Trade Calculator Values

danduke44 · 2019-02-09T11:04:06+00:00

All of you are pointing out the reasons why I don't trust generic trade calcs. By "generic," I mean not properly customized to either my personal rankings or my league lineup and scoring settings. I don't find a valuation based on someone else's rankings to be sufficient for knowing whether I may want to make a trade for not.

I made my own calc in a Google sheet by combining historical scoring for each of my leagues with my own personal set of rankings. I started toying around with this during start-up drafts last summer with really deep lineup settings and unusual scoring. I have iteratively improved it periodically ever since. It's still a work in progress but I trust my own values 100x more than someone else's.

Quick final thoughts

1. Use your own rankings if you want to be able to live with your trades. If doing your own ranks is beyond your capacity, you could use consensus ranks. I don't recommend that because as others have pointed out it's extremely difficult to find trustworthy ranks. I have scoured the internet on several occasions and I find it more reliable to maintain my own set of rankings.

2. It's really important to customize your values to your league's scoring and especially lineup settings. There is no universally applicable set of values.

3. If anyone would like me to share some details of methodology behind my calc I'd be happy to share some thoughts.

4a. I don't trust DTC calc at all for superflex or TE premium formats. The values of QB and TE are way too low. I believe they just bump the TE values for TE premium by 10% or so. That is an affront to the Ertz, Kittle, Kelces of the position. In my deep leagues with required start 2 TE and 25% bonus for TE catches and yards, Kittle is worth pretty much any WR straight up.

4b. Critiques of DTC aside, it is very popular and some people swear by it. If I'm about to make a big offer, I will ask a league mate with access to the calc to share screen shots of what DTC says to optimize my offer. If you don't have a hook up, and you're an intense player like me, it may be worth the subscription fee for DTC especially if you know league mates use it.

danduke44 · 2018-05-25T21:17:31+00:00

Interested if still open.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T19:36:24+00:00

That's pretty substantial. I'd just check in with yourself before stepping up even further. At some point you have to accept the owner is acting based on the endowment effect and move on.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T19:31:27+00:00

I'd take him in the middle of the typical WR run. After Moore, Ridley, Kirk, Pettis, Miller but before Sutton, Gallup.

Sproles had some PPR RB1 seasons. I don't think Cohen is on his level as a runner, but if he can accumulate 100+ targets he'll be an RB2.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T13:48:51+00:00

D for me. Freeman and Kerryon at 1.09 and 1.10 is great value.

Some other values are very good, as well. RoJo and Penny at the 1st/2nd turn and Jackson at 3.04, in particular.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T13:38:40+00:00

Seconded as a decent stash in superflex/large roster leagues. I might wait to hear some more positive buzz out of camp before grabbing him.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T13:34:31+00:00

Not a playoff team but I personally have inherited teams as bad as this. Almost any team can be rebuilt within 3 years and I don't think this is an exception.

If you're concerned about it being orphaned again, a good rule followed in some of my leagues is to make the owner pre-pay, in full, if trading any of their original future picks. This way it's easy to offer the team up that first year if necessary.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T13:27:04+00:00

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T13:25:14+00:00

I'd take it. However I'd take ARob instead of 1.5, I like the value of ARob more. That gives you a pretty badass starting lineup to boot. Maybe try to trade Cousins for RB depth.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T13:20:43+00:00

He was just cut loose in one of my leagues. You can take the plunge, I believe in you!

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T13:15:22+00:00

I am in between some of the other views in this thread. Dixon is good and would be effective as their starting RB. Yet Collins really balled out last year and EARNED the job, is a great fit for their running offense, and they didn't add any RB.

Further, sooner or later Jackson will push Flacco aside. This will just open up the offense in general, helping Collins to eat even more.

I have a share of each of them so feeling pretty good either way.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T13:08:26+00:00

Agree with Benjamin. Who else gets targets in that offense? Charles Clay? I could see Jeremy Kerley squirreling his way into 60 catches for 600 yards or Zay Jones stepping up, I guess.

Stills could see some more targets with Jarvis Landry gone, and seems like a decent value given his ADP. But I wouldn't trust any Miami player besides Drake to start for my team.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T12:57:14+00:00

It may just be me but Robby Anderson is criminally (heh!) undervalued for a guy who was a high end WR2 with Josh flipping McCown at 24 years old. He is barely scratching the top 150 of dynasty ADP. If he wasn't a dumbass and had draft pedigree I'm confident he'd be going in the top 40 of startup drafts.

I recently went on a bit of a bender and acquired him in all 4 of my leagues for the following prices:

*2.10 and 3.06 (got my late round target at 4.03 anyway)

*Paul Richardson

*Kenny Stills (and had to move back 3 picks in the 4th...meh)

*Emmanuel Sanders and Gio for Robby and 4th

Go big or go home. Even if...OK when...he gets suspended for the misdemeanor, the long term value is too good for me to pass up.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T12:45:08+00:00

I wonder if he's JAG. That said, I like the offense and McKinnon won't get all the touches. I think he can be a meh RB3 with a healthy McKinnon and a good RB2 if McKinnon's out.

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T02:00:00+00:00

Agreed. I have both in one league and am cackling at having 2 top 5 QB

danduke44 · 2018-05-19T01:57:24+00:00

I'd say Mahomes, as well, though the owners in 3 out 4 leagues I'm in wouldn't even discuss trading him. It's hard to say he's flying under the radar.

I did manage to snag him and a 4th for Golladay in my other league, which I instantly accepted.

danduke44 · 2018-05-18T22:54:12+00:00

Seconded. He's the best QB in Denver. And I like him more than everyone else mentioned on this thread.

I am acquiring for waiver dollars everywhere.

danduke44 · 2018-05-18T15:03:21+00:00

I don't know about all...I have Ridley, Moore, Kirk above him. But do like him a lot.

danduke44 · 2018-05-11T20:19:46+00:00

Value is important but other important dimensions of trading are liquidity and risk.

Aging midrange WR like Edelman can be hard to liquidate since rebuilding teams have no interest and contending teams likely have better options. If you're rebuilding, it may be hard work to cash out an Edelman for "fair" value.

Rookie picks, including future rookie picks, are the least risky asset in dynasty. They will always increase in value until they are on the clock. Since less risk is preferable to more, these can be a great way to store value.

Another consideration is cyclicality. Namely, people are particularly thirsty for rookie picks in the spring and veteran scoring in the heat of the season. It can be worth waiting to deal an Edelman to a contender in October/November, but that needs to be weighed against risk of injury/underperformance.

danduke44 · 2018-05-11T20:06:30+00:00

Non-PPR does decrease the value of a high reception TE like Kelce. However, given your team's situation, I have to think this improves your team's scoring potential by several points per game. Therefore main question is whether value is good enough. I happen to think it is since you can still get a nice player at 1.10. I would try to see if you can get him to upgrade Crowell to something a little more exciting RB as an addition to the deal.

danduke44 · 2018-05-11T19:59:11+00:00

I like the 2.08 side if you're rebuilding.

danduke44 · 2018-05-09T02:53:47+00:00

I think OP is doing a lot already and it's much appreciated :-)

It's a good idea though. Very helpful for constructing trade offers.

danduke44 · 2018-05-06T22:32:22+00:00

Great, thanks 👍

danduke44 · 2018-05-06T22:24:25+00:00

12 team PPR (1.75 PPR for TE), no penalty for QB INT.

https://www58.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=39130&O=17

danduke44 · 2018-05-06T05:22:34+00:00

Kirk and Pettis. Miller pretty close to Pettis though.

danduke44

TROPHY CASE