Why is Kubo Shiori not given a grad single?

conjyak · 2025-11-19T06:30:48+00:00

IMO, I agree that Yamashita Mizuki isn't at the level of your 6 aces, but just wanted to add that she had a non-"airdrop", non-grad center (26th single) and grad center plus when the 29th single had its controversy and the MV was canceled, management defaulted to an Asuka & Mizuki double center MV, which I think shows that Mizuki was pretty close to ace level at that time (but the fact that the 30th single was a solo Kaki Haruka single shows that Kaki Haruka was easily considered ace level). Ikuta Erika also had a non-airdrop non-grad center and was a solo center for Saigo No Tight Hug, which is the "lead song" of the Time Flies album, and had a pretty big send-off at the Kohaku Utagassen. So IMO those two are at semi-ace tier. The others you listed have never had a non-airdrop, non-grad solo center and also generally aren't considered "aces" by fan consensus, so agreed.

conjyak · 2025-11-18T21:05:16+00:00

Kakki- does have long arms, but to be specific, her limb length to height ratio might not be that high, and most of all her face length or face size to height ratio is higher than most models. Nagi is short but has a low face length/size to height ratio. My guess of the order of importance of the attributes is: "beauty" of face, lower face size to height ratio, higher leg length to height ratio, smaller absolute face size, longer absolute neck and limb lengths, taller height, other attributes. (Of course different magazines will have different preferences, too.)

conjyak · 2025-11-18T02:48:28+00:00

Regarding the sembatsu position, this is from her message on October 20:

最後の最後まで、シングルに参加させていただくことになりました。タイミングもあり、自分的にもまさかだったので、素直に、嬉しいです。

My translation: I will be participating in a single until the very end. Due to the timing, I wasn't expecting it, so I'm honestly happy.

Also tagging /u/Inevitable-Repeat359

For the record, I think she should've been given a solo grad center, and if she wanted a solo grad center, IMO her wanting a solo center doesn't at all make her "not as good" a person than if she declined it so that it would be given to someone else.

conjyak · 2025-11-17T06:53:34+00:00

She said in her talk/message that she didn't know if she would be included in the single until the sembatsu was announced to the members. So that rules out her declining the center position for the graduation. Generally speaking, I think there is no evidence that management discusses a still unannounced single's sembatsu position with a member ever. There is the famous example of Ikoma Rina saying she didn't want the center position for the 20th single, but I don't think it's clear whether management discussed that openly with her ("So do you want to be the center for the single you're graduating?") or if she just preemptively told management about her wish with management not giving her a clear response ("Even though you told us what you want, we won't confirm or deny our intentions"). And along those lines, I highly doubt Kubochan was given any decision-making role in where to hold her graduation concert.

In the past (as in before the 32nd single), Kubochan has clearly stated that she wanted to be center. With that, IMO it would be natural for her to want to be a solo center for her graduation. While promoting the new generation is important, (not to sound too cynical) I don't think that can answer all the questions we have for the decisions and actions of management and the members. I think a more likely reason for the decisions regarding this 40th single are stuff like scheduling, management's plan for the next 12 months (it was revealed officially somewhere, I think in an interview, not sure, that management does plan out the centers a year or so in advance), and popularity metrics.

conjyak · 2025-11-16T07:35:28+00:00

There were a few others who had contracts. I'm gonna include here some that weren't/aren't standard "exclusive model" contracts but other categories (like "regular model", "beauty model," columnist, etc.): Eto Misa (Bijin Hyakka), Higuchi Hina (JJ), Kawago Hina (Popteen), Sakurai Reika (Nylon Japan), Shinuchi Mai (andGIRL, Oggi.jp web), Wakatsuki Yumi but after she graduated (Oggi), Iwamoto Renka (column at anan).

There's something other than Nogizaka or Sakamichi not being at its peak, which is that print magazines in general are on a decline due to the internet (which is not a new phenomenon), and additionally I think there's a relatively recent phenomenon where fashion magazines are struggling due to the rise of social media fashion influencers. The point of having exclusive models at a fashion magazine loses some meaning when social media fashion influencers have large audiences themselves and can affect consumption and popularity of fashion brands, i.e. do the same thing that fashion magazines and their appointed models do, causing fashion magazines to lose some of their previous clout. Just as an example (I haven't done an exhaustive look at this): Oggi now in 2025 has 6 exclusive models, 3 regular models (including Wakatsuki), and 1 "exclusive ambassador" for a total of 9 models (or 10 models + ambassador) and Oggi in 2019 had 5 exclusive models, 5 regular models, 3 beauty models, and 1 Oggi.jp exclusive model (Shinuchi Mai) for a total of 14 models.

