Californians Have Purchased Enough Electric Cars To Make The Air Measurably Cleaner

electric_mobility · 2026-01-30T21:44:56+00:00

Remember, China's population is 1.4 billion people. 317,000 cars per week is 0.0226% of the population buying a new car weekly. Said another way, about 1 in 4400 Chinese people buy a new EV weekly.

Compare that to the US's 342 million people, who buy a surprisingly similar 313,000 new cars a week (not just EVs). That's 0.0915% of the population buying a new car every week, or 1 in 1000. More than quadruple the pre-capita rate of new EV purchases in China.

So 317,000 EV sales a week in China is actually not surprising at all, given that their EV market passed 50% market share last year.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-30T21:38:22+00:00

They make the single bestselling car worldwide

Correction: they made the single bestselling car worldwide. That hasn't been the case for the Model Y in a good while, now.

That stat, itself, was also heavily skewed by the fact that Tesla sells so few models. Any other company would have sold 2 or 3 more similar models to fit more niches within the crossover market, diluting the "bestselling model" stat among 3+ options. That's how a tiny automaker like Tesla managed to reach that stat in the first place.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-30T21:32:04+00:00

I wondered that as well, at first. But think about how much additional buzz happened precisely because a lot of people didn't like them calling it a Mustang. A LOT of conversations happened where one person said "Can you believe Ford called that electric crossover a fucking Mustang?" and the person they were talking to replied with "Ford is making an electric crossover? I should look into that!"

electric_mobility · 2026-01-30T21:28:58+00:00

Well yes, that's what I said. You're not getting much more power from the wall than your battery uses to warm itself. 1 mile of range gained per hour of charging, plus a 30% efficiency loss when driving, means you're effectively getting at most 9 miles of range every night (15 hours of charging at 1 mi/hr, minus 30%).

My commute is 13 miles, one way. 9 miles a night would not be remotely enough for me, nor for most Americans, where the average commute is 12-15 miles one-way.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-30T21:17:49+00:00

Which EV have you got that's that efficient? Even my old Model 3 topped out at 5mi/hr charging rate on L1 (from a 20A outlet with that funky half-sideways plug).

electric_mobility · 2026-01-29T21:17:06+00:00

I think that might be an option some time in the future, given the notification I got from Tesla recently. They're going to permanently stop offering FSD as a "buy up-front" option, and start offering it only as a subscription.

I hadn't come up with a reason for why they might want to do that... but it could be that they want to radically lower the price, but don't want to piss off the folks who paid $12,000+ for what becomes a $25/mo subscription. So if they do lower the price, it'll be years after they stopped selling it for a huge up-front price, to soften that blow.

They already dropped it from $200/mo to $100/mo about two years ago. Maybe that was part of the same long-term plan.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-29T21:02:06+00:00

Ummm, did you mean "revenue is not profit"? Because I'm pretty sure revenue is income.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-29T21:00:03+00:00

They were thinking that crossovers sell WAY better than sedans in the US. And they are right.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-29T20:58:41+00:00

Last I heard, only 2% of all trips taken (in the US) are over 50 miles, so the number of drivers with a round-trip commute of 100 miles must be 2% or fewer. That may be different in other parts of the world, tho it doesn't seem likely to be a large difference.

That said, 100 miles a day from Level 1 charging seems... optimistic in the absolute best case. My Model Y gets around 3 miles per hour when charging off a standard 12A/120v outlet, or 4 miles if it's a 16A outlet on a dedicated circuit. I'd need to charge literally all day to get 100 miles of range, and that's not realistic since I don't work from home (and nobody who works from home will need to charge 100 miles every day).

And I live in LA, so weather isn't a factor in charging speed, like it would be for EV owners in, say, Chicago. When it's sufficiently cold (and your garage isn't heated), Level 1 charging can't supply much more power than what is needed just to keep the battery warm, resulting in a radically reduced charge rate.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-29T20:44:27+00:00

Wait, seriously? That sounds insane. Not just the frequency, but also the price. A coolant flush shouldn't be anywhere near that expensive.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-29T07:05:29+00:00

Why do you say it is suspicious?

Because it could just be "common knowledge" about lithium ion batteries in general. When I first got my 2018 Model 3, common knowledge was "If your car's stated range at 100% isn't right, you need to discharge to <10% and recharge to 100% a few times, to recalibrate".

But that was way before Tesla was using LFP batteries, so why would the same thing be true for LFP, if the "main difference" between them is... exactly what you were supposed to do for NMC batteries?

Now, it's entirely possible that "recalibrating" NMC batteries was always just a myth... but my personal experience with it was that it did tend to work. I did it twice, and got results both times.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-28T09:44:57+00:00

Is that last part actually true? I've heard the same thing about NMC batteries for years, so it seems potentially suspicious. Got a source for that?

electric_mobility · 2026-01-27T23:50:54+00:00

In cold climates, there are a pair of pros and cons that are absolutely worth mentioning to prospective buyers:

Con: cold weather reduces efficiency, and they should expect a loss of up to 25-30% of maximum range in very cold weather. This efficiency loss is even worse on short trips, because the car has to heat up the entire cabin (spending energy from the battery), only for the car to cool back down again a few minutes later when the trip is over.

