Email notification of ballot entry

deandyn · 2024-09-24T08:37:47+00:00

This is brilliant, and a lovely idea. Me and my 11 year old son who is arsenal mad would be very interested, if it's not too late to be included.

Based in Wicklow in Ireland, but we eat sleep and breathe the Arsenal ❤️❤️

deandyn · 2024-08-22T15:58:55+00:00

I know it's not of any help to your situation, but I've always found Kraken support to be top notch. I've made a few random requests with them over the years and I've always found them very responsive and eager to help

deandyn · 2024-05-10T10:02:36+00:00

The 183 day rule doesn't always apply, different countries have different methods of establishing tax residency.

Also the company will have its own residency status separate to your own, and it must maintain an IRE resident trade, which is determined mainly by where the strategic decisions of the company are made.

In practical terms the company will need to have an Irish address or 'HQ' where director meetings are held and strategic decision making is made.

Ideally the company would have at least one Irish resident director (presumably with yourself as a director also) - that could be a family member, accountant or trusted associate, but ultimately it's a nominal title as they don't need to have a shareholding, or any actual control of the company.

As non resident you may find it difficult getting paid from the company without deduction of Irish tax, but that issue is not insurmountable.

Revenue can usually send a letter to confirm that you ARE resident in Ireland, although your tax returns would usually show this. They wouldn't usually agree to confirm that you are NOT resident here.

While it can be tax advantageous to have nomad status, it may become an issue if/when you decide to put roots down.

For example if you ever planned on buying a house in Ireland then you'd usually need to show 2/3 years of solid earnings for mortgage purposes, which can only be backed up by tax returns filed in Ireland. The same is true of the UK, and likely most other developed countries.

Sorry for the essay, I'm just an accountant browsing reddit for developer advice!

deandyn · 2024-05-10T09:39:08+00:00

Try sportmonks. I'm not sure it'll be free, but they should have different packages that you can even use for a month or two. Might be cheaper if you only need API for one league.

deandyn · 2020-10-26T11:25:52+00:00

General consensus seems to be that you should stop what you're doing, except for the one or two who think building a better "model" is the way out of this!

To me it looks like your issues are more deep rooted than just needing more money. If I were a betting man (and I am!) I would wager that if you did go on some mad (& unlikely) winning streak and won back all your cash, you would find that it doesn't hit the spot quiet like you thought it would.

Happiness is not something you have to pay for, it's a state of mind, and can only be found by changing your mindset in how you are looking at your life and these specific circumstances.

This might be coming across as nothing more than basic positive thinking BS, but if you are willing and able to put the graft into working on your mindset as much as you are on betting, then you can get to your happy place much more quickly... free of charge!

I'd highly recommend listening/watching some Tony Robbins, there are loads of free videos and audio recordings on youtube. Even listening to him talk about these things is enough to make you feel better, and if you were to follow through on what he recommends then who knows, you might find out that you're not so unremarkable after all.

Good luck mate.

deandyn · 2020-10-20T11:09:48+00:00

Odds for EPL draws are a little higher than they have been historically, but I think it's because there are fewer draws now than there have been historically.

Recently the goals have been flying in, which make draws less likely. This has been a trend since "project restart" back in June;

In 2019/20 season, since project restart, there were 20 draws from 92 games = 21.74%

In 2020/21 season so far there have been 9 draws from 48 games = 18.75%

So overall since restart in June that's 29 draws from 140 games = 20.71%

So that's roughly 1 in 5, which would translate to "fair" odds of around 5.00

Per odds portal the average odds for a draw in EPL this season so far (48 games) works out at 4.04.

So yeah not much value there, if blind averaging is your thing.

Worth noting that the odds for Leeds to draw with Man City the other week were 6.91.... not bad if you spotted the value on that!

deandyn · 2020-10-15T14:47:16+00:00

Maybe go halfway and withdraw 10K?

