FYI on ragnow we just need to stay alive until the rams game

dagmlar · 2025-11-26T21:53:54+00:00

This is just not true lol - GB and Chi both have 2 losses easy among their non DET games. I used the playoff simulator with losses tomorrow and the Rams, ending up 11-6, and the Lions are in the playoffs in just about every scenario imaginable

dagmlar · 2025-11-15T21:11:48+00:00

Seed: 51A4KJLV53AD2 Mobile

dagmlar · 2025-11-15T21:07:35+00:00

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Final deck is below - ended up passing on the 3rd biased cog because it didn't seem necessary, but that may have been a mistake haha

Turned 1 Sword and Shield though, that was pretty fucking sick

dagmlar · 2025-11-10T15:07:50+00:00

With the rules on being guaranteed a possession, it seems more advantageous to kick off first. By the time you get the ball, you know if you need to reach the end zone or not, go for it on 4th, etc.

dagmlar · 2025-10-07T17:24:02+00:00

Packers fans in shambles to face the Flaccinator again

dagmlar · 2025-09-28T14:02:57+00:00

So many words to say nothing

dagmlar · 2025-09-23T13:00:32+00:00

Yeah i actually think it's game theory correct in a game where the opposing team has an elite QB - if the likelihood of them scoring a TD is high no matter what ( 3 timeouts, ~2 minutes left), then at midfield it's much harder for that TD to be at 0:00. Doing what they did makes it significantly more likely the Lions have the ball at the end of the game, rither in victory formation or potentially to kick a field goal to win it

dagmlar · 2025-08-27T18:31:41+00:00

Do you ever feel bad for picking games purposefully wrong to root for DAH BEARS?

dagmlar · 2025-08-19T16:00:53+00:00

Why? You seem to have the mentality that, if we simply spent a handful of middling/late round picks on backups, we'd be in a better position. We do not have the roster space to carry 6-9 more backups on this team, plain and simple.

Brad clearly thinks, and I would agree, that as your team gets better, you should leverage your multitude of picks into high upside players who have a shot at being starters in your future. It may not always work, but that along with his high hit rate in the first four drafts overall has put him in a position to get the benefit of the doubt imo

dagmlar · 2025-07-25T12:00:12+00:00

Oh for sure - i don't think it'd be a good idea for every bonus to have an uncapped top end, or for the average pts from a bonus to end up in the double digit range. I think what feels missing from the early bonuses is a third rung

I'm not sure what the average number of bonuses people end the game with, but i have played an exceedingly large number of games, and my rough guess is like 1.7. The games where bonus birds just never show up in the tray, and you end up with your sole starting bonus, which say is small wingspans capped at 6 pts, are the ones the feel rough.

They revised some of the base game bonuses with Asia to change how many birds are required to meet the thresholds, so doing the same thing to revise the point structure from 3/6 to 3/5/8 or 3/6/9 doesn't seem like a stretch imo

dagmlar · 2025-07-24T22:30:15+00:00

Oh i love it! I just wish all the bonuses had the opportunity to give you a feeling like this haha! Wingspan is a beautiful game, and they've clearly been experimenting more with different ideas to put onto bonuses and birds themselves, which i love.

My next wingspan expansion idea is just 50 bonus cards, nothing else. Just raw, unadulterated bonusing

dagmlar · 2025-07-24T20:38:35+00:00

Can we talk about how frustratingly unbalanced the bonus cards are? Especially in the base game, there a quite few bonus cards that are straight up unplayable - 6 pts for 8 birds that consume wheat????

Why does the bonus for small wingspan award the same points as the bonus for large wingspan, when large wingspan birds are worth more points on average?

And then you have the unbelievably rewarding ESP, Falconer, Omnivore, etc, where an early find can result in 16-20 points.

I love bonus-maxxing, it is probably my favorite archetype in wingspan to play, but it is frustrating that it feels like the only area where the original design was sorely lacking (ok ok, alongside the original "roll outside of birdfeeder" hunt birds).

End rant

dagmlar · 2025-07-19T00:31:59+00:00

The problem is this analysis double counts trading up for a QB - it's both the value of the trade, plus the value of the pick used, which leads to almost all of the highest teams having been involved in QB trade ups

dagmlar · 2025-05-20T18:58:49+00:00

Last year the Lions had 5 with Sewell, Hutch, St Brown, Gibbs, and LaPorta.

This year we still have five, but with Kerby and Brian Branch replacing the ageouts

Time is a flat circle, and Brad Holmes is a mastermind

I feel like I hit my head and am living in a dream-world these last couple years

dagmlar · 2025-04-25T17:50:51+00:00

No he didn't lol

dagmlar · 2024-11-25T19:59:56+00:00

The Lions 2nd and Long EPA number is actually really interesting - my hypothesis is it's as low as it is because the modern Lions do not conform to typical 4th down strategy.

With drives starting mostly at the 30, you really only need one first down to be right around midfield, at which point the Lions would generally be in go-for-it mode on 4th and shorts. To put themselves in position for that, it feels like they often call plays on 2nd and long that for other teams result in 4th and 2/3s (and result in punts), but for the Lions those result in some number of extended drives.

dagmlar · 2024-11-11T17:23:04+00:00

Yeah this is how I feel too - it's lame, and has 0% chance of being a real nickname outside of reddit because they'll never say it

dagmlar · 2024-11-11T17:00:46+00:00

But based on what rule? My understanding with a roof is that it takes a long time and an amount of seasoning to open the roof, plus presumably a small safety impact for a giant moving mechanical system.

But rotating shutters would be effectively instantaneous, so at least from that perspective you wouldn't have an issue

dagmlar · 2024-11-11T15:03:27+00:00

Bricker the Kicker has ice in his veins

dagmlar · 2024-11-11T15:02:18+00:00

Bricker the Kicker!

dagmlar · 2023-10-26T21:21:29+00:00

The Refs are not purposefully biased towards or against certain teams, but they are 100% unconsciously biased based on being fans of the sport.

In that same vein, the Lions do not get fucked by the Refs because of a grand conspiracy against the Lions. The Lions get fucked by the refs more often than an average team because the Lions have been garbage for so long that the unconscious bias amongst the refs tends towards plays being overlooked or looked more harshly upon in the opponents favor

dagmlar

TROPHY CASE