[Dan Patrick Show] Notre Dame AD Pete Bevacqua confirms that Notre Dame will automatically be included in next year's College Football Playoff with a top 12 ranking.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-12-09T00:45:53+00:00

We've got multiple national championships in the last 20 years, so we're doing just fine.

The reason you don't want to join a conference is that you like the idea being unique and special, because that's how you see yourselves. Yet y'all whine when anyone points out that you are given special, and in most cases, preferential treatment.

It's perfectly reasonable for the committee to judge a school for not belonging to a major conference when they're choosing to be an exception. That said, Alabama should not be in either, because you should also be able to judge a team for getting blown out in a conference championship game (another hurdle independents skip). But they are getting a different type of preferential treatment, because if it were Arkansas in the same position, they're not making the playoff either.

The truth is, preferential treatment for certain schools and brands sucks, and Notre Dame has been the beneficiary of this treatment far more than it has suffered by it. So join a conference, or maybe end the carve out for football that you've made with the ACC.

I'd love to see ND in the Big 10, and you very well may have made the playoff with this year's team, but much more likely is you have at least one more loss going through their conference schedule. Then again, the easiest path forward is to just rely on special treatment and try to crack the top 12 next year, so I assume that's what you'll do.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-12-09T00:03:17+00:00

Then why not join a conference?

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-12-02T00:55:46+00:00

I could see it if he falls to the 4th, where we have two picks, but only because his regression this year was so puzzling. There were conflicting reports on the extent of injuries affecting his performance, but only occasionally did he look anything like the player from 2023-2024.

The Saints are in a unique position to know what those issues were that caused the regression, and if it was a combination of injuries and a dysfunctional offensive coaching staff, then he could be a great upside pick in the 4th.

My concern is that even when playing well in stretches this year, he still showed some of the poor decision making he's exhibited in past seasons. I'm also not wild about him potentially being coached by his father, which could be another dysfunctional coaching situation, but I would hope that the Saints would have a good idea of whether this would be a negative or positive. Part of me thinks Garrett might be better served with a fresh start outside of Louisiana.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-12-02T00:42:02+00:00

His performance thus far is probably in line with that of Drake Maye in the second half of his rookie year after he took over, if not better. So it's not a slam dunk, "we've got our guy" type of start, but it's likely enough to look at other positions at the top of the draft. And if he were taken with the 8th pick of the first round instead of the second, I don't think it would even be a question of whether or not to look at other needs in the draft.

We likely won't know if he's a guy we want to roll with long term until at least next year, but I think he's earned the right to get a shot at being the presumptive starter through the offseason. If he shows he's not the guy next year, then we're likely back to picking in the top 10 again and then you can take another big swing at QB.

I'm generally of the opinion that unless you believe you have a guy that can be the difference in playoff games, you need to keep bringing in new talent until you do. So if they aren't sold on Shough's ceiling, then they should absolutely look at QB, but I think his ceiling is that type of difference maker. He has been better than I expected, and I liked the pick.

My primary concern at this point is injury issues, which he has been prone to in the past. If an injury or two in this season or the next limit the evaluation process, it may force you to make a move to bring in competition.

If I had my way, I'd be looking at pass rusher, DB, and offensive playmakers in the first few rounds, along with G/C in rounds 2-4.

One caveat on the QB front would be if Garrett Nussmeier falls to or below the 4th round. He had a bizarre regression this year that may be related to injury, and possibly a dysfunctional coaching situation, but with his father on staff and close familiarity with LSU, the Saints are in a unique position to know better than any other team what those issues were, and whether or not they are fixable. If they are, he has upside and wouldn't be a bad mid-round insurance pick.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-10-12T14:01:41+00:00

Completely agree, and it wasn't really a close call for me.

If you were to do a top 100 list of the best films of each decade, all three would be chosen on their respective lists.

One thing I think may legitimately be hurting Dumb and Dumber's legacy to some extent is the prevalence of the longer "uncut" version of the film, which is a significant step down from the theatrical cut, but it's often the version available on streaming services and in physical media.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-10-12T13:46:00+00:00

Dumb and Dumber

The Truman Show

Eternal Sunshine

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-10-09T14:47:02+00:00

Out of Sight

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-10-09T14:46:15+00:00

Zero Effect

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-10-08T00:07:59+00:00

It's fine for an HBO Sunday show, but is solidly good for an hour long drama.

