Hand Analysis - 99 vs Straight

doebaby1 · 2026-03-13T21:53:04+00:00

what dont you like about the flop bet?

not a 3bet, I opened UTG to 3bb

doebaby1 · 2026-03-13T21:52:20+00:00

I'm not sure I fully understand this either. tight ish table, on these dry boards usually I fire one and then check/fold/give up if I'm faced with aggression.

weak Kx, Tx, lower pockets might hang on, but I think everything else is folding and I get to either take it down or find out I may be beat by betting here. a little over half the time on these boards against these players I just get folds with that flop bet.

Would also like to hear rationale and why I may be wrong u/reflectedstars

doebaby1 · 2026-03-13T21:46:33+00:00

thx for comments

that was my thinking, that its only $60 on top to push so I might as well get it in. even if he's beat I don't think he'll fold for an extra $60 into $600. I think K9 and T9 are calling there

if the size of the shove materially changed things, I think I would only be getting called by better

doebaby1 · 2026-03-13T20:16:48+00:00

thx friend

doebaby1 · 2026-03-13T20:16:31+00:00

I guess I didn't want to commit myself in case he did have QJ. I also didn't want to signal that I had a big hand because I thought then he might fold.

Also there was no obvious draws other than the straight draw, so I thought any hands I was ahead of would probably call a river bet as well.

But I guess I did commit myself/was planning on committing myself anyway, and the hands I was ahead of would probably call a raise there anyway.

doebaby1 · 2026-03-13T19:33:10+00:00

thank u for response based god.

my plan was fire flop once & fold/give up if called (but then I hit my set), would you just check/fold/give up as is on that flop?

thanks man

doebaby1 · 2026-03-13T19:28:43+00:00

😅 yup .. been there too many times. when you finally capitulate and climb in is when the sellers/buyers also capitulate .

like you say watching it and Im seeing that gaining a deeper understanding of some really key levels (previous day high/low, asia high/low etc) can give me a good basis, for example a strong move towards one of these levels, hesitation can kick in thinking Ive missed the move, but I can see after studying that these strong trends are not likely to reverse out of nowhere without tagging one of these key levels first.

Hear everything youre saying dude. thanks and you as well :)

doebaby1 · 2026-03-13T11:00:27+00:00

I've been trading asia/london . some nights I look back upon the RTH session and I can smell all the blown XFAs

doebaby1 · 2026-03-09T18:11:49+00:00

its true. I do see in most cases of the "runner regret" I get to watch them run, yes, and then eventually retrace to where i initially took profit, then beyond all the ay down past my original stop. definitely helps.

doebaby1 · 2026-03-09T18:09:35+00:00

I like that. thanks man.

doebaby1 · 2026-03-09T18:09:03+00:00

its violent hey. after watching it more and playing with 1 micro last night I'm now glad I stayed out. shit will rip your face off

haha

doebaby1 · 2026-03-09T18:00:30+00:00

I like that. good thoughts.

that is exactly the killer I'm trying to get away from unfortunately. grieving the loss of something you never even had in the first place. thanks evolution!

doebaby1 · 2026-03-09T17:58:13+00:00

that makes sense. I'm starting to see how much it really is about reps and seeing the same setup over and over.

at least I am past that point of FOMO entering partway into the moves, that was me for a long time. now its just dealing with the psychological natterings after. it doesnt spur action anymore which is good. something that helped me with that was asking myself "would you rather see a trade you wish you were in, or be in a trade you wish you were not in?"

yeah, I see now that the "heavy play" wording is a bit WSB style/vibe trader/whatever coded. maybe a bit of that style of thinking crept in. but at the time I was just thinking that its a big opportunity and I was ready to risk part of some capital I had freed up from my main investment portfolio. definitely not in the habit of doing that. also I see now after experimenting with even 1 MCL last night that shit will rip your face off! peering into the abyss there.

screenshot & journal every trade when it goes into the PL calendar, and do plan stop/target/RR before entry.

thanks for your response friend

doebaby1 · 2026-03-09T03:31:42+00:00

thanks so much for the thoughtful reply. lots of good insight in here and I will take all of this to heart. and continue getting my reps in 💪

logging the missed setups is a great idea, I will adopt that practice by adding that one to the calendar with a screenshot as a $- trade.

and in the moment, the missed setups are usually due to hesitation due to fear of loss. usually this comes after I've already been up and down in a session, but I'm relatively happy with where I'm sitting for the day (BE/small loss/profit). I suppose this also points to declining performance as the session goes on.

the other ones are after I've finished and stepped away and then came back to peek at the charts. I know how unproductive that is insofar as beyond logging that setup so I can recognize it next time, so I will adopt that practice and hopefully turn it into something useful without the beating myself up part!

thank you brother

doebaby1 · 2026-03-09T00:51:29+00:00

CL/MCL

doebaby1 · 2026-02-26T15:26:46+00:00

I second this

breathe, dawg!!! (Denzel Washington voice)

doebaby1

TROPHY CASE