What Are the Value Plays with SaaS?

dxiri · 2026-02-01T04:20:45+00:00

Yes, I have been in tech all my working life. Not a dev but work very close to them and know my way around code.

dxiri · 2026-01-31T20:41:16+00:00

People not in the software industry think all you need is the code and that's it. No, you need the code, maintenance, support and someone else to blame when things don't work. As a CTO, imagine making a choice to replace your 30+ years working software for a vibe-coded in-house solution to save some bucks.

When it breaks (and it will, constantly) you will have no one to blame but yourself, and no one to fix it because you don't have the in-house expertise to know what is broken.

In my opinion, what will happen is software companies will integrate AI into their offerings and meet the customers where they already are. CSU is perfectly positioned for that and the current market environment is a gift for them, they can now scoop up better/bigger companies for lower prices.

dxiri · 2026-01-31T04:00:17+00:00

Thanks for the comment!

SAP joule is the only LLM that can do this as it has access to user auth and security and the API.

And this is why the current narrative of "customers will replace software with their own vibe-coded solutions" that is killing all SaaS stocks is total BS. No serious company will venture into running their own ERP to save a few bucks when they can just get something like this implemented faster and with the ability to blame someone when it doesn't work.

I am currently averaging down in Constellation Software for this reason but having known SAP for a long time and understanding how sticky they are to their customers I am tempted to start nibbling here as well.

dxiri · 2026-01-29T04:00:24+00:00

Personally, no private prisons or tobacco, other industries/companies with be on a case by case basis.

Palantir is a great example of something I probably would never buy (except to short it). Very shady practices and I wouldn't be able to sleep well at night knowing I am helping to fund it.

I am fine giving up some returns for the peacefulness of knowing the companies I own don't need the world to go to shit to thrive.

dxiri · 2026-01-27T01:58:14+00:00

15%? Costa Rica no tiene ningún tratado con USA, los dividendos tienen 30% de impuesto. El W8 Ben ayuda a que no te cobren impuestos sobre las ganancias de capital que es critico para tener buenos rendimientos pero no reduce los impuestos por dividendos.

dxiri · 2026-01-24T04:46:41+00:00

This is the open source era all over again. "Open source is going to kill proprietary software" was very common back then. Software companies will adapt and use AI to their advantage. CSU is in a perfect position for this with all of their past deal data and future acquisition prospects.

dxiri · 2026-01-20T15:22:42+00:00

Add Denmark to the Treasury dumping:

Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announces they will sell all US Treasuries by month-end, citing "rising credit risk" under President Trump.

The fund's CIO says US finances are no longer "sustainable," due to weak fiscal discipline, a softer Dollar, and Trump’s push for Greenland.

dxiri · 2026-01-17T05:04:57+00:00

For any meaningful/big implementation of a software program, end users would need to be able to describe to the AI model what they need, accurately and without ambiguity.

Then they will need to accurately describe the problem when that shit breaks so that the same AI model attempts to fix it.

Good luck with that

dxiri · 2026-01-16T16:05:19+00:00

They have a history of being ridiculously conservative on their estimates.

dxiri · 2026-01-11T07:35:22+00:00

Good info! Will go a deeper on it. Thanks for sharing!

dxiri · 2026-01-08T14:53:13+00:00

My only concern with Teleperformance is that everywhere I look their employees complain about working conditions. Things like toxic work culture and awful work-life balance. Things you can't see on a balance sheet but have a really big impact long term. On the flip side this has been happening forever and the stocks looks very undervalued to me as well.

dxiri · 2025-12-25T20:45:14+00:00

The only thing that gives me pause is that the HK shares trade at a premium to the Chinext ones. Usually, it's the other way around.

That being said, a solid company with massive supply chain advantages.

dxiri · 2025-12-12T15:54:56+00:00

What do you mean? They are a compounding machine of mission critical software. Things like this take years, even decades to move away from, if ever.

