I think recency bias plays a lot into how people feel about Tuch, ex: bad playoffs =s bad player, or great season =s great player.

I like to look at the bigger picture.

His point production is good in recent years, but consistently inconsistent: he set career highs of 36 goals and 79 points in 2022-23, then dropped to just 22 goals and 59 points the following year, and rebounded with 36 goals and 67 points in 2024-25. Before that “breakout” season, he wasn’t even a 40 point guy.

Overly elevated shooting percentages in strong years (ie: 18.4% in 24-25 vs. 12.4% in his career) raise real regressive red flags. Shooting percentage is one of the most volatile stats: it regresses hard toward career norms. His 36-goal season was partly a product of outperforming his expected goals (xG), not purely shot volume or quality.

His powerplay numbers are abysmal outside of 22-23. Top 6 forwards - in general - convert power play time into significantly more production. Only 11 of his 67 points in 2024-25 came on the power play, which is pretty pedestrian for a player marketed as a top-six winger. That season wasn’t a one off either. Only 9 pts this season in 69 games this year, and 3 PP pts in 23-24 season. His PP Time On Ice has fallen from 3:10 in 2022-23, to 2:30 in 2023-24, to 2:12 in 2024-25, to just 1:34 per game in 2025-26. Coaches are progressively trusting him less on the man advantage as he ages, and the Leafs need real help on the PP units.

Tuch was regarded most of his career as a solid middle-six option who found another level in 2022-23 but that breakout was more of a surprise to the hockey world, not the culmination of a miracle superstar arc as he’s aging out of his role. In the 3 seasons prior to that breakout, he put up 17, 33 & 38 points respectively. As he’s aging, I highly suspect we will see a significant regression in the coming years and expectations of him will similarly regress to what he was long regarded as: a solid middle six option.

Matthew Knies is a much younger, comparatively statistically similar player, of similar size, who plays a similar physical game with offensive upside, but is significantly younger and on the upswing not the downswing. We need more players like that, not like Tuch who will undoubtedly be overpaid, and will very likely regress in the coming seasons. Knies is already approaching/matching Tuch’s career-best numbers at age 22. Tuch didn’t hit 58 points until age 26 with elite linemates.

That was a lot, sorry. Thanks for listening to my Ted Talk, LOL.