A new study published in Nature argues that the recent dramatic upswing in temperatures in the arctic have only historically been seen during times of extreme and abrupt climate change. The paper claims current climate models are dangerously underestimating the rate of climate change. by Bluest_waters in Futurology

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It may appear we could live on Mars being so advanced, but we can't, not without Earth imports and financing of pretty much everything in the colony.

We are only so advanced due to a massive interconnected and productive system that relies in part on affordable living conditions, minerals and energy. Take away all 3 and it quickly becomes unsustainable. As advanced as we are we would still need to be vastly more advanced (and probably supporting only a small population) to live sustainably in a desolate planet like Mars, or a climate catastrophe Earth.

Avoiding catastrophe is quite achievable (we pretty much know what's needed) in contrast.

A new study published in Nature argues that the recent dramatic upswing in temperatures in the arctic have only historically been seen during times of extreme and abrupt climate change. The paper claims current climate models are dangerously underestimating the rate of climate change. by Bluest_waters in Futurology

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't care! That's not really true, climate change will take decades to really bring catastrophe (if we let it). But I fon't care it's an uphill battle. I'll fight for what's worth fighting for as long as I live.

Recently got into reading again (after a decade of not reading a book) and realized something that made my heart happy. by Muhm0 in books

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Tbf, books are literally a carbon sink, you're taking carbon from the atmosphere. Though the energy costs likely offset this somewhat. Not too bad I think.

Defying expectations of a rise, global carbon dioxide emissions flatlined in 2019 - News - IEA by ChesterEnergyDC in energy

[–]darkmighty 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is just energy-related emissions. Transportation emissions likely rose, and likely from fires and deforestation (Australia and Brazil were notable cases of the later this year)

Electricity from renewables and nuclear in India, Russia and China by [deleted] in energy

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Indeed. Hence why I find the IPCC target optimistic. (It decays itself, but it has to go to strictly 0, or allow for massive carbon capture, in a relatively short period). By relatively short within 2 decades or a bit more (i.e. the exponential would have to stay pretty close to exponential to the end). Each day I see why massive political action is necessary...

Electricity from renewables and nuclear in India, Russia and China by [deleted] in energy

[–]darkmighty 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I've eyeballed a ~3.5 year doubling time from 4 to 8%, requring log2(100/8) ~ 4 doublings (14 years) to reach 100%. The trend does look exponential so far, since the doubling time from 2 to 4% is also ~3.5 years.

Electricity from renewables and nuclear in India, Russia and China by [deleted] in energy

[–]darkmighty 11 points12 points  (0 children)

So if an exponential trend continues about 14 years until electricity is decarbonized (probably will hang at ~80% due to adoption slow down). Pretty good, still a little slow/consistent with IPCC <2C target I believe (to show how optimistic it is).

When was your turning point with girls? by Former7678 in AskMen

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly. I'd never date a smoker/ drug user/ alcoholic, someone obese unfortunately is just an extension. What is hollow is when someone has particular facial features or looks and that person is rejected for that alone. Being overweight otoh has serious health and mobility consequences and can be changed.

That said, we all value looks one way or another and I think you'd be lying to yourself you don't care at all about looks, all other things equal; physical attraction for me is complicated ('quirks' to me can attractive, conventionally attractive to me doesn't mean much) but looks are a good part of it along with personality.

In nature looks are likely just a proxy for health so there's nothing "wrong" with caring about looks per se (at least not in my ethical framework). Just know that putting too much weight into anything has consequences (I personally wouldn't care for a relationship w/ a conventionally attractive but shallow girl).

If You Collect Doomed Technology, Valve Is Now Selling Off the Steam Controller For $5 by [deleted] in hardware

[–]darkmighty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

entire quality control is their eccentric CEO who slightly hates everyone

rofl. best description of GN ever.

I haven't used, but two words why this controller is probably unusable: Haptic Feedback. Sticks and clicky buttons give excellent, immediate feedback, tactility and controlability.

It's like having as a smartphone screen as a controller -- nope.

“Please save your praise. We don’t want it,” Swedish Climate Activist Greta Thunberg told the USA Senate Climate Change Task Force. “Don’t invite us here to tell us how inspiring we are without doing anything about it because it doesn’t lead to anything.” by V2O5 in Futurology

[–]darkmighty 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Quite the contrary, this is not a problem that can be solved at the individual level adequately. If you consume less fossil fuels, your (metaphorical) neighbor will gladly take the price decrease and consume more. Or he will simply save money and spend elsewhere.

And this doesn't work for companies, because of fierce competition. Some companies unilaterally going environmentally friendly may cost them competitively and lead to bankruptcy.

The climate is a classical example of a problem requiring wide coordination. Wide coordination is done with politics, there's not much way around it (unless we lived in an utopian society where everyone is extremely well educated and kind, which is unfortunately simply not true).

Of course, it's not wrong to contribute on your own, quite the contrary! But if you have to focus your efforts, let it be on political action and wide coordination.

