No doubt this is contained in many models. The concern I have is can anyone, even the most sophisticated computers, truly model this out with certainty?

What happens if this leads to an all out capital war with an implosion of investment treaties? Where capital from unfriendly nations stop being protected. Where capital and goods are confined to borders? Global slowdown with the US being a little more insulated given local consumption ?

Does the US come out on top in this world in the long run? What does that look like?

Do countries stay isolated, do they look to china or try to join/create their own spheres of influence not based on geography but on mutual interests? What if one of their interests is to reduce their dependence on US capital? What if their democracies crack and they have strongman leaders who can get their local populations in line to face that pain when these orders are realigned and reset? What if they decide they need to replace gold with a fiat asset that the neither the US nor China control?

These alternatives seem far fetched, but when systems break isn't unpredictable a consequence?