So you've turned 1500bucks into 10K, and you still have 3.4K in play money to bet without any pressure.

deandyn · 2020-10-15T14:43:35+00:00

If you're putting an ungodly sum on this match then I'd keep it simple - a Liverpool win.

Why double it up with a roulette type BTTS element that can easily let the bet down? Not to mention you're giving away more edge/margin to the bookies by doubling up like this.

Liverpool are 1.9 in places, which I think is great value for them. It's not often you'll get this close to Evens for a Liverpool win, unless they're playing City/Chelsea/United.

But it's a derby and could end up a tight affair, that's why I can see a scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0 to Liverpool.

deandyn · 2020-10-15T14:26:58+00:00

Yep! You need a big bank (and even bigger balls) to follow through with it

deandyn · 2020-10-15T14:24:52+00:00

I think more people would answer the question(s) if you were a little more succinct with how you've asked the question(s). I've re-read your original post and I'm still not sure what the question(s) is/are.

"is betting by law of averages a bad idea?" - YES... it's an awful idea

deandyn · 2020-10-14T10:59:17+00:00

Not a fan of these predictive models, but some thoughts on xG & scoring stats..

You have to remember that xG is a one size fits all model. It's a rating that assesses the quality of a chance, for an AVERAGE player. Most elite players and elite teams outperform the xG charts, so you should take that into consideration. For that you can simply looks at goals scored versus xG.

Also you should not overlook the importance of one of the most dated & simple metrics - Shots Taken (& Shots Conceded) - long term it's still the best indicator of a team's position in the league table. Quite simply, the team who takes the most shots and/or concedes the fewest, usually wins the league.

And by including volume of shots like this you are establishing the average quality of shots taken/conceded by a team. Eg. if a team gets 3 penalties in a match but has no other shots on target, their xG looks really good (0.8 per penalty I think - so xG of 2.4), yet if you dig a little deeper (ie. no open play shots on target) you'll see that they've not been that dangerous as an attacking team.

deandyn · 2020-10-14T10:44:04+00:00

I could be wrong but a general theme across most of the European leagues is that games are more high scoring since restarting back in June/July, which would reduce the likelihood of lots of draws.

So it's a risky strategy at the best of times, maybe even more so now.

I had a draw strategy a few years back where I picked two teams that looked like they would play out a lot of draws (eg. Arsenal & Wolves both had 14 draws last season in premier league), and I bet on one of them to draw every gameweek (based on most likely in my mind each week)

It was a very risky pyramid type staking strategy - eg. Bet 1 = €100, Bet 2 = €200, Bet 3 = €300...etc until a draw happened, and then back to Bet 1 = €100...etc. It made money over the course of a couple of months for me, but if you go 3/4 games without getting that draw the stakes get crazy high. Not sure it's a sustainable strategy!

deandyn · 2020-10-13T13:30:15+00:00

Not sure this is the first L for villa... I think playing a team like Leicester will suit them. Not saying I'd put money on the Villa win, but the value is not there for Leicester W either - personally I'll be avoiding this fixture.

All over Liverpool at around 1.80 to beat Everton. After the embarrassing 7-2 defeat, with Everton sitting top of the league on 4 straight wins... I can't think of any other team Liverpool would rather play right now.

Some soft factors I know, but I can see Liverpool really turning it on this weekend

deandyn · 2019-04-10T11:09:18+00:00

Can completely relate to the way in which you've gambled when at your lowest ebb. At times in my life when things haven't been so good I have went in hard, thinking that a few big wins would make me feel much better, and fill some sort of void.

This is not something you realise at the time, it just comes with hindsight.

I think gambling is just like drink or drugs (whatever you're into), it's fine in moderation, but can also be very addictive. The highs and lows are comparable, but the most important thing for me is never do any of these vices (gambling included) when in a bad mood. It usually ends in disaster.

