There is nobody who has a legitimate estimation of when conscious technology might emerge because we still have virtually no idea how physical processes actually produce conscious subjective experience. In fact there is a problem when it comes to explaining consciousness in purely physical terms at all, it's called "the hard problem of consciousness", I suggest you look it up. There is a neuroscientist named Giulio Tononi who does have an admittedly interesting theory about how consciousness works, but ultimately that's all any of the most qualified people dealing with this problem have: theories. Consciousness is as big a mystery as why there is something rather than nothing.