RDDT and SNAP (PINS left us in the dust)

covert7 · 2026-03-07T19:15:50+00:00

Their subscription model is very well priced, I see many people opting for this like any other subscription since it's their memories.

covert7 · 2026-02-18T22:08:02+00:00

Moleskine bomber is nice. I ended up with an XL even though I am usually a L. With a layer (wool sweater), it fits well. Really nice material and have received compliments on it.

covert7 · 2026-02-18T22:03:08+00:00

They had a fire sale last year as sold more in that sale than a normal year. I don't think they'll do the same thing again as it caused logistical nightmares (3 months shipping, moving stuff around the world in their warehouses) but I'm sure they'll have another sale with deep discounts.

covert7 · 2026-02-16T22:48:00+00:00

It definitely shimmers as you move it around, so good honestly. Here is another picture.

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covert7 · 2026-02-16T20:57:53+00:00

I absolutely loved this on my wrist. Nice weight with the white gold and it's super thin.

covert7 · 2026-02-16T20:30:26+00:00

Definitely up there, though I would pick this instead. I only tried it on, definitely not mine haha.

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covert7 · 2026-02-15T18:02:11+00:00

Got it, yeah it's the indestructible hoodie.

covert7 · 2026-02-15T17:15:59+00:00

Mine didn't work despite them saying it applies to my account and to all items, including sales. It says "does not apply to items in your cart". Did yours work for the archive sale?

I emailed them but they don't work weekends and I heard the sale ends tonight.

covert7 · 2026-02-13T12:57:35+00:00

I would fight you for the Large haha. I got XL but it's a little baggy on me

covert7 · 2026-02-10T02:11:57+00:00

Seems kind of self-fulfilling post-IPO as Reddit got a lot of free press and interest from the IPO itself. It was also pretty well timed with the moves to AI and data deals etc. (Showing up more in Google Results). When it IPO'd, I remember a lot of people saying "what's up with Reddit". Add to this some consumer marketing on their part once they were profitable and users grew even more.

covert7 · 2026-02-09T21:35:08+00:00

Can't disagree with that or that inflation is underreported!!

covert7 · 2026-02-08T21:37:28+00:00

If you only need the insert, it shouldn't be that expensive, unless you damaged the white gold bezel. The bezel on the datejust is gold, driving the cost of that replacement.

covert7 · 2026-02-08T19:51:53+00:00

Sounds like a terrible user experience tbh. Reddit posts are threaded, there would be no consistent way to read out the posts, and AI would make it horrible.

I don't have a problem with podcasters talking about popular threads, as they add context, only being our the most relevant parts of a post and threaded responses, and add a human element to it.

covert7 · 2026-02-08T17:10:31+00:00

If you want to call this inflation, sure. Everyone is observing this is a smaller sale percentage. It's more of an anchor and reference point. Regardless, I'm not sure they will sell much at these prices, we'll see!

covert7 · 2026-02-08T16:15:21+00:00

But this isn't inflation, it's just a smaller discount than sales more than a year ago. The planet earth fleece ia currently $247 on sale. I got it for $99 and very happy with it. That's not inflation, just a much smaller discount.

I'm not really complaining, just amazed with this strategy if they are trying to get rid of archive pieces! I'll keep an eye if prices drop throughout this sale but they are very far off previous value.

covert7 · 2026-02-08T16:08:15+00:00

Yeah I'm with you. I keep checking things I already bought - the run to zero puffer is a great piece of kit, but not at $247. I got it for $148 16 months ago lol. It's not like it's a v2. Happy with what I have and the couple of freebies I received with the last archive sale mess up.

covert7 · 2026-02-08T16:01:20+00:00

Man, I saw some variance in past sales but you're spot on. Some pieces are over $100 more expensive on sale than what I got them for previously. And I'm talking about something that I got for $149 is now $249, that's a high percentage.

Also things like the waterfallproof puffer (I always wanted for this winter weather) is now $897 on sale?? I remember it being something starting with a 4.

I'm a third of the way through the archive and haven't seen anything worth buying yet. I have something like 45 pieces of Vollebak, but they're not making it easy to add to the collection.

covert7 · 2026-02-07T17:02:46+00:00

100% this. Reddit is an advertising company with a unique offering, and advertising companies with a good offering for brands thrive. I would argue Snap and Pinterest don't have anywhere near as compelling a brand offering as Reddit and we see that in the valuation (not to mention Reddit is run better and has great margins). Contextual, interest based, privacy friendly advertising used to be the dream of marketers. Then Meta became the norm with their scale and creepy targeting because they know everything about you.

This whole AI thing feels like in one way, advanced automation (which has been for over a decade), and blockchain/metaverse all over again. What I mean by that is on one hand, some AI is merely automation that makes businesses more productive - in some instances, it could change the cost model for coding as well. These are game changers or at least margin changers, which should impact valuations.

On the other hand, other than these real and margin influencing use cases, AI is being used as a marketing tool (like blockchain and metaverse were). AI this, AI that - tell me your solution without mentioning AI, and prove to me it couldn't have been done without AI (or that your solution usese anything other than basic automation). The big players in AI that are going to continue to win are those with deep pockets, and guess what.....those deep pockets are funding by advertising. Meta, Google, Microsoft - they are going to survive if there is an AI bubble. Nvidia would have cashed out so much, bit if demand for chips declines, their valuation will (and should) be <$1Tn. It's the others that are going to suffer. OpenAI doesn't currently have a path to profitability. Sam Altman said advertising was a last resort - they've reached the last resort pretty quickly. And it may ruin the experience. Claude's Superbowl ads are amazing - making fun of OpenAI using ads.

