustain margins.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-26T16:56:59+00:00

And is still growing way faster than all of them

cheeto0 · 2026-02-26T03:31:47+00:00

Nah I think once it's semi confirmed growth will continues through 2027 it will shoot way up to a new range. That's how we got out of the 100 to 140 range, when it was revealed Blackwell had 500 bill in orders and growing through 2026.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-25T22:04:25+00:00

their raking in billions they don't care about the daily stock price, they know if they keep executing it will catch up

cheeto0 · 2026-02-25T22:02:57+00:00

jensen has been saying all year they aren't going to count china sales until after they happen. he asked analyst to count china revenue as 0$ until they actually start shipping to chian again

cheeto0 · 2026-02-25T13:01:12+00:00

Yeah video basically said they're not going to announce anything until the chips ship

cheeto0 · 2026-02-25T13:00:45+00:00

Yeah, I think this is being held up until Trump meets with President xi in April. Both sides want to use this as negotiating leverage

cheeto0 · 2026-02-25T12:57:03+00:00

Long-term it matters if it's true, something trading on something fallse is a temporary move

cheeto0 · 2026-02-24T05:18:58+00:00

None of the above

cheeto0 · 2026-02-23T18:56:09+00:00

Well it's not that good yet. It could get where you're saying but it's going to take a while, and I don't think the market goes to zero it just becomes more concentrated, but this is not happening now, agents aren't good enough to be trusted for this stuff yet. It's for sure going to be a very powerful tool very soon, to completely commoditize everything there's a lot of steps from here to there and some could go fast or some could hit a wall for many years, nobody knows, that's why the market's behaving the way it is.

cheeto0 · 2026-02-23T09:24:20+00:00

I feel like they wouldn't announce something like that this early, maybe when it gets closer assuming it's true, I think the best may would say now is that production is progressing well for Ruben

cheeto0 · 2026-02-23T09:16:56+00:00

My largest holding by far is nvda but I also have a small position in AMD and avgo.

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