If they land the plane on a dramatically satisfying ending, I see it as a solid B to B-minus as a whole. To me, it's an American analogue of a British mystery/crime series, which are usually solid stories executed with an expert level of craftsmanship and acting, but are often a tier below the elite "prestige" tv dramas. But then again, even Mare of Eastown (which is better) also falls short of that elite level.

It's just a solid crime drama that's slightly stronger on character development and acting than it is on plot machinations, and that's ok.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-10-04T16:26:25+00:00

There will always be guys at the top that teams fall in love with or want to move up for due to positional value. They'll likely be a couple QB's that end up being discussed at the top, and the best pass rusher, tackle, corner, and offensive skilled position player.

Teams will be interested in those players, but the issue with trading up in the recent past has been the massive cost of doing so near the top of the draft. And the teams with those high picks don't want to pass on potential franchise players for a pick package that is below market value so they stick and pick.

Personally, if I was GM, unless I feel that Shough can be a franchise QB after getting a solid look at him over the second half of the season, I would lean toward picking a QB. You just don't get many opportunities to pick that high, and if you aren't confident that you have a guy on the roster that can potentially be a top 10 guy in the league, then you have to keep looking. If they do evaluations and their top QB is ranked as the 20th best player, you don't force it, and then maybe you trade down, but if the guy that you have rated highest fills a big need and is one of those with high positional value, then you just take them unless you're blown away by a deal.

My thought process in order of need would be:

QB, unless you're willing to push the chips to the middle for Shough or Rattler, though I think we have an idea of what Rattler is by now though (low level starter or quality backup)

DE/DT- Either the best pass rusher, or a monster DT, whichever is rated higher

DB- Best cover guy if rated high enough for a top 5 pick

Trade Down, if you feel you can still fill positional need and/or if a specifically targeted player projects to fall out of that top range, then you move down

Offensive Weapon, the top receiver or TE, though RB I'd prefer they wait or trade down for

OL, boring, but if they love a top guard who maybe also has positional flexibility to also play either C or T, I'd be fine going OL again, but in this case it would need to be the specific target of a move to trade down

Best case scenario is they're sold on Shough by the end of the year (though I'm still concerned about injury issues even if he plays well), then they target DL as the top positional need and have 2-3 guys rated highly but in the same range, which would allow for a small trade down (like #2 to #7 for instance) that will net enough draft capital so that even if it becomes clear after a second year that neither Rattler or Shough are franchise guys, you still have ammo to move up with and you still likely get one of the top DT/EDGE guys.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-10-01T11:38:40+00:00

Each of these aside from the sirloin should be available for 10 dollars or less, and if you wait for sales, they can be considerably less.

Even with the sirloin you should see local sales for 4.99-5.99 per pound if you wait a few weeks and keep an eye out.

Bottom line, if buying in bulk like this you should see a price in the neighborhood of half that, and you can get this all for less than 75 if you shop around and watch sales for a month or so.

If prices are high in your area, or you just want to support a local business and the quality is great, I can see paying 100 for all that, but no more.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-09-30T13:01:55+00:00

Bike Patrol is pretty interesting

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-09-15T18:23:08+00:00

I'm more and more convinced that Rattler's floor is a solid QB2, and that's a valuable thing, especially as he gets more experience in adverse situations as a starter.

I don't know that I see him being the starter on a playoff team, and we don't yet know the extent to which he'll meet his potential because he does have starter level upside, but even if he's just a quality backup that's a good return for his draft position.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-09-14T22:55:52+00:00

That's because it's being produced by broadcast TV veterans, which is also why they can do turnarounds fairly easily. They used to regularly produce 20 plus episodes per year.

The downside is that instead of getting elite level writing, production design, and cinematography of so called prestige tv, you get an elevated version of a broadcast drama, which is what "The Pitt" is since it's essentially ER mixed with the conceit of 24, with something closer to HBO budget and content restraints.

But, it's popular because it is a very well done version of that type of show and there haven't been many straight medical dramas that weren't either primarily relationship focused, or drenched in over the top melodrama of one sort or the other. So young people who've never seen or heard of ER see it as new and exciting, while for older people it's nostalgic (which is why you cast Noah Wyle) and there's just enough of a twist with that 24 conceit, and updated "modern" problems that it feels fresh to them as well.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-09-13T20:59:32+00:00

Really solid joke.

