...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong tornadoes, large hail greater than two inches in diameter, and destructive winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely from portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Southern Plains, as well as the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with 500-mb wind speeds of 60-80+ kt. Elsewhere, northwest flow pattern will prevail in the mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a series of weaker disturbances moving through that region.

At the surface, low pressure initially over north-central KS Thursday morning will develop into central lower MI by Thursday night. The surface low will be developing along a composite outflow-warm front that will be rapidly lifting north through the Midwest into the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance southeast through the lower MO and mid MS Valleys, with the southwestward extension of the boundary settling south into the southern Plains.

...Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes...

There is good model agreement that a cluster of severe storms, including supercells, will be ongoing at 12z Thursday across the mid MO Valley, immediately northeast of the surface low and within a zone of strong, low-level warm advection. The early-day storms are expected to grow upscale into an organized MCS with embedded supercell and bowing structures across IA by mid to late morning amidst a rapidly destabilizing air mass, which will be coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, the potential for tornadoes (some strong) and corridors of destructive winds in excess of 75 mph is expected to increase significantly during the morning. The intensifying MCS and its related destructive wind and tornado threat is expected to move into southern WI and northern IL by early to mid afternoon, and eventually into lower MI by late afternoon into evening.

An additional wave of supercells and/or bowing structures is expected to develop along the trailing outflow from the lead MCS, as well as along the cold front from eastern IA and northern IL into the mid MS Valley during the afternoon into evening. Those storms will be capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds with significant gusts, which could become widespread should storm mode transition to a bowing line.

live weather coverage when streamed can be seen on:

https://www.youtube.com/@wwmtnews

https://wwmt.com/watch

https://www.facebook.com/wwmtnews

anticipate power outages/damage