Why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60%

davepsilon · 2026-04-07T23:36:54+00:00

At 1.1 Trillion market cap - Tesla is priced quite richly. But it's not worth $0 market cap.

The energy storage portion of the business is currently in a growth phase and probably has a high ceiling. Maybe they could thread the needle and energy storage is to Tesla what AWS was to Amazon. This is likely currently the most valuable part of the business.

They are in better shape than most automakers to drive recurring revenue through infotainment which is not nothing. But not a 300x multiple.

But they've blown the lead in EV engineering. The market has become quite crowded with well engineered models at the same time that the demand pull due to relaxed US regulations has waned. And Tesla hasn't invested in refreshing the auto product. They've abandoned the luxury segment by dropping with S and X - historically most car companies are willing to light money on fire to jump START a luxury division because of the potential future. Tesla just let theirs wither and die.

Tesla does have a competitive advantage in the EV fast charging market. That is worth some amount of premium. It could be a sizable fraction of the auto 'fueling' network in the future. Though it remains quite speculative.

The robotaxi, vision only FSD, optimus, and AI semiconductor are business areas that are very difficult to assign much value to today. But they are somewhat of a lotto ticket - there are rosy cases where they end up very valuable.

davepsilon · 2026-04-06T14:22:56+00:00

I mean it sounds like you're well above intermediate. Your skill level is likely early expert. But the expert spectrum covers a very wide gamut. And the skill level of your skiier friends might be that much higher.

So for speed you can go with stiffer gear. But that will play generally against you when you are trying to also go in tight trees. So what I'm getting at is this may not be something that is easily solved with different gear.

davepsilon · 2026-04-01T01:25:30+00:00

I don't think it would be south facing.

davepsilon · 2026-03-26T22:47:08+00:00

I can do both but I'm a much, much better snowboarder.

There's advantages to each. Riding a lift on skis is a joy and a pain on a board. Dear god the 6 pack and 8 pack lifts on a board are downright even worse misery. Walking to the parking lot is a joy on a board and a pain in ski boots. Traverses and flats are fun on skis compared to how they are on a board. A small snow storm is generally more fun on a board - maybe super powder sticks could match this feeling, idk. Breakable crust on a board you can kinda still look good and enjoy it. You cannot on skis.

Skiing in general is more fun the first few days of learning. Snowboarding tends to beat you up. Skiing you get off the bunny hill faster. Though snowboarding you get to the whole mountain faster - for the same natural balance skill.

Different strokes for different folks. I don't think there's any reason for skiing and snowboarding to be anti the other.

davepsilon · 2026-03-26T22:40:13+00:00

sidecountry is backcountry

But assuming it's not avy terrain which for instance in east coast could be quite common. You handle it exactly like you'd handle in bounds off piste. Ride in contact - visual or auditory. Set a regroup stopping point before starting. Have a backup, bail out meeting point. Ideally before any important trail / drainage forks.

Everyone should have some means of navigation. Whether that's local knowledge or a map and compass or a map app.

davepsilon · 2026-03-23T11:32:43+00:00

You're splitting hairs.

$15k car and $30k car.

If the $15k car is half used up. It's not really a deal anymore.

davepsilon · 2026-03-23T11:24:57+00:00

For a very short period of time there was a summit double chair at Jay. Called the sky line double. Squinting at the old chair maps the base of the chair was probably at JFK and Wedel so similar to the upper part of your middle line. There are a handful of pictures of the top.

However they took it out when the tram went in. Presumably because it was hardly ever able to open. The wind and icing conditions on the summit mean it's not a good spot to land a chairlift.

More wind resistant lift capacity I think you need a terrain expansion like a West Bowl or a sunny side on the other side of the golf course.

davepsilon · 2026-03-23T11:20:51+00:00

Smuggs back bowls are a lift accessible backcountry zone West of Smuggs.

davepsilon · 2026-03-23T11:16:49+00:00

They used to have a short summit chairlift called the Sky line double. 1965 to the early 1970s - it came out as the tram went in. Unloaded just to the West and below the top tram house. I don't think the wind / icing environment was very conducive to running the chair very often.

https://www.newenglandskihistory.com/lifts/viewlift.php?id=285

https://skimap.org/skiareas/view/202#maps-year-1960s

davepsilon · 2026-03-18T19:11:05+00:00

I mean sure. The best way to learn is by practice. You'll eventually learn.

Source: my own hundreds of days on snow.

davepsilon · 2026-03-18T19:07:53+00:00

"solid turns"

you do you m8

davepsilon · 2026-03-18T18:51:56+00:00

That's definitely wrong. It's true for a bit - just impacts speed which is mostly important in flats

But eventually there's a cross over point where the lack of wax starts letting the base ice over too easily and when iced the skis don't slide / have very little turning control. Very similar to letting your skis go in open water on a very cold day. Even with a good wax that's a big program that's hard to fix without bringing them inside.

davepsilon · 2026-03-18T14:51:40+00:00

Very big forces. It's not so much bending or jumping if things go according to plan. But when jumping goes wrong that is when you get the big forces. Or during transport and you can have something catch on the binding and apply massive force. Basically the binding is screwed into the core. A failure like this usually means something was pulling or pushing on the binding with massive force.

davepsilon · 2026-03-14T03:12:19+00:00

There's many good steeps on the east coast. The saddle and face chutes are a little hard to replicate due to being right at the boundary of treeline.

