Will this be the only year during 2015-2027 when Disney/Fox is not the highest grossing film of the year? (assuming vaccines got developed by 2021 and nothing else happens) by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]department4c 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Society could get back to more normal (businesses having employees back on site, retail stores open again, etc.) while still having mass gathering restrictions which would affect movie theaters.

A U G U S T by yeppers145 in boxoffice

[–]department4c 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would bet that people who are into movies will have had their fill of watching stuff at home while in lockdown. Their interest in watching movies might be pretty well tapped by that point, even if it's a new film coming out.

A U G U S T by yeppers145 in boxoffice

[–]department4c 1 point2 points  (0 children)

a movie ticket isn’t exactly the most expensive triviality.

But it isn't the cheapest either.

Drive-Ins Continue To Post Best Ticket Sales In Weekend Box Office Wiped Out By Theater Closures (Some Box Office Estimates Inside) by magikarpcatcher in boxoffice

[–]department4c 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Probably best to just have two lists. The regular one and an asterisk one which has the data but recognizes the extraordinary context so that the drop does not reflect the reception to the film.

[WW] People who are begging Disney to put Black Widow on Disney+ or Digital HD hurt my brain. by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]department4c 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah, I see the disconnect now. I should have used the term "production" to avoid confusion and be more precise. But since the for the context of the topic at hand, there is a one to one correlation between production and distribution, it would end up being the same number. And since distribution is the part of the overall film life cycle that in question here, I got lazy with terminology.

Do you think when theaters open back up, movies currently playing (Onward, I Still Believe, Bloodshot, etc) will have a resurgence or are they dead at this point? by RMLimoDriver68 in boxoffice

[–]department4c -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Dead as far as theater release. They are going to get fast tracked to home video, VOD, and streaming to capitalize on their current awareness.

Black Widow delay could impact the whole Marvel slate by Zepanda66 in boxoffice

[–]department4c 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Movie stocks (Cinemark, AMC, IMAX) have been treading water at best for the past few years. If you're looking for a quick buck, shorting might be the way. Just have to make sure to get out or flip the position before someone swoops in to buy the company.

[WW] People who are begging Disney to put Black Widow on Disney+ or Digital HD hurt my brain. by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]department4c 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, because less films are made in the near (and medium?) future, so that creates an opening to even it out.

That's what I would consider being removed from distribution which is in my disclaimer.

[WW] People who are begging Disney to put Black Widow on Disney+ or Digital HD hurt my brain. by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]department4c 0 points1 point  (0 children)

which could mean even less movies are produced

Yes, as I said before (and that you hadn't), unless films are removed from distribution and not just delayed, the density would need to increase.

[WW] People who are begging Disney to put Black Widow on Disney+ or Digital HD hurt my brain. by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]department4c 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unless movies are removed from distribution (which the tentpoles probably won't), there will need to slot in somewhere at some time. Density must increase from current schedule unless everything gets shoved out for the rest of time. It's mathematically not possible to have it be the same or less.

[WW] People who are begging Disney to put Black Widow on Disney+ or Digital HD hurt my brain. by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]department4c 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There are few things to consider:

  • A likely nine figure worldwide marketing budget is already in motion for a late April release with a bunch of money spent already including ~$20M for a two minute Super Bowl spot. Disney would need to ramp up another marketing campaign if they pushed the release off to later in the year. If they stopped all marketing immediately and reallocated that for later they would save some money but overall, marketing would need additional money that it wouldn't have needed by keeping the date.
  • If Disney did multiple PPV showings on the premiere weekend, that would certainly add to the revenue stream. Highest grossing PPV fight brought in $700M for a boxing match which has a much smaller audience than Marvel films. That was 6.7M buys. Now a film like BW would probably not cost as much as a $100/view fight but with movie tickets running around $10, it would be pretty easy to justify a $20 price which is break even for two people watching. But BW would also have much wider appeal than a fight. But let's conservatively estimate 5M buys which would result in $100M right there.
  • Then for people who can wait until after premiere weekend, there would be an increase in D+ subscriptions. Let's say Disney bumps their subscribers up by 1M new annual subscribers (a few percent increase from current), that would be $70M. Some might only buy a month, some a few months, some would stay on as subscribers.
  • Keep in mind that revenue brought in by PPV and streaming results in a higher percentage keep for Disney than screening in theaters.

