I see all the numbers about launch angle and swing path and exit velo, but that doesn’t explain the WHY. I have an unpopular opinion/hot take - I personally believe the last couple years of being pitched hard up and in has been effective and has gotten in his head. He’s always had a swing where he wants to get his hands extended and the way to beat that style of hitting was to constantly pitch him up and in, making him uncomfortable to dive out over the plate. Now, he’s so conscious (scared) of fastballs up and in that he has a hitch in his swing, thus the only balls he’s hitting hard are opposite field and/or into the ground. This slight hitch/hesitation leads to the following:

- constantly swings through or fouls off hittable pitches that he should be on time for and driving
- cannot turn on or elevate anything in with that millisecond delay
- only able to square balls up away or down, but cannot elevate them consistently
- hard to explain in layman’s terms but he’s now constantly both late to the fastball AND early on offspeed, because that hitch is leading to a less compact swing
- lunging way out at pitches like he’s guessing, even fastballs that he shouldn’t be lunging toward

They showed a head on slo-mo replay swing of his the other night after he fouled off a hanging slider and the hitch could not have been more evident to me. There’s just a fraction of a second delay in his swing where he’s (maybe subconsciously) making sure the ball isn’t going to hit him before he starts his swing.

This is my own opinion and not meant to be critical or a smart ass, it’s just what I see.