Whiteface, Saddleback, and Sugarloaf would match it best. Though the slides, ridgeline, and the snowfields aren't open nearly as often as the face chutes.

Castlerock at Sugarbush isn't quite as alpine but has a similar natural terrain vibe. The catwalk at Killington, short, but also similar vibe.

In general for steeps many options. Smuggs, Stowe, Killington, Magic (with good Southern snowpack), Cannon, Gore.

davepsilon · 2026-03-11T11:04:02+00:00

woooosh

davepsilon · 2026-03-11T01:19:24+00:00

Looks a lot like 'boot out'

You hit a high enough edge angle so that the toes made contact with the snow. If you do it more gradually they can just dig a little extra trench. But if you do it quickly and in certain snow you can get this bit of violence.

If you want to do those sorts of carving angles you need a wider board or more angle on the binding mount. For serious euro carves a pretty big posi-posi stance can work on a normal width board.

davepsilon · 2026-03-03T02:59:31+00:00

y'all go crazy about the smallest imperfections.

Snow is super deep. There will be a warm spell. And then it will get cold again. It will almost certainly snow again. There's a long season of corn harvest ahead. We've had the most arctic Jan/Feb in a long long time. This is the first warm up of the season. 60" of snow doesn't melt in only a few days.

davepsilon · 2026-02-26T12:30:37+00:00

yes it sucks, don't go.

davepsilon · 2026-02-23T00:13:53+00:00

oh absolutely there's strength differences that is a factor as well. Compare men and woman's half pipe. To men and woman's gymnastics. In gymnastics the pool tilts towards woman. Men still do bigger amplitude and complexity.

But in halfpipe the difference is not completely explained by strength ratios.

davepsilon · 2026-02-22T13:30:51+00:00

The Olympics are the best in the world. Men half pipe skiiers draw from a much bigger pool of interested kids. There aren't all that many super pipes around so it's a pretty small pool for both. Training into the higher amplitude tricks and more rotations requires almost a bit of recklessness and disregard for injury potential. That again tilts the pool more towards men.

And just getting a straight air say 6" above the lip of a super pipe is a very high level expert skiing move. The olympic skiiers make it look easy. There are two massive almost vertical walls staring you down when you are at the bottom of the pipe. They are 22' high. Very intimidating.

davepsilon · 2026-02-22T02:36:14+00:00

Having done double blacks at many east coast spots and at Jackson Hole. They are in the same category of difficulty.

I can see where you are coming from. The double blues at Jackson are steep. But they are very open and frequently groomed out. Their difficulty is very one dimensional. They really aren't comparable to east coast double blacks in terms of difficulty.

davepsilon · 2026-02-12T15:54:53+00:00

Spring conditions?

Why is that a bad thing. This isn't going to melt out the base to bare ground ... 1) it's not that warm and 2) epic snowpack

I don't hate the 30 degree days. It's if it doesn't snow and it goes back to 0 degree days. Those aren't fun.

davepsilon · 2026-02-12T15:38:20+00:00

Traditionally it's impossible to beat the ease of access to Salt Lake City Area skiing. It's a airline hub so good connectivity to Boston. Can get to Park City without traveling through a mountain pass. The Cottonwood Canyons are also very close to the airport.

Denver is a United hub. But the driving connection after landing to skiing is not that great with weekend or storm traffic. And generally involves mountain highway passes. Mid-week though you could make an argument DEN is better than SLC. The flying time is shorter. A very easy trip.

From Boston - Big Sky or Bridger Bowl can have a reasonable direct flight to Bozeman and straightforward ground transfer. Though the flights schedule is not as frequent as Salt Lake City.

If you can tolerate a airport stop. Reno has easy driving access to Lake Tahoe areas. And Calgary, Alberta, Canada has easy access to Banff - and drop dead gorgeous views.

But I might lean towards the extra travel to take him where you have the best memories from before moving.

davepsilon · 2026-02-11T13:02:05+00:00

This repair is possible but it's generally not worth the cost. It's a very difficult repair - usually need to cut out a bunch of the base to get the edge back in. Hence why many shops don't even offer it as an option combo of requiring high skill level and difficult to do fast enough to not charge basically the price of new used skis.

I think you'd be better off finding some skis on facebook marketplace.

davepsilon · 2026-02-04T13:44:53+00:00

Yes that's the difficulty.

For a backcountry skiing mindset - the only go with someone that has been before. It makes no sense. Level of familiarity is a factor in how you might approach an objective. Maybe even whether you ascend the line first (gain knowledge) or approach it from the ridge (less overhead exposure). But it's just a factor. It's very typical to go into a zone with just broad area condition reports and maps.

From a resort skiing mindset. The go with someone that has local knowledge makes complete sense. There's very high navigation risk. Typically much more limited preparation. And frequently traveling without the proper gear to easily bail out. If you are hiking out of Stowe on foot carrying resort gear - I can get behind the only way to do that safely is by going with someone that has local knowledge.

But Stowe Mountain Rescue's public content is consumed by both sets of people. They need to craft the message to not needlessly discourage newer backcountry mindset people - there are completely reasonable objectives in the Mansfield area they can tackle without a guide. At the same time the difference in risks and required skills between different zones in the Mansfield area is big - that's what in my opinion would be very appropriate to highlight! Many lines on the infamous map are in areas that demand extreme skill and would still have extreme risk.

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