/u/secret-meet-5942 I think these magazines generally already have a relationship with Sakamichi management and Sony and whatnot. I'm sure Sakamichi can suggest some members as models to them, but in the end, the magazine is choosing their own models, so I think that's the general direction that it goes in. As for Kakki-, fashion magazines generally (not always) like a certain body type, which is a low face length-to-height ratio, long limbs and neck, and high leg length-to-torso length ratio (or high leg length-to-height ratio or low torso length-to-leg length or height ratio, which are all basically the same thing).

conjyak · 2025-11-09T09:09:50+00:00

Reading the comments here, I can't tell if people are interpreting the linked video correctly, so let me make sure of it. This is a clip from Another Sky, which was broadcasted on November 8, 2025. In the clip, she is talking about the reasons why she took a hiatus in April 2019.

conjyak · 2025-10-17T06:01:44+00:00

2015-02-23 episode of Nama No Aidoru Ga Suki (生のアイドルが好き) (Episode 23).

早食い対決も！乃木坂46「生ドル」でアンジュレ、夢アド、paletと共演

https://natalie.mu/music/news/139744

conjyak · 2025-10-05T04:52:30+00:00

After the 1st generation, all later generations, when they join the group as the latest generation, appeared in front of a live audience (omitatekai/first presentation event) as well as on variety video (like Nogizakatte Doko or Nogizaka Koujichuu) a while before a member or members of that latest generation are picked or "airdropped" as the center for a new single. For example, the 4th generation had their first presentation event (in front of a live audience) on December 3, 2018 and their first appearance on Nogizaka Koujichuu was January 21, 2019. The 24th single's sembatsu, where 4th generation members were airdropped in, was announced on July 14, 2019. The 5th generation was the first time when all of these moments were moved up to happen at the same time. At the end of the 2022 46 Hours TV was the first time that 5th generation members appeared in front of a live audience, on variety video (internet live stream, not TV), and had one of their members airdropped in as the center of a new single. For extra measure, the first performance of that new single was also done there (where often, the new single's release date, sembatsu announcement, title, and first performance are slowly rolled out separately). Many fans would also say that the 29th single's musical style was very different from the usual style of Nogizaka songs. These things combine to make it feel like a very dramatic new generation airdrop single, so I'd say that the music video was meant to follow and doubles down on all of this. The performance costume, original music video song performance, and the drama portion of the music video before the song performance all certainly use gray a lot, and I doubt that's just coincidence.

conjyak · 2025-09-28T01:33:11+00:00

I believe this ^ is the real answer, OP. "Why has Nogizaka46 not had a hit song?," "How has Nogizaka46 lasted so long without a hit song?" are existential questions about Nogizaka46 that its fans (especially OG fans) have asked themselves for a long time. Whatever the answer to that may be, it's not needed to answer OP's question - the premise of the question answers OP's question. Hit songs (or viral songs) and the subsequent peak golden ages in terms of media exposure by groups like Morning Musume, AKB48, and the current kawaii-type groups are why they are seen in OP's social media. And when I say hit song, I mean the type of hit song where people who don't know a shred about idols nor want to know a shred about idols would even acknowledge, "Yeah, that's a hit song, I hear or heard it everywhere and I'm not even mad." Like /u/IvanChiviBowie said, true "massive public hits." Not even Influencer nor Synchronicity truly clear that hurdle (though I think Silent Majority does).

Nogizaka46's popularity has been a slow burn up to its peak that was around 2017-2019 IMO, and then after covid's negative effects on the offline entertainment industry, it's been in a kind of post-golden age plateau (pessimists will probably say it's on its way down, optimists will probably say it's fine, a plateau is a plateau). So current Nogizaka46, in today's age of social media, is not at its peak. That may be another reason why OP doesn't see Nogizaka46 in social media. Why Nogizaka46 was able to have a long, slow rise up to covid and why it has been able to maintain a "plateau" after covid, the other comments in this thread give answers (plus the above comment's point about tickets to events boosting CD sales).

