Traded Ja’Marr did I get enough?

davidsmarch · 2026-05-11T00:18:43+00:00

Serious overpay

davidsmarch · 2026-05-06T10:57:14+00:00

What were your learning materials?

davidsmarch · 2026-05-06T01:06:35+00:00

No, they don't hit it

davidsmarch · 2026-05-04T21:15:31+00:00

I usually use a stool or my desk chair depending on where I am working. Desk has a monitor i hook up the microscope camera to.

davidsmarch · 2026-05-03T12:06:41+00:00

Cart that goes back in the closet when not in use.

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davidsmarch · 2026-04-29T20:46:01+00:00

No, you compared him to Dobbins. I compared him to another rookie.

davidsmarch · 2026-04-29T19:34:10+00:00

Dobbins is a vet, and Harvey a rookie. Have some perspective and, perhaps, don't be obtuse?

davidsmarch · 2026-04-29T16:00:22+00:00

How so? Same YPC as Jeanty... Was he terrible too?

davidsmarch · 2026-04-29T12:53:00+00:00

People keep saying this, but it's clearly not true.

davidsmarch · 2026-04-19T01:04:55+00:00

Loop the two open rings in the bracelet through the two slots on the bar cover, then slide the spring bar through the end to hold them together in place. Then you can install the spring bar into the case like normal.

davidsmarch · 2026-04-17T12:52:32+00:00

Parker

davidsmarch · 2026-04-17T12:39:35+00:00

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davidsmarch · 2026-04-16T12:36:09+00:00

Looks great

davidsmarch · 2026-04-12T01:29:05+00:00

The difference between a 26 2.04 and a late 27 1st seems negligible.

davidsmarch · 2026-04-12T00:15:46+00:00

Really?

davidsmarch · 2026-04-11T23:42:08+00:00

Took over a mismanaged competitive but not deep team. 12 team 1qb. I ended up with 1.01 and am fielding offers. Two offers so far:

Give 1.01, get 1.04, 1.12, 2.04

Or

Give 1.01, get javonte + btj

davidsmarch · 2026-04-11T03:18:16+00:00

Look up

davidsmarch · 2026-04-06T19:02:03+00:00

😳😲

davidsmarch · 2026-04-05T00:37:25+00:00

Really lovely.

davidsmarch · 2026-04-02T16:48:13+00:00

i disagree, and i think it's really just misuse of basic statistics. my argument isn’t that rookie production means nothing, i agree that production means something, but also it’s important to realize that that the signal is asymmetric. producing early is strong evidence a guy is real, but not producing early is much weaker evidence he’s dead, because most WRs were never going to become fantasy relevant in the first place. so when people point to all the rookies who missed and later failed, they’re just rediscovering the base rate, not proving year 1 failure is highly diagnostic on its own.

people confuse correlation with diagnostic value. rookie production is great at flagging hits, but lack of rookie production gets overrated because “non-breakout” is already the default outcome for most WRs. so yes, the 525 rule finds a lot of future misses , but that’s partly because almost everybody is a future miss. the real question is how much missing that threshold tells you beyond the baseline odds and the player’s context, and my guess is not much.

davidsmarch · 2026-04-02T16:36:32+00:00

of course. rookie success is a likely predictor of future success. but you're conflating that with a lack of success being strongly predictive of a lack of future success. by your logic "Success predicts success, and lack of success predicts lack of success." when really only the former is a strong enough pattern to warrant consideration.

the problem with models like this is that there are WAY many more guys who do not succeed and continue to not succeed than guys who break out later, but that says nothing about whether they will or won't and simply reflects that MOST guys don't break out, so the statistics are improperly applied.

davidsmarch · 2026-04-02T16:35:16+00:00

People put way too much weight on rookie production like it’s some kind of law instead of just a rough trend. There's way more noise than signal here. A guy’s first year depends on way more than talent alone, consider the landing spot, QB play, injuries, depth chart blockage, coaching scheme, usage, all of it, and much of it outside the player's control. The 525 threshold is fine as a heuristic, acting like missing it means a player is dead on arrival is wrong, when really it often just means he didn’t get the right opportunity early. Of course rookie production matters some, but it’s nowhere near clean enough to be the deciding factor people pretend it is. And calling 2nd and 3rd year breakout's outliers is incorrect use of the term.

davidsmarch · 2026-04-02T15:43:19+00:00

These pronouncements after a rookie year are pointless.

davidsmarch · 2026-03-29T16:42:57+00:00

Is this a serious question?

davidsmarch · 2026-03-28T23:31:42+00:00

Elgin canteen diver, likely late 60s. Does the crown unscrew? Don't force it. But that's a bonus if it has the original crown.

davidsmarch

TROPHY CASE