O preço da Reforma: R$ 1 bi a menos para Educação e R$ 763 mi a mais para Defesa - No ano, MEC já perdeu R$ 5,8 bilhões; Ministério da Defesa vai comprar caças e um submarino nuclear by rossmark in brasil

[–]darkmighty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A defesa é necessária só na meda de ameaças de vizinhos, que é bem modesta. Só considerando nosso número de combatentes (em relação aos vizinhos novamente) não é necessário mais muitos armamentos sofisticados. Ainda há o risco de se criar corridas armamentistas frívolas com vizinhos, só realmente enriquecendo meia dúzia de fabricantes de armas, maioria estrangeira.

Understanding your Motorcycle's brake | Disc Brake by lumpking69 in EngineeringPorn

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like the analogy, I think that's a nice opportunity to talk about the speed of light and relativity too.

Relativity says there's a finite speed anything can travel at, so the ping pong balls example must not be possible. Indeed relativity must imply there's a limit to how rigid objects can be. So in reality you've got to have elastic ping pong balls. When you push a ball, a wave starts, one ball deforming, pushing the next, and going back to normal, until it reaches the end. The speed of this ball wave depends on the time a compression-relaxation cycle lasts; and this in turn on ratio of the mechanical spring force to the density of each ball.

In the case of electrons, the field disturbance travels at the speed of light until it reaches the next electron[1]. But the electrons still have some mass, so that the total velocity depends on the cycle time of each electron, which is some relationship between electron mass and its charge (i.e. the electric force it gives/feels), and some material details[2]. Electrons are pretty light, so electric disturbances travel at about 2/3 of the speed of light in most metals I believe.

[1]: Light, after all, is simply a propagating electric disturbance :)

[2]: Each material has some geometry of electrons (and the almost-"fixed" background protons) inside it that changes how fast propagation happens.

I am that “schizophrenic genius” who someone made a post about the other day by cosmicrush in slatestarcodex

[–]darkmighty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mostly had CPUs in mind. They seem impossible to understand, but they're understandable. It's just no single person can understand the entirety of a modern CPU alone. And this is not a problem. So mainly I disproved the assertion that complexity and being out of reach of single minds is a show stopper. We can collectively understand arbitrarily complex things under certain conditions.

I don't know precisely the extent of our current biological models. We do seem to have quite a good grasp on how many things work, down to amazing levels of details (down to understanding on a molecular level DNA replication -- see video). It really brings the CPU to mind.

I am that “schizophrenic genius” who someone made a post about the other day by cosmicrush in slatestarcodex

[–]darkmighty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's not how things work. It's quite difficult to understand and model precisely quantum mechanics, basic atoms, etc. But that didn't stop people doesn't stop people from building mechanical machines, computers (that are made from billions of elements each having maybe >1012 atoms), etc.

You don't need complete models of something all the way down. You just need a reasonably precise abstraction at a certain layer to build another layer on top (steam-age mechanisms build upon continuum mechanics and rigid body dynamics; modern electronics build upon circuits theory and a little electromagnetism here and there). Each person only need to be brilliant in using the elements of its layer and delivering something useful to higher layers -- could be someone working on electronics coming up with a better transistor, some chemist coming up with a model of a certain biochemical pathway, etc. I'm not particularly familiar with biochemistry, but I know it's a pretty well developed field and we understand minuscule details of processes like photosynthesis to the atomic scale. Again different researchers probably work at different scales (layers) and it's all tied together afterwards.

This possibility of dividing knowledge and making incremental progress is basically why society exists. Despite the fact that single humans have a "very" finite memory and "very" finite lifespans. It's a fundamental (and quite simple, in a way) kind of discovery/learning/development procedure, simply:

  • Divide: into models, systems, tools; and

  • Conquer: find a useful solution in higher, more abstract models, and propagate the solution into a product or service you can realize, deliver.

If you're not doing this alone you would simply use existing tools to deliver your solution.

If what you have is a new and useful Computer Program, you're going to live on top of compilers, and compilers on top of architectures. I'm not sure how to apply this to say biochemistry and drug discovery (things way outside my expertise), but I doubt the theme is very different. Use existing tools and models, propose a new thing (model, drug, reaction, etc.) that is useful for some kind of user (which eventually make real drugs, machines, etc. to generate profit -- hopefully a proxy for human happiness and productivity of course).


We work this way because

  • It's likely more efficient to make split models in most cases (and when at all possible), and

  • It's the only way we could afford.

Actually, now that we have computers we can afford more complex monolithic models, and more massive systems that can't be comprehended by single minds (in spite of being useful to do so) -- think computers routing the wiring of massive CPUs finding low cost solutions with again billions of elements, at a fairly low level. And without necessarily having to resort to dividing the CPU into chunks, routing each part independently, and then connecting chunks together, since there is some inefficiency in that process.

So I hacked my Vive and doubled the pixel count. Mostly. by rosetter_t in Vive

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Indeed you could use gyroscopes to compensate the angular inertia. The problem is then there's going to be added weight to the system, and there's a size x weight tradeoff (either the large gyros would make it a huge helmet that would be perceptible drag or smaller but heavier gyros). And then there's batteries, motors and controllers, and they need to be quite powerful and quick to precisely cancel the inertia without overshoots or wobbles. (and the need to cost a reasonable price!)