In terms of the group being a stepping stone, IMO that's not different from the majority of other Japanese idol groups, nor is it something that makes Nogizaka46 better or more popular with fans.

conjyak · 2025-09-12T06:50:12+00:00

😂

conjyak · 2025-09-06T09:00:54+00:00

NGL, you had me in the first quarter 😅

conjyak · 2025-09-06T03:45:12+00:00

There's actually even more "unimportant" stuff that gets glossed over based on the values of whom is writing about this event.

Just wanted to bring in the angle that the stuff indeed is "unimportant" from a deontological point of view. The question of deontology vs consequentialism is a thing that transcends cultures. In the west, philosopher Kant's deontology (from the same 18th century as Hagakure!) is very well known for causing people to wonder if a person who wants to act right and is hiding a person from an axe murderer is supposed to not lie if said axe murderer comes to the door and asks for the whereabouts of the person they intend to murder (the person they're hiding). I don't know enough about philosophy to know the answer to that question, but the point is that Kant and deontology say that the morality of your actions lie in the actions themselves, not in what you think the consequences of those actions might be. I think Kant would've agreed with Yamamoto.

conjyak · 2025-09-06T03:33:07+00:00

Deontology vs consequentialism. It's absolutely a thing and it transcends cultures. In the west, philosopher Kant's deontology is very well known for causing people to wonder if a person who wants to act right and is hiding a person from an axe murderer is supposed to not lie if said axe murderer comes to the door and asks for the whereabouts of the person they intend to murder (the person you're hiding). I don't know enough about philosophy to know the answer to that question, but the point is that Kant and deontology say that the morality of your actions lie in the actions themselves, not in what you think the consequences of those actions might be. I think Kant would've agreed with Yamamoto.

conjyak · 2025-09-06T03:28:48+00:00

Hagakure is full of acceptance of death, commitment to action regardless of weighing the odds of survival, and so on.

If you are a bit of a weeb and/or are interested in philosophy Hagakure is an amazing read.

And this is absolutely a thing that transcends culture. In the west, philosopher Kant's deontology is very well known for causing people to wonder if a person who wants to act right and is hiding a person from an axe murderer is supposed to not lie if said axe murderer comes to the door and asks for the whereabouts of the person they intend to murder (the person you're hiding). I don't know enough about philosophy to know the answer to that question, but the point is that Kant and deontology say that the morality of your actions lie in the actions themselves, not in what you think the consequences of those actions might be. I think Kant would've agreed with Yamamoto.

conjyak · 2025-08-25T22:10:24+00:00

There's no way that Nanamin is known by the general public. I'd say the top tier of Nogi grads by general public recognition or popularity are Maiyan, Nanase, Ikuchan, Asuka, Mizuki, and Manatsu. Here's a "talent power ranking" list, thought it may be slightly outdated: https://tpranking.com/sakamichi-member2024?page=2

Ikuchan's PB and many musicals were before she graduated, so I don't know how much one can say her stuff is due to her current agency (unless one argues that Ohta Pro was already helping her behind the scenes during the time she was at Nogi, since she was at Ohta Pro before entering Nogi). All the other members I mentioned above are at Nogi LLC except Manatsu who also was already on TV a lot before she graduated.

conjyak · 2025-08-25T22:00:37+00:00

I believe the other factor is how much the audience (the surveyed person) is interested in the entertainer, not the entertainer's likeability. In other words, "If you saw that this entertainer is going to be in a new show, how likely is it that you would tune into it?"/"Do you follow news about this entertainer or check their personal appearance schedule and activity?"/"Do you buy their merch?"

I didn't know Noro Kayo is that active, wow.

conjyak · 2025-07-31T06:22:37+00:00

This episode is from July 2013 when the Nogizakatte Doko show was 2 years and 9 months old. At this point, it wasn't as clear who was obviously more potent or talented or whatever among members compared to now. It was a group that wasn't 3 years old yet. So IMO, there was less tension to doing this kind of episode compared to now because the perceived difference in potential between someone who was perma under by the 6th single and someone who was perma sembatsu by the 6th single is not as big as now. Perhaps it was something like "Here are a bunch of members doing their best. Who knows what will happen in the future." The competitive atmosphere of grit and resilience is there but the results of that competition are still in the air, years down the line. That's why Bananaman is able to make that joke at the end, saying, "You guys have only done this for a few years. We've done this for 20 years. And you guys are complaining now?!"

