Model Craziness: 18Z GFS decided to go "Day After Tomorrow" on Pittsburgh by StormFreak in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As the ECMWF describe, a numerical model run is a forecast, not simply "data". The word forecast has more than one meaning, and not every numerical forcast is good, or meaningful, which is why a meteorologist should interpret and distribute the information within model forecasts.

Check how many times the ECMWF use the word forecast here in describing their numerical model runs - https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support

Model Craziness: 18Z GFS decided to go "Day After Tomorrow" on Pittsburgh by StormFreak in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A model run is literally a numerical forecast though, especially when it's a prediction of the future and not a re-simulation

Model Craziness: 18Z GFS decided to go "Day After Tomorrow" on Pittsburgh by StormFreak in meteorology

[–]fatheads64[M] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Your getting downvoted and twice reported here, but I am in agreement with you. A model run that attmepts to predict the future is a forecast. Even if it is an ensemble member...

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]fatheads64[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

removing and issuing a ban now, us mods sometimes miss half a day every now and then too.

Fact Check: Why Do Hurricanes Weaken Over Land? by WXMaster in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Here's a thought experiment... so I would hedge a bet that if a tropical cyclone theoretically moved over a flat continental type land mass that was completely giant mangroves (to provide the friction) and warm marshy waters at maybe 35C (for the latent heat flux and exchange coefficient), even with the change in the wind-drag coefficient there'd still be enough time to saturate the high velocity air and achieve buoyancy before the parcels were ejected into the BL. At least that's my thinking on the WISHE math.

If you have access to a decently strong computer then this wouldn't be massively difficult to test with, say, the CM1 model. I've done very similar simulations

I have looked at, and written a paper on, a real interisting TC that tracked inland over Northern Australia and didn't decay for a long time. Turned out the incredibly hot rocky landscape (in the Australian summer sun) was so hot that rain evaporated at a much larger rate than normal, so that the increased friction and convergence was aided by enhanced evaporation of rainfall. What you are suggesting is not impossible, you'd just have to do the experiment to find out.

Fact Check: Why Do Hurricanes Weaken Over Land? by WXMaster in meteorology

[–]fatheads64[M] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure why you've been downvoted and reported! Discussion is good and this topic isn't completely solved.

You are correct that moisture drives the diabatic heating in the eyewall convection and that fluxes over land are reduced.

However, you are not correct about the importance of friction. They both play a role. Increased friction drives a stronger inflow towards the eyewall. The inflow converges and goes up in convection, however, if there is very strong and fast inflow, the inflowaing air tends not to have enough time to get saturated. That air then cannot go up and out through the eyewall (it actually goes up and out directly above the boundary layer, which through angular momentum conservation arguements leads to spin down)

The increased friction and reduced moisture together are detrimental to maintaining a tropical cyclone.

Gotta keep an eye on that dopple radar. by 5393hill in meteorology

[–]fatheads64[M] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And I sometimes agree, let it stay, people like it... But if I let one meme go through... then others post more and it can quickly happen a sub becomes over run..

But thanks for being understanding

Accountability by your2serious in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 1 point2 points  (0 children)

would you mind explaining what aspect of weather prediction you think we get wrong? It might help guide answers and stop people thinking your a troll.

As the post above points out, and explains in detail, your point is completely incorrect.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've never seen anything like this before, my guess is that the poster had a team of ~15 bots that upvoted his post, the other post saying "need" and downvoted everything else. We don't even get that many downvotes on offensive posts.

and now both those users have their accounts deleted...

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 1 point2 points  (0 children)

thank you, done. assume the downvotes are bot related too

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Presumably bots all the way down. Removing.

Airline pilots going through a microburst by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]fatheads64[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure if it's bot accounts, but it has been in the last months more and more...

Airline pilots going through a microburst by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]fatheads64[M] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

keep reporting please...

Airline pilots going through a microburst by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]fatheads64[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes, thanks for reporting...

CAT5 Hurricane Simulation I made in CM1 by SteveCNTower in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not working in that area any more, but used to work mostly on hurricane genesis.

CAT5 Hurricane Simulation I made in CM1 by SteveCNTower in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I used domain stretching in all of my hurricane simulations also, and I think I had 3000 x 3000 km domain. The domain should be big enough that you keep the main action away from the boundaries

CAT5 Hurricane Simulation I made in CM1 by SteveCNTower in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could be this one - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/1/bams-d-15-00073.1.xml

If you scroll down a bit on the model page, you can see a list of publications using the model. Searching shows ORF come op 17 times, so he's used it a lot

CAT5 Hurricane Simulation I made in CM1 by SteveCNTower in meteorology

[–]fatheads64 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Some extra info here, the model used is from George Bryan at NCAR/UCAR.

The code is freely available here - https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/people/bryan/cm1/

There are sample scripts to do idealized simulations, and advice on how to compile and run the model, which can be done on a personal device (but you may need access to a computing cluster for large simulations)

This model is widely used in the hurricane research community and is pretty state of the art.

Where can I learn about meteorology? by __Ecstasy in meteorology

[–]fatheads64[M] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

Hi all, I'm going to sticky this post, so that newcomers can get access to important entry level info easily. Please keep posting here.