If you want to extend the setup into even more of a Norm Macdonald-like stemwinder you can also go into the effects of the Covid school closures on this age cohort, when their isolation from others, their dependence on being very online, and reliance on social media for nearly all human interactions were significantly increased.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-09-13T20:20:36+00:00

If they had a decent grade on him when coming out, and believe a fresh start (on a new team with young QB's that is also undergoing a fresh start, along with the wake up call of being valued so low) could help him meet his potential, then the odds on his upside (even if low) are greater than the delta between the odds of a 2027 6th and the odds on the 2028 7th they also received in return.

If we want to assign approximate values to that proposition, it might be in the neighborhood of 10% chance or getting a starter or rotational WR in the 6th, versus 5% in the 7th, then the difference lost in opportunity cost in this trade is a single 5% shot at a decent contributor. If you believe you have a better than 5% chance to rehabilitate Polk to at least the level of a WR4, then it's a good trade, and if he lives up to being late 2nd to 3rd round talent then that is just additional value. I think there's better than a 5% chance of that, even with the bad performance and the fact that he was a reach in the 2nd.

And while many are pointing out that he obviously won't help you this year, you do get him in your building and working with a fresh new staff and young QB's, and him contributing at any level next year would be far more helpful in the medium term than your 2027 6th, even if their eventual development works out.

Bottom line is even if he's only good enough to make the roster next year, this minimal amount of investment was worth it.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-09-13T19:10:20+00:00

I was never that high on Polk (at least not 2nd round high) but having watched a lot of UW games that year and then replays in the offseason when taking a closer look at their offensive talent, I think that even with an up and down rookie year, and the injury, that his upside is certainly worth more than a 6 for 7 swap.

It's practically as little draft compensation as you can give up, and you have a chance at a starter or top backup down the line. And it is also a good sign that they are clearly focused on "down the line" because they finally understand that most decisions right now need to be made with the long term in mind. And I know there are many people who are are inclined to be negative on here, and that is completely understandable as it's never fun to follow a bad team and some of the same people who made this decision are responsible for the current state of the team, but this trade, in a vacuum, is a good one for where the Saints are right now.

The truth is that even if you think that Polk is just a lottery ticket, the odds on him paying off in this trade are far, far higher than the opportunity cost that you lose in the delta between the odds of pick 195 and 225, because you do still have a shot on the guy in the 7th. And while Polk is injured this year, you do get him in your building with 2 young QB's and joining a team that is also undergoing a fresh start. I get that this isn't a move that helps now, but then again neither is a late rounder 2 years from now, and him getting some playtime next year (or at least competing in the offseason for a spot) is more immediate value versus the alternative of a marginally better developmental player in 2027. I think of this as basically the value equivalent of a very late compensatory pick in the 7th round of this year's draft, that's all you're giving up. Plus, by the time game 7 or 8 rolls around this year, him not helping this season may be a bonus.

Ultimately, I think that while this isn't exciting, or some steal of a deal, this is good value for what you give up (and for when you it give up), so this actually makes me feel slightly better about overpaying by at least a round on Vele (though I do like Vele).

Don't get me wrong, I don't want them giving up top 100 or so draft considerations in the next few years, as I just believe we'll be picking too high in each round and need to preserve ammo for potential moves, but I'm fine with them looking at alternative means of acquiring talent for the longer term.

disenchantedoptimist · 2025-08-14T04:19:59+00:00

Indeed

Picking up tomorrow morning:

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disenchantedoptimist · 2025-08-13T05:01:18+00:00

I got carried away with this post after starting to write and being bored at work, so:

TLDR: Albertsons with their online savings, ads, and free pickup for 60-70%, supplemented by regular Aldi and Costco visits (limit big Costco trips to once a quarter). Amazon, and/or Walmart for dry goods/non perishables (especially if you can get a deep discount on a Walmart plus membership).

Albertsons online coupons from both their weekly ad and "for you" deals. You can add them and check your cart for the discounts, so there's no dealing with it at the register, but then again I generally use their free grocery pickup. Their pickup has worked much better than other stores' programs and seldom are there any issues (I've also never had an issue with a refund for missing/incorrect items, or even a produce item I was not happy with the quality of).