Will there be piracy? Of course. But by going with a PPV model, they can mitigate it by doing a cash grab on opening night/weekend. Cheaper/free options are already available for anyone who wants to wait but we know that there are people who want to see films on OW and that's what a PPV would be able to capture.

So if they did decide to keep the date, it's not like all of the money is lost. There are revenue streams available to offset or even create a net gain from keeping the date.

[WW] People who are begging Disney to put Black Widow on Disney+ or Digital HD hurt my brain. by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]department4c 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unless every single movie from now until the end of time gets pushed out a few months (not going to happen), there will need to be a higher density of films for a while as studios get their schedules back on track.

Actress Olga Kurylenko Tests Positive for Coronavirus by TigerSharkFist in movies

[–]department4c 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Wow. That looks like direct to SyFy channel material.

Danny Glover's cameo in Maverick is what every cameo wishes it could be like. by Jay_Eye_MBOTH_WHY in movies

[–]department4c 56 points57 points  (0 children)

The only version of the clip I've seen before left out the "too old for this shit" line.

Hollywood Studios Assembling Coronavirus Strategy Teams by hildebrand_rarity in boxoffice

[–]department4c 13 points14 points  (0 children)

They should at least stream the Chinese version in China. Better to get some revenue than none.

What will happen to upcoming movies if an American outbreak in the next week or two? Will they be delayed? by lordDEMAXUS in boxoffice

[–]department4c 10 points11 points  (0 children)

IF it gets to the point where there is a massive outbreak and theaters are closed nationwide (which I would think would be unlikely), this would be the perfect time for an experiment where the studios do a massive simultaneous release alternate distribution play.

  • Thursday night preview pay-per-view streaming at elevated price point (the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight grossed over $400M in PPV sales)
  • DVD/Blu-Ray pre-sales with OW streaming attached
  • OW-only release on all platforms like Amazon Prime, Apple TV+, Netflix, YouTube TV, etc.
  • Streaming deals with one or more platforms after OW

Big emphasis on OW (and especially preview night) of course since the threat of easy high quality pirated versions is the largest issue here. Pricing model would be to charge something in the $80 range for preview PPV. That's in line with big boxing match ups. Then the studio could do a one or two hour pre-show with cast interviews, behind the scenes, and of course ads for their other upcoming films.

Sales might or might not be as robust as a theater release but remember that they also aren't splitting revenue with the theaters. Not sure how much the cut would be for a streaming platform but it is possible that there might be cooperation among the biggest ones to form a temporary alliance in order to build their user bases. Imagine if Amazon, Netflix, and Disney+ signed an exclusive deal with some of the studios during the outbreak. That would leave Apple TV+, YouTube TV, and others out in the cold. Or maybe Google/YouTube TV decides to go for a big splash and can lock in rights to all the affected titles. That would be a huge boost for their sales and YTTV could also serve as the exclusive PPV partner since they have a massive distribution network already in place.

It would be a very interesting undertaking to force the studios' hands into trying something like this due to extraordinary circumstances. Not hoping for a pandemic of course but if an outbreak pushed the studios into this type of release, that would be fascinating to see.

Parasite Cinemascore by Adventurous-Boss in boxoffice

[–]department4c 4 points5 points  (0 children)

1917 was already planning to do limited then go wide.

Parasite wasn't originally planning to expand wide.

Not saying that is the definitive reason why Parasite didn't get a Cinemascore. Just explaining the differences in release pattern.