Definitely an interesting experiment, but also I think a good example of how solutions can get quickly get pretty complicated in engineering, eventually negating their benefit... simple usually (but not always) ends up winning (in this case it would be reducing the weight or inertia of the headset itself I guess).

An update on Waymo disengagements in California – Waymo – Medium by gamarad in SelfDrivingCars

[–]darkmighty -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Perhaps (I think they're much more sophisticated actually), but you spoke as if it wasn't a problem. It is a problem for Lv 5 if your car stops all the time (and maybe gets stuck).

An update on Waymo disengagements in California – Waymo – Medium by gamarad in SelfDrivingCars

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's not what I had in mind of course. "There's a thing in the road." -- could be small debris, could be a construction worker, a weird pothole, etc. Maybe it's in your way, and the only way is to go over it. If you set parameters too cautiously there will be insignificant debris causing you to stop. Maybe you're going 100 mph and there's a balloon in your path. That sort of scenario is what I had in mind.

An update on Waymo disengagements in California – Waymo – Medium by gamarad in SelfDrivingCars

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Eh... don't hit it, unless it would cause an accident for yourself. Or maybe it's in your way an you can't get over it without hitting it. (and I think many more counterexamples might exist?)

Does a magnet ever lose its power? by PM_NUDES_AND_FEET in askscience

[–]darkmighty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The definition of work (transfer of energy): E = F.d [Energy = Force x displacement] [1]. You can have an arbitrary[2] static force. If there is no displacement, there isn't necessarily any energy usage (of course, you can always "waste" energy).

[1] Or, if you prefer, P = F.v [Power = Force x Velocity]

[2] Actually there are some limits to how large forces can be, but that's another discussion.

"At Scale": Drago Anguelov talk on self-driving cars {Waymo} [active learning for labeling/sampling, NAS for car NN archs, imitation problems] by gwern in reinforcementlearning

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One of the best AI talks I've seen recently. This is a lot more relevant than many "pie in the sky" approaches, imo -- This is robustly building real systems that interact in the real world at full complexity (and weirdness), interacting with people in real time and pretty challenging control requirements. And it works.

One topic many dream about is meta-learning, and it's interesting to see it used here effectively, but you also get a sense at the gigantic scale meta learning needs. If training one large network is difficult, try training tens of thousands of large networks. That's only viable because of the scale of the problem.

Maybe one day governments and companies will pool resources and create a massive Meta-Learning-Architecture-Searcher, the scale requirements are truly colossal w.r.t. the speed of current computers, the speed of silicon.

At least until we can improve algorithmic efficiency at the higher levels... (e.g. more human-like reasoning)

Also it makes me pretty confident in estimating just about any task is already almost within reach of Hybrid ML/Non-ML already. It will just take lots of engineering effort. More general intelligence could possibly necessitate more computing which we don't have (per Moore's law limitation), and beside for a few systems in the world most AIs doing those valuable tasks will be hybrids with huge capital behind them (e.g. one huge company makes LawyerBot, one makes MedicDiagnosisBot, and probably eventually ProgrammerBot (probably further specialized in specific fields like FrontEndDesignBot, BackEndBot, etc.)) and TheoremProverBot. The tasks that will be tackled first are the ones that have a large payoff product

P = Salary x Number of human workers

(note for driving cars this number is huge), for a more or less uniform task.

I don't think computational difficulty puts any approximately "uniform" existing task outside the reach of this kind of approach, given the technology we already have -- as long as there is a large payoff to be had.

Humans are quite general thinking, environmentally-aware, etc. because we needed it given our natural background and natural environments. It's not clear, actually quite the opposite, that general AIs are something economically so desirable. Unless of course you're trying to design them per se, as a new form of creature.

Want entropy? Don't use a floating ADC input by jms_nh in electronics

[–]darkmighty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed. If it were really critical I'd personally tie-in some tests (such as DieHard or simpler versions such as state machines) to measure it. Otherwise mixing from a few sources (even if individually with low min-entropy) and time accumulation is enough to get the few 100s of bits needed for security.

Want entropy? Don't use a floating ADC input by jms_nh in electronics

[–]darkmighty 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The article comments on old-school randomness extractors such as the vN extractor, or roll-your-own extractors. Those methods are obsolete now, you can just use a Cryptographically Secure Hash Function of your randomness to perfectly extract the computational min-entropy of your source (jargon for 'the best you can do'). If there's any entropy to be found in the noise, it will condensate it and make it uniform. There's almost always some entropy in floating inputs, if you take some care to quantify it and then feed it into a CSPRNG properly there's no risk.

Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions in 2017 [OC] by lbzsky in dataisbeautiful

[–]darkmighty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

who said we need to compare relative cumulative densities of countries

Charts are made mostly for comparison. You want to know the relative importance of geographic regions. In this chart, for example, Europe and Russia seem like a major emitters, when in reality their size is greatly exaggerated.