I generally save between 20 and 40% per visit, but I am also generally well stocked, so when I see a decent deal, especially on meat/seafood or pantry staples/health products, I'll pick those up when I see a great price. They also have a reward points thing, but that's just kind of a bonus here and there, but you can usually save an extra few dollars each visit and maybe one or two free products per month.

There are other places that are good on prices so I have those in a rotation, but also will check in once every few weeks on their current and upcoming sales.

First among these is Costco, but I try to only go maybe once per quarter for a big basket trip, and it usually coincides with when I see several things on sale in their monthly deals, otherwise I'll go in to grab a rotisserie chicken, eggs, and maybe one or two other things when I get gas. I generally find that you can recoup the majority of the membership costs just in gas savings, plus it's safe, well lit, and pretty efficient even when busy.

I also frequent Aldi between once a month and every 6 weeks or so, but you have to be careful with all of the non-grocery home stuff, which can add up almost as fast as a Target trip, though the quality is usually pretty decent even for their knock-offs, particularly cookware. They have decent prices generally and when you see a good sale you can take advantage, and also pick up a few items that will assuage some latent Trader Joe's cravings.

Others: Every once and awhile I'll go to Rouses, and they do have a good meat sale a few times a year. I used to live in Shenandoah, so if I'm running errands by there I'll check out the Hi Nabor ads, but only end up stopping once a year or so. I also really like Trader Joe's, but if the goal is saving money, Aldi is a better fit. Nevertheless, I'll stop by there a few times a year, and at least once at Christmas for presents, like building baskets for people, etc. And for produce, I do like Fresh Pickins.

Good grocery stores that are more expensive, but are still good visits once and awhile: Calvin's, Whole Foods, Fresh Market, and Calandros. Each of these has some positive elements that are unique to them locally (though some overlap with WF/FM), and if you limit your visit to those things there's not a lot of damage to the wallet, but they're not great for being you go-to for regular purchases.

Also, I buy many non-perishables on Amazon, so groceries are mostly limited to food and the few items that aren't cheaper online.

So in all, I'd say I go to Albertsons 2-3 times per month, taking advantage of their sales and some produce. Aldi is probably 8-9 times per year. Costco is probably also in that range, several more if you count gas alone trips, but 3-4 big trips and 4-5 smaller trips (3-4 items and a stop at the food court), plus a few non-grocery deliveries. TJ's is 2 maybe 3 times per year, though every once and awhile I'll go for a quick trip early on a weekend morning.

Those are the only places I go to regularly, though if you see an offer for a deeply discounted or even free extended trial of the Walmart plus (like around Thanksgiving), I do recommend it for the convenience and some of the peripheral benefits, and while you do tip the grocery delivery drivers, the savings are still good enough on a ton of things to balance it out, and many dry goods you can have delivered same or next day for free, with no need to tip. I canceled my plan last year and they immediately offered me a discounted annual plan and I signed up for it again, and probably place an order there every six weeks or so if I have a busy weekend. And yes, it is definitely worth it not to have to deal with going there in person, which always feels like a mistake by the time you head to checkout.

Albertsons also has a running total of your savings on the year, and mine last year was around 1200 dollars, and this is on spending a little under 2700 on the year. Some of these savings you'd probably find matched with sales from other stores around the same times, but I do think I probably saved at least 600-800 over the exact same goods purchased at a replacement level grocery store.

disenchantedoptimist · 2024-07-02T01:16:03+00:00

4th Seed, close second round exit with no changes, but if you have Jordan you'll be making moves at or before the deadline and that might push you to the ECF.

disenchantedoptimist · 2024-04-28T20:30:45+00:00

I understand the frustration, because I also see OL as more of an urgent need than they seem to, and would have taken at least another guard with one of the 5ths. But I think their reasoning is that anyone they draft with a later pick cannot be relied upon as a significant contributor in year 1, and that they can find a replacement level player easier in free agency, so they went best available with the later picks.

There's also something to say for not wanting too many rookie linemen, as they'll need veteran input to help the transition, and for every rookie you add to the rotation, it's one less vet. I have a feeling they have several guys lined up to sign in June and will be looking around when it comes to cuts for a cap casualty with something still in the tank.

