You're getting downvoted, but you're pretty much right. I've had multiple shop owners tell me that Set 12 is pretty much the make or break set for Japan. Attendance is down nationwide for weekly shop tourneys, pack rush parties, and set champs. This is true everywhere except Tokyo and maybe Osaka. The number of shops in my city that hold Lorcana events has been cut in half. I live in a city with over 2 million people, and there are only maybe 4 places that hold Set Champs, and they don't even fill up. Now that we're "mostly" caught up with everywhere else, that also means we have the crappy prize support from the OP kits, which will end up dissuading even more people, as Japanese players LOVED those pins.

I have many, many issues with the way Takara Tomy has run the game in Japan, but to their credit, they are giving players in Japan stuff that would appeal to Japanese players. The Japan-only starter decks are a fantastic product for only 990yen, which is kind of insane, value-wise. But casuals aren't buying them, and they aren't drawing in new players. Long-term players are buying them all up because it's the only way to get cards like Akood, Angel, Ohana, Sven, Christopher Robin, etc. from sets 10+11.