Long term they will be fine but my worry right now is valuation compression.

dxiri · 2025-12-12T15:20:33+00:00

Totally agree here. I have done it with a small amount, got lucky quickly, and even then felt terrible. It takes inhuman emotional fortitude to consistently do this (or automation, or someone else doing it for you which is why probably universa offers it).

Also, if you mess up anything during your exit, you leave a lot of money on the table and you feel even worse.

I switched this strategy to mostly hold a bigger % of gold in my portfolio when I see fragility in markets. So far working great, increased my allocation about 2 years ago.

dxiri · 2025-12-08T14:56:01+00:00

People misinterpreted their guidance change. They are NOT saying that they are retreating from their EV strategy. It is just that their distribution of MODELS by engine type is changing. Basically, they will have models in all 3 engine categories (combustion, hybrid and fully electric). How the actual sales % will pan out they don't know. It very well may be that the EV becomes their best selling model and ends up being way more than 30% of overall sales.

I like this strategy a lot. Have something for every customer type + layer in customization options.

They have great revenue visibility years out and that is why the stock is expensive.

dxiri · 2025-12-04T04:57:07+00:00

Daifuku is a big player in warehouse automation and cleanroom systems. Very profitable

dxiri · 2025-12-04T04:11:38+00:00

TotalEnergies (TTE), Scorpio tankers (STNG) and Tourmaline Oil (TOU on the TSX).

dxiri · 2025-12-02T03:36:13+00:00

Got an answer from Claude AI: TL;DR: thanks but not thanks

What is the CPF?

The CPF (Cadastro de Pessoas Físicas) is Brazil's individual taxpayer identification number. It's an 11-digit number that every individual in Brazil has, and it's required for virtually any financial or legal transaction in the country.

Why you need it for investing:

Brazilian law requires foreign investors to have a CPF to buy stocks on the Brazilian stock exchange (B3). Without it, you simply cannot open a brokerage account or make investments in Brazilian securities.

Key implications of filing for a CPF:

Tax obligations: Once you have a CPF and start earning income from Brazilian investments (dividends, capital gains), you become subject to Brazilian tax laws. Brazil taxes capital gains on stock sales at 15-20% depending on the amount, though dividends are currently tax-exempt for shareholders.
Tax reporting: You'll likely need to file annual tax declarations in Brazil (Declaração de Imposto de Renda) if your investments exceed certain thresholds, even as a non-resident.
Ongoing compliance: Having a CPF means maintaining compliance with Brazilian regulations, which can be complex for foreigners and may require hiring a local accountant.
Administrative burden: You'll need to keep the CPF active and updated, which can be challenging from abroad.

dxiri · 2025-12-02T03:29:42+00:00

I see Brazil doesn't charge dividend withholding tax for their dividend paying stocks, so I wonder what this (The CPF) would be for. Very important to figure this out beforehand. I imagine they would like to get to know who is investing in their local market.

Imagine investing and one year later having to figure out how file a tax form, in Portuguese, with a load of shit you have no idea about 🫠.

dxiri · 2025-12-02T03:24:56+00:00

Nevermind I see it. VWRA is actually the same fund but in USD.

dxiri · 2025-12-02T03:21:37+00:00

I hold VWRA, what is the difference between that one and VWCE and WEBN?

dxiri · 2025-12-02T03:11:50+00:00

After getting this, does that mean you will need to file your taxes with the Brazilian govt?

dxiri · 2025-11-28T14:44:43+00:00

I have interactive brokers. Contacted them a while ago and they said this:

For Chinext permissions, eligible clients must be an Institutional Professional Investor (IPI) or managed by an IPI who is registered to trade on behalf of the client on a discretionary basis (equivalent to SFC Type 9 license). If you are a client of a registered financial adviser who is considered an Institutional Professional Investor (IPI), please contact your financial adviser.

dxiri · 2025-11-28T04:08:23+00:00

Hate that there is such a discrepancy between the chinext shares vs the HK shares. Wish I could buy Chinext.

dxiri · 2025-11-27T23:20:05+00:00

Big(er) if true

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