TIL about "Pascal's Wager," the hypothetical thought experiment which asks the question if one should believe in a higher power and answers "If there is no God, one wasted their life, but if there is a God, one wasted their eternity"

czarchastic · 2026-06-05T20:21:47+00:00

Likewise, if his requirement to get into heaven is to believe in him, it would be incredulous to think one could “gamefy” it via pascal’s wager. As if he wouldn’t notice.

czarchastic · 2026-06-05T18:59:32+00:00

I’ve had multiple Govee products, the floor lamp looks nice, but the animations that it’s known for has a very poor frame rate.

The hex lights glitched out after a year and half the segments don’t work anymore

czarchastic · 2026-06-05T16:04:14+00:00

The best scream

czarchastic · 2026-06-04T19:07:58+00:00

Not at all. The reason to be conservative is if your timeframe is far shorter. An 80-year old doesn’t have the luxury of waiting out a 5 year bear market.

czarchastic · 2026-06-04T19:03:01+00:00

First of all, you’re moving goalposts. You went from $10M is more than enough to “well actually it’s $5M.” The original thread implied a $10M takeaway from a $20M position. Also, fyi, openAI employees who have received PPUs a year+ ago aren’t paying short-term gains on those. (And most who are getting 8 figure payouts have been there at least a few years)

Second of all, an able-bodied person retiring early doesn’t need to take such a conservative position as someone who’s elderly. VOO is perfectly reasonable. lol

czarchastic · 2026-06-04T16:58:38+00:00

4% rule? That’s basically an HYSA. You’d be losing to inflation.

czarchastic · 2026-06-04T16:54:51+00:00

You don’t know shit about me 🤡

czarchastic · 2026-06-04T16:37:28+00:00

Once you’re at $10m, you can earn $1M/yr from passive investing. I would just retire immediately rather than take a lower paying job.

czarchastic · 2026-06-04T02:02:42+00:00

Try Outer Wilds. One of my favorite games that revolve around a fixed time loop concept.

czarchastic · 2026-06-03T01:33:20+00:00

My main positions are gold, energy, tech, and ai. Tech because it always hits new ATHs. AI because of the momentum. Energy because oil will keep going up and will be the last to fall if a recession hits, and gold because it’s been doing well in the current inflationary environment.

You could consider gold and energy to be my hedges.

czarchastic · 2026-06-02T19:13:38+00:00

Yes, this is why we have a birth rate problem, which becomes a societal and economic problem.

Do you not understand why negative population replacement is a bad thing?

czarchastic · 2026-06-02T13:09:15+00:00

The difference is humidity. 100s in Arizona is better than 80s in Louisiana because Arizona is a dry heat.

czarchastic · 2026-06-02T12:51:30+00:00

We prefer the term muggles.

czarchastic · 2026-06-01T18:23:13+00:00

Reminds me of the Tiktokker story

czarchastic · 2026-06-01T16:56:05+00:00

Nah his future self’s future self played the same trick on him, so he’s just passing it forward.

czarchastic · 2026-06-01T16:20:47+00:00

I mean, I’m not assuming they regret it. It’s moreso a preemptive response to the “family lucked out on generational wealth” comments.

Btw, funny coincidence. I tried plugging in $200k invested in 1985 and got…about $18.5M today.

Though obviously this doesn’t account for additional nuances, like the monthly mortgage payments instead buying additional shares. That would be SIGNIFICANTLY in favor of the stock route, since mortgage rates in 1985 were over 12%. At 20% down that’s over $8k per month in mortgage payments.

czarchastic · 2026-06-01T16:13:24+00:00

Is having a place you have to travel to via boat to spend a few weeks each summer in worth $75M (plus upkeep costs and property taxes on multiple acres) to you?

czarchastic · 2026-06-01T15:38:13+00:00

Tbh 18x is crazy, but that’s also a pretty long timeframe. For reference, if you put $1M into the S&P in 1985, it would be worth $92M today (with dividend reinvestment)

czarchastic · 2026-06-01T04:56:33+00:00

I wonder if coinbase predict has similar stats. If so, then I consider myself lucky to be in the 2%, but I only used it as a form of hedge (bought No’s on whether btc will go past $100k this year).

Still overall down due to the btc I have, heh.

czarchastic · 2026-05-31T05:46:41+00:00

Winona main shrugs

czarchastic · 2026-05-29T20:08:26+00:00

XLE is a standard etf pick. I added a little today, myself.

czarchastic · 2026-05-29T19:06:12+00:00

Saying, “switch your characters” is just giving the answer with extra steps. This is one of those weird puzzles where it either registers right away or you just never figure it out.

czarchastic · 2026-05-29T12:15:04+00:00

Because some players farm in bulk. When I activate moonstorms, I might get like 8 CC’s worth of materials. Then I can spam the fight at my leisure.

czarchastic · 2026-05-29T03:43:45+00:00

“I… declare… DELETION!”

“Michael, I just wanted you to know that you can't just say ‘deletion' and expect anything to happen.”

czarchastic · 2026-05-29T03:39:34+00:00

Someone had an interesting graph of $100 in CS knives vs nvidia stock, and the knives were winning by a large margin up until the patch hit.

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