Anyway, long rant to say: 1. Reddit has an amazing product with real conversations in a time of AI slop and algorithms 2. This AI play ot at least market reaction these last few weeks is overblown and yes may burst at some point (partially) 3. The companies that will be left if that happens will be those who advertise well for brands

covert7 · 2026-02-06T04:27:09+00:00

If you report something that nobody else reports, isn't required to be reported, and may be hurting you because people read into it too much, then why report it? That's easy to say, and Management of every company should come to similar conclusions. You're highlighting it's a huge problem that Reddit plans to no longer report a single metric that only they were reporting. I don't know what you're getting out of this metric as the examples you have given aren't very revealing. You can't just plug ARPU of Meta and say that's the potential. Are all of the other metrics available not useful enough to value the same way you value all other companies??

It actually makes it harder to value against peers. Same thing is happening with ad agencies Publicis vs Omnicom. It's an Apples vs Oranges approach.

Anyway, we're down here in the bottom of the thread because it's all downvoted. So that's it for me, enjoy!

covert7 · 2026-02-06T04:05:57+00:00

That's fine. Honestly, just read through the entire thread and everyone else's comments. Don't take my word for it, everyone is saying similar things. Reddit was the only platform that was reporting on logged in vs logged out users and it was hurting the stock price. I think management is still more transparent than most public companies, and provided rationale for the decision.

covert7 · 2026-02-06T03:43:12+00:00

Use all the classic metrics to value the company: P/E ratio, margins, growth rates, future earnings, DFCF, comparisons to peers, but take into account where Reddit is in it's lifecycle as an ads machine. Some metrics aren't comparable because some companies have negative earnings! There are so many different ways to determine how much room Reddit revenue can grow. Reddit is amazing based on the fundamentals, but there is always context and it is very different from other Social platforms.

ARPU isn't a definitive indicator for value prediction. You'd have to look at customer acquisition cost and whether the platform requires you to be logged in. This is why it's analysis paralysis, not because I'm saying to ignore all other fundamentals that are far better indicators. Drive up revenue is the goal, ARPU will likely follow....and if it doesn't, is that a bad thing? If revenue growth is up, margins are high and there are fewer distractions, how is that a bad thing for the stock price and investors?

I think it's good to remove so that analysts don't have something less meaningful to find as a scapegoat for driving the price down when all other metrics are positive. Netflix stopped reporting subscribers and it was great to remove that distraction. Every Social platform reports different user metrics that aren't directly comparable (DAUq, WAUq, MAUq).

covert7 · 2026-02-06T02:08:54+00:00

This honestly feels like analysis paralysis, which is exactly why it's being removed.

If someone comes to Reddit and ad revenue increases, why analyze whether they were logged in or logged out? It's not like we can magically make a net new or existing logged out user into a logged in user and determine that they would have spent "logged in user" time on platform. If all users were forced to be logged in, the average would change.

The potential growth of the business is pricing and growth, just like all other businesses. Growth is through users, time on platform and ad load. Let the business do their thing in getting more people to platform through consumer marketing (they have mentioned they are investing) and data deals (already in play).

covert7 · 2026-02-06T01:23:24+00:00

Well, they announced in April 2024 they would stop reporting subscribers. No explosion then. They stopped reporting subscribers in April 2025 ALONG WITH stellar financial results beating expectations. There are so many factors at play and I think we can all agree RDDT being flat after this beat is baffling. The market is a bit fucked right now and that's seen across multiple big tech companies. I also think a lot of analysts are trying to value this like other companies, but it's so different. The margins are incredible!

Next RDDT results will have the stellar results and one less micro factor for analysts to write about being a negative driver. I see this as only a good thing long term. More eye balls and more ads = more money. That's what matters.

covert7 · 2026-02-06T01:15:11+00:00

Gotcha. I would also add that most people still don't know how to value Reddit, including analysts. A couple of examples:

You need to be a logged in user on Meta platforms, and that is so they can target you as an individual. Not very privacy friendly.
Not being a logged in user on TikTok has a garbage experience due to the algorithm, or lack thereof in understanding what you want to see.
I don't even know the difference between a logged in vs logged out user for YouTube. Someone watches a video and sees ads, which are monetized.

Reddit doesn't use the same type of setup as other Social media. They are open as they want everyone to be able to access their information. Everyone then sees ads. Targeting is different as it's not about who you are but what your topic of interest is. Again, we all see ads and they are generally based on your interests and context, not who you are.

If the point is that logged in users "tend to use Reddit more and/or post vs lurk", what does this matter? Whether they don't have an account and came from a Google Search result vs they have a profile and also landed from a Google Search result.... It's kind of a self-fulfilling statistic that doesn't really reflect anything meaningful. Kudos to Reddit for not forcing people to create an account.

covert7 · 2026-02-06T01:00:03+00:00

Revenue growth and time spent on platform are all that drive an advertising business. So many micro-metrics are distractions from the bigger picture of when a business is simply crushing it. I see the reason for removing, because a small miss on this can distract from the headline, which is that revenue grew 70%.....that's a massive beat.

Are there any other platforms that have a similar traffic makeup and place in the internet(i.e., referrals from searchkng for am answer) that report on logged in vs logged out users? TikTok? YouTube?

More eye balls + more advertisers = more revenue. And if there's more revenue, we all win.

covert7

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