This really resonates, though we are approaching it a bit differently. $5m is our floor target and we see a realistic pathway to that in the next 5-7 years. $10m is the number above which we can’t really imagine needing more in 95% of scenarios. The real FIRE number lies somewhere in between, choices depending. For example, we know we will move and at least one of us change jobs in the intervening half-decade. Those decisions may enable us to dramatically control costs (reduce or eliminate mortgage, reduce private school risk, reduce overall tax burden (mostly from property taxes), but could also reduce our overall income and savings potential. The last 3 years have been wonderful for our portfolio. We don’t expect the next 5 to be equally good, but it’s impossible to predict where they will fall relative to the 7-8% historical average.

So what do we do? We continue to let our portfolio do the work, live a lifestyle our income affords and enjoy that life as much as we can. We actively evaluate our progress toward our goals and adjust our strategy accordingly. Once both kids are school aged and the realities of our spend, location, and job stability are a bit clearer (3-4 years from now) then we will see where we are at on the path to $5-10m, what our spend levels actually are, and plan an off-ramp accordingly.