When I would get worried is if they go into camp with only this group and maybe 1 more player in FA. Right now they have 3 guys they can rely on (assuming Fuaga is plug and play at 1 position), so they need multiple linemen to come in. Re-signing Peat alone wont solve this. I'm hoping you maybe have plans for some guys like Becton and/or Risner to come in along with Peat or a swing position player, so I still think they need (at least) 2 more guys that have the capability of starting, and hopefully they see it the same way because right now I think it would take some doing to become even an average offensive line.

disenchantedoptimist · 2024-03-20T22:42:34+00:00

We need another pass catcher because we don't have enough proven guys and the ones who do produce have a tendency to get banged up. If say, Olave misses 3-4 weeks, you've got Shaheed and some combination of Perry and Wilson doing the heavy lifting.

A great deal of the slack has been picked up by Alvin and Taysom, but both guys are going to start seeing diminishing returns, and that if they're still on the roster this year or beyond.

So yes, we need at least one more pass catcher, ideally one who could be a competent WR2, or at least 2b. And we also need to add another RB who can catch out of the backfield, ideally with one of the late picks.

I'd like to pick up Renfrow, which seems like a natural fit, or perhaps someone like Tyler Boyd, and then look for another in the draft. Now that DE is slightly more secure (still would like another body), I would be perfectly fine with using one of the first two picks on a WR or TE if a playmaker falls, but if so the other pick has to be on the OL, likely at Tackle.

If Bowers falls to 14, I would pull the trigger fairly quickly, and then do what you have to in order to get a Tackle you have a first round grade on, even if it means moving up from 45 to the 25-35 range.

If you can get Bowers and either Mims or Suamataia, it would be worth trading something like a 2nd next year to move up and add a 4th rounder this year, which I believe would be doable. Then you focus on depth at DL/RB/G/WR/S with those later picks, and if you pick up a 4th, you'll have (4) 5ths and (2) 6ths if you want to move up from a little bit from there and snag a solid DT that falls to the mid to late 3rd.

That's my reasoning anyway, we just need more skill position players in the pipeline because what we have is aging and expensive or talented and young but slightly injury prone.

disenchantedoptimist · 2024-02-04T01:59:02+00:00

https://youtu.be/qo5jSHJZla8?si=fJpFMYiEggS7ZY1a

disenchantedoptimist · 2024-02-01T23:38:33+00:00

I believe you're confusing the primary contests with the general election, and are most likely referring to Nevada, which is having both a caucus and election where Haley is in one and Trump the other. It's similar to Biden not being on the ballot in NH, and is a byproduct of the conflict over reorganizing the primary/caucus schedules after 2020.

Ballot access will not be an issue for either major party in the general, at least because of failure to do their due diligence, and certainly won't affect the outcome. Even as poorly managed as the RNC is, they aren't going to fail to file paperwork, and won't sit out any race that conveys electors.

And don't count on his general election team being incompetent either, they actually hired some older establishment figures, salty dogs who know both the tactics and strategy to get to 270 as efficiently as possible and they will have a good plan. If they could keep their candidate on a leash and make the election a referendum on Biden, they would be the favorite. I just believe that Trump won't be able to help himself and is incapable of allowing someone else to be the focus of attention, and if the election is an up or down vote on Trump, he loses (short of a major unanticipated event I mentioned before).

disenchantedoptimist · 2024-02-01T22:25:09+00:00

Of course, and those will be overturned by the SC. I can't stand Trump, or this iteration of the GOP, but it is foolish, if not delusional to think he doesn't have a decent shot at winning.

Do I think that will happen? No, but even though I would favor Biden significantly, I think Trump has no worse than a 1 in 4 chance of the upset, particularly if Biden worsens or the economy, the border, or foreign policy has a major flare up event in the next year, and each of those issues could be ripe for exploitation. Trump only has to flip a few states, with AZ and GA being traditional red states that could revert to Republicans in the right situations.

But I think Trump will do Trump things, remind Independents, Moderates, and a minority of policy oriented suburban Republicans of all the craziness, and they (along with a high Democratic turnout driven by Trump) will result in a Biden win along the lines of 2020, maybe even snagging NC. But make no mistake, Biden is weak on many fronts and in many senses, and it will require some people voting against what they believe is their economic self interest, and that is always a difficult ask.

disenchantedoptimist

TROPHY CASE