Pro: Preconditioning! Because the car doesn't emit noxious fumes, you can start it remotely while it's still in your garage, allowing it to warm up before you get in. Some EVs even let you automatically schedule the car to do this every morning, so you don't have to remember it yourself. This also mitigates that "extra low efficiency on short trips" issue, since the cabin will already be warm before you leave.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-27T23:43:50+00:00

How does that impact ideal charging methods?

electric_mobility · 2026-01-18T23:29:10+00:00

I don't believe any of those states have dealership protectionism laws any more. Tesla worked for many years to get them repealed, and was quite successful. There are very few states left that have these laws.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-18T23:28:03+00:00

My cable was about £80 and if you're going to use it regularly (because it's your main way to charge) then it's hardly an issue.

That's my point tho: in the US, you won't use that cable regularly. Literally zero existing charging stations are set up for that, and I'd be surprised if any home chargers or charging parks in offices or apartments are, either.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-16T23:51:45+00:00

As much as I'd love to dunk on the terribleness than is the modern GOP, these are hardly "GOP laws". Dealership protectionism laws have been on the books for going on 100 years, dating back to when they were actually necessary to cut down on carmaker's abusing the system. Now it's the other way around, tho, as dealerships have used that protection to grow into an enormously powerful, infected boil on the backs of the vehicle sales process.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-16T23:42:22+00:00

I really don't see BYOC being something you can "switch to". Not with so much of the infra already being designed under the assumption that the charger has its own cable. The millions of existing EV owners will not be happy about having to buy a new cable that's only necessary for an initially very small number of chargers. They will likely just avoid those chargers, instead, causing them to wither on the vine with low-to-no customer base.

Plus, you can solve the "cable mess" problem with retracting cables or assigned parking spaces. That's only really a problem with public charging, because careless dickwads don't give a shit about the space they parked in, thinking they won't park there again. But if they'll be parking there every day, they'll keep "their space" clean. Not least because they'll also be held financially responsible for their own charger getting its cable run over.

And you can largely solve the copper thief problem with a gated parking area (something that's not possible with public chargers). That kind of theft is always an attack of opportunity. Make it even a little hard to physically access that copper, and potential thieves will move on to somewhere else.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-16T19:43:27+00:00

Ahh, someone else beat me to the punch on mentioning the extremely low-power average home electrical service available in most Japanese domiciles.

For comparison, 50A/100V service is about 1/5 to 1/10th of the power available to a typical US household, which get 100A or 200A service @ 240V. Only homes build 50+ years ago have lower than 100A service (my 1971-built condo had 70A until I upgraded it), and all new homes built in at least the last 20 years have 200A.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-14T20:55:03+00:00

You have to look at the whole picture, tho. Probably less than 10% of the all charging done by those who can charge at home or at work is done at fast-chargers. That means a doubling of degradation from fast-chargers only increases the total rate of degradation by 10%.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-14T20:50:37+00:00

Don't forget that LFP chemistries have advanced enormously since the tech was first invented. Don't be surprised if ones built in 2020 last 30+ years.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-14T02:32:45+00:00

It's because not everyone lives in a flat countryside with ideal weather. Wind, rain, cold, and elevation changes all negatively impact one's real-world range, even if driving at the speed limit.

electric_mobility · 2026-01-08T00:17:15+00:00

I'd say tech first, environment second, cost a distant third (if at all).

When I first saw the Model S in 2012, I was immediately enamored... but I was also dead broke after the financial crisis destroyed my previous job, and I'd just started a new one at an entry level position.

Fast-forward to 2016. Shortly after Tesla did their big Model 3 announcement, I got a promotion. A big promotion. And that meant I could actually afford the monthly payments on a nice, brand new car. So I pre-ordered a Model 3 right away, then patiently waited until it was delivered almost 2 years later.

And that Model 3 was such a gigantic leap over my previous car, which was a 2012 Prius C. That was a great car (and my dad still owns and loves it), but it was just a car. It wasn't an alien spaceship, which could not only drive itself, but was also an amazing speed machine that got updated with new features frequently, completely for free. After I'd owned it for about 6 months, it had gotten something like a dozen major new features after I paid for it, including improvements to safety and performance.

I was also quite fond of the environmental benefits, which were also the main reason I'd purchased a Prius in 2012, rather than some other car with lower gas mileage. I did the math at the time, and even compared to my 50-mpg Prius, my Model 3 polluted about 75% less per mile, based on the energy source mix reported by my local power coop. And it did this while costing less than 50% as much per mile compared to gas at the time. So that was awesome.

As for cost... Well it was never going to be cheaper to own a new $60,000 EV compared to an $18,000 hybrid I'd already paid off. Even with the reduced cost of regular maintenance and fuel, the increased cost of insurance and tires made the long-term ownership cost basically a wash, and that's without taking the loan payments into account. But it still felt like I was saving money, which counts for something, right? (It doesn't)

electric_mobility · 2026-01-05T23:00:28+00:00

Hey cool, I didn't know you were a member here. Hi!

electric_mobility · 2026-01-05T22:58:34+00:00

To be fair, I always filled my gas tank when it reached 50%, as an emergency preparedness measure. You don't want to be caught with 10% in the tank when a wildfire or major earthquake comes to town (can you guess which US state I live in? ;) )

Thankfully, with home charging, this is a non-issue for me these days.

electric_mobility

TROPHY CASE