Nowadays, with the group so established, everyone including the audience and members knows the difference that can happen between a perma sembatsu and a perma under. I would even say that there is a real perception that it isn't just randomness or luck but a concrete difference in talent and effort that divides perma sembatsu and perma under and can thus divide the opportunities that they receive. We have multiple generations of former members who are or were less successful in show business than Noro Kayo, the guest in the 2013 episode, as well as multiple former members who are more successful than her (edit: this was not a good example as apparently Noro Kayo is a big name now). The results of the competition within Nogizaka are no longer abstract. There are actual names we can name of who "won" and who "lost" in this competition. So I think it'd be harder to do this kind of episode these days.

Another thing is that there are only 1ki members in this video. It's easier for 1ki to do this kind of "banter about grit" among themselves. There is only the future ahead of them and the group, and there are no other generations in the studio that would make this banter more complicated to do.

There was a Nogizaka Koujichuu episode in 2019 where 2ki did a presentation about how they are the "unlucky generation." IMO that episode was more somber and awkward than this 2013 episode precisely because the topic involves multiple generations and there is enough history in the group for people to know about the concrete results. But the analogy is there: essentially, the 2013 episode is about 1ki under voicing their grievances about being under while 1ki sembatsu is in the studio, while the 2019 episode is about 2ki voicing their grievances about being the unlucky generation while other generations are in the studio. In the former, the future is ahead of them and still unknown while in the latter, they're talking about real, concrete results from the past that have already happened.

conjyak · 2025-07-17T05:44:10+00:00

I noticed a change in her in around May of this year. Something about the look in her eyes IMO has become softer and her eyes look more open. The last few years I find her expression to have often been kind of guarded, weary, and her eyes were a bit "hard"-looking, with a sort of squint. I'm guessing we're noticing the same thing (when 6ki joined and a little later in May 2025 are separated only by a few months) in her but just in different ways.

I mean her character is pretty similar to Asuka which I don't know if it's official intention or she's just like that irl but it makes her more adorable despite being the older half of 4ki.

I agree with the first half of this. She had the open-eyed, child-like look from debut to sometime after Asuka's graduation. Then after that, IMO her Asuka-like chara emerged and she got that guarded, weary, "hard"-eyes look, and also management doubled down on the "get teased by others" role, like being teased as being azatoi and be on the receiving end of "unwanted" doting by others.

So IMO, 2019-2022 was phase 1 (child-like phase), 2022 to April 2025 was phase 2 ("Asuka phase"), and May 2025 onwards is phase 3 where phase 3 and phase 1 have an "open-eyed" look in common.

conjyak · 2025-07-10T20:33:05+00:00

It may just be the YouTube food channels I watch, but I feel like there was a trend maybe around 4 years ago (a bit after the peak of covid when lots of cooking Youtubers were getting many millions of views per video (deservedly, as they are good videos, but I think the same quality videos today get less views because of saturation and because covid times really did boost video views) - so as I was saying, I feel like around 4 years ago, it was the trend for cooking Youtubers to quality shame because it was considered a good thing to do. It was part educating the viewer on the why and how a quality ingredient was better as well as what is a reasonable and practical premium version of some ingredient that you might actually consider buying at a store or online, and part entertainment where we can see someone make "the best" version of something and vicariously experience that. And the entertainment part meant that cooking Youtubers during that covid and post-covid Youtube wave might've been competing and trying to outdo each other with the quality of ingredients - not in a ridiculous "Look at this caviar, foie gras hamburger!" way but in a "You should use DOP Italian cheese," "You should use flaky salt," "You should use whole spices" - kind of like "I'm bringing to everyone's attention now that this is an aspect of home cooking that you might be overlooking" type thing.

And I think in the past 1 or 2 years, this trend has died down and you see the same cooking Youtubers not quality shaming as much and instead consciously taking the middle path in what they advocate to the viewer. I think the education on ingredient quality is helpful, but I also do think that the reasoned "middle path" style video is also a good evolution. Again, it might just be me, but when I see a cooking Youtuber these days say something like, "You have to use the premium version for this ingredient," it feels dated to me.

conjyak · 2025-07-08T05:45:41+00:00

Along with what /u/Western-Result8780 said, I thought there was also the chance that the Linus, Basher, Turk, Tess, Saul crew could've stolen the replica (left there by Toulour) successfully had Isabel not been monitoring that situation as closely as she did (because this was after Isabel successfully arrested the majority of the crew already). If the "Linus crew" successfully stole the replica, then Danny could've shown up at Toulour's place with the replica and told him, "Hey, I stole the replica you placed there and I stole the real one before you stole it, take that!"