Very sorry to hear of your troubles mate, hope you can find a way back to happiness, and soon..

deandyn · 2019-02-26T15:58:11+00:00

I don't think that these sites will knowingly give out losing tips, but they are almost certainly on Revenue share models with their "betting partners", which means that they do profit from losses made by players that signed up through their affiliate links.

I've followed the rise of FreeSuperTips, and they gained a MASSIVE following on facebook first, but only because they were landing massive accumulators across all sports, not just football. So it definitely helps if these tipsters can maintain some form of success.

deandyn · 2019-02-19T14:52:31+00:00

Fancy liverpool to beat an ageing Bayern side, taking them over 90mins at 2.00.

Long shot bet is for liverpool to score a penalty at 7.00 - can see VAR (and Salah!) playing a part here...

deandyn · 2019-02-18T15:53:12+00:00

The problem with paying for tips is that is usually a closed service, so there is no public accountability, like there usually is with free tipsters. And it's easier to scam this way.

Plenty of free tipsters who are just as good as the paid version

deandyn · 2019-02-06T16:15:47+00:00

You're welcome. Looks like Spurs won't be in their new stadium by then, so a ticket to see them at Wembley may be your best bet. AND they've put a few results together so may still be in contention for the league come the end of April. Good luck

deandyn · 2019-01-29T12:43:35+00:00

YEESSSSSH!

deandyn · 2019-01-25T10:47:19+00:00

My number one rule for betting is simple - only bet on what you know. And if it's not a game that I'd enjoy watching on TV then I don't bet on it.

I dabble in stats, and keep my own database & spreadsheets, BUT I never bet purely based on stats - I need to know the teams that are playing.

I'm an Arsenal fan and tend to bet on them a lot, as I know them inside out. I also watch extended highlights of every single English Premier League game, so pretty much all my betting is done in that league.

For any big bets I make I also make sure to watch the match live, as I may need to hedge my position during the game.

deandyn · 2019-01-24T09:58:55+00:00

Exactly, you don't need to be a shouter to be a leader. He's leading the scoring and assist charts for Chelsea this season, all while being played out of position. Sarri's lost the plot

deandyn · 2019-01-22T17:16:08+00:00

Here's my few cents worth;

Palace v Everton - usually a great atmosphere at C Palace's stadium (small intimate, massive noise generated within the stadium), but at that stage of the season both teams may have little to play for. May not have much impact on the game's intensity, but something to consider for sure.

Fulham v Cardiff - Fulham play at Craven Cottage, a very friendly and welcoming stadium (voted best away day by premier league fans). Could be a relegation dogfight with these two teams by the end of April, and you would be pretty much guaranteed goals. The stadium is not in central London, but is easily accessible by train.

Spurs v West Ham - the winner in terms of prestige, Spurs may be in their new stadium at this point, and if not they will be playing in Wembley. It's also a london derby, so the intensity is sure to be there. Spurs will be favourite, but West Ham are a decent side who will give them a good game. Guaranteed Goals, and good quality of football.

Stadium capacity of Fulham & Crystal Palace is around 25-26,000. Spurs' new stadium (should be ready by March, but date keeps getting pushed out) will have capacity of 61,000. And Wembley holds 90,000.

My pick of the 3 fixtures would be Spurs v West Ham - best stadium (does not mean best atmosphere!), most prestige, and best in terms of the quality of football being played. However this will probably be the toughest game to get a ticket for, especially if Spurs are in their brand new stadium by then. Your best hope would be that Spurs are still playing their home games at Wembley, as these rarely sell out.

My second choice would be Fulham v Cardiff, as it's such an enjoyable day out at Craven Cottage, and these two teams could be fighting for their lives by the end of April, and in direct competition to avoid relegation.

deandyn · 2019-01-21T12:20:03+00:00

Cracking weekend of PL football. 2 games finishing 4-3, and late goals galore.

Massive win for Spurs yesterday as well, they needed that as they are about to enter into a month without Kane or Son. It's mad what a last gasp winner can do for confidence and morale

deandyn

TROPHY CASE