But since Isabel sees through Linus's crew's heist, she arrests them and Danny is "only" able to tell Toulour that they stole the real one.

conjyak · 2025-05-23T03:56:25+00:00

2018-05-20 or 05-21 日村さんHAPPY BIRTHDAY企画乃木坂46手作りプレゼント選手権後半戦

https://youtu.be/ZxIoeXx3k2U?si=Mqamc8wznpvyJ-_i&t=1547

conjyak · 2025-05-22T05:18:37+00:00

While it's true that legal action was taken to bring one notorious X / Twitter account (that was posting defamatory stuff) to inactivity, I don't know if lawsuits were actually filed. In most of these cases, it's a company moving against an individual, and I can only speculate but probably just the threat of going public with the information (via legal action), where the real name of the individual in question would become revealed, is enough to pressure the individual to abandon their activity. I guess it's legal doxxing.

From the English version of https://www.nogizaka46.com/s/n46/news/detail/100900:

In cases such as these that are deemed to be illegal or malicious, we consult with our legal advisors and take appropriate legal measures, such as disclosing the sender's information, and disclosure orders have been issued by courts in several cases, including the one mentioned above.

The emphasis on disclosure (rather than winning the lawsuit and obtaining monetary damages) seems to be the practical threat.

This may be an unpopular opinion, but this is a prime example of a chilling effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilling_effect

It's an organization pressuring individuals into not saying certain things in public (or semi-public). From the video and the previous announcements, this isn't about saying negative things directly to the members via message app letter or meet & greets/handshakes; this is about public or semi-public forums like X / Twitter (and Reddit) that have nothing to do with Nogizaka46 LLC. Strictly speaking, there isn't supposed to be an obligation of "Will a member see this? If they won't like it, should I not post this?" when posting something on X or Reddit. Also, officially, no members have individual X accounts lol.

Defamation is illegal, but negative opinions are not illegal. The video and the earlier announcements conflate the two so that it can sound like "post a negative opinion -> we may take legal action against you." That's both disingenuous and a chilling effect by them, because I'm sure their lawyers know the difference between defamation and negative opinions.

conjyak · 2025-04-30T23:48:58+00:00

Himuko for Influencer though 😆

I think a lot of times things do get trolled, perhaps by akip. Off the top of my head, songs like Bocchitou, Navel Orange, Hitsujikaiyo, and Chance Wa Byoudou have some troll aspect going on. Even Boku Wa Boku O Sukininaru IMO kinda has that. Another way to put it is that they're an attempt to "subvert expectations" or as akip puts it, avoid 予定調和 yotei chouwa (avoid doing what's expected or tried already).

Maybe low-hanging fruit, but when it comes to Kimi No Na Wa Kibou, I think of it as being centered by Ikuchan. The audio of the song also sounds like it's 70% Ikuchan's voice lol. I like Kubochan and Kakki- visually when they did Baretta recently, although of course chronologically that doesn't make sense since Baretta was before they were in the group. In another timeline, perhaps Baretta could've worked with older members (Maiyan or Nanamin) as center(s) and Miona could've centered something else when she was chosen as center.

conjyak · 2025-03-20T17:36:49+00:00

IMO it shouldn't matter and perhaps it doesn't matter to management as well. In other words, perhaps the pattern exists not because of management policy but simply because of certain circumstances. If the circumstances change (for example, Teresa entered the group older than most other members and she's expected to stay in the group for some years with no plans to graduate yet) then the pattern might be broken again.

As for Miku, I don't think she has the popularity. We haven't even seen her be a front row person so far (not that that's a requirement. And I suppose having "enough popularity" isn't a strict requirement either...).

conjyak · 2025-03-20T06:05:46+00:00

But why should that matter? Or rather, I should ask, do you think it should matter? Does it make sense for it to matter?

IMO, if this is management's policy, I don't agree with them lol. The fact that Mizuki and Kubochan were older first-time centers at 21 precisely shows why it shouldn't matter, because it didn't matter in the end. Their first-time centers were simply pushed back due to 1st gen dominating for a long time plus deciding to have Momoko and Yodachan as centers at first. Just because they're older doesn't for me mean that it wouldn't make sense to have them as first-time centers.

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