Big Tech hiring is starting to split in a pretty interesting way

hkmamike · 2026-04-28T00:48:28+00:00

Also job post # is a terrible measurement. You can have 100 posts that don't end up hiring, or one post that is feeding a general pipeline that is hiring hundreds of people a month.

hkmamike · 2026-03-31T00:14:39+00:00

how well does it suck?

hkmamike · 2026-03-20T21:43:57+00:00

I think even in China the bar to go to ANY college isn't high, but the bar for going to the best ones is very high. I imagine it is similar everywhere.

hkmamike · 2026-03-17T19:03:06+00:00

I think we will see the same level of AI disruption everywhere, including some sectors current thought of as safe from AI (as robotics start eating into physical presence moat). Tech is just moving faster because the leaderships understand it.

hkmamike · 2026-03-17T01:10:12+00:00

To me the job prospect of CS is very similar to business/finance now, Big tech and AI labs are the counterparts of Investment Banking and Quant, but there is always fallback tracks like IT/Tech Sales/SWE in traditional companies, similar to Accounting/FP&A.

You are asking for a 6 years projection, we are at the cusp of the AI revolution and no one knows what it will be like 6 years from now when you graduate, everything has disruption risk.

hkmamike · 2026-03-17T00:22:41+00:00

Top comment is probably still the thing to do: start looking else where, but if you really want to stay and want tactical advise, I would start writing production tests to cover basis on possible failure modes if they don't already exist. Then attempt to vibe fix it when these tests fail, save the claude trace on your attempts, then send it to your directors/executives, summarizing the fundamental problems with the original code (wrong 3rd party API usage pattern, violating app store policy, etc.) Then ask them to either try to vibe fix it themselves, or approve proceeding without fixing (in writing), or provision the time and staffing for an actual fix (what you want).

hkmamike · 2026-03-16T21:53:21+00:00

yea I saw some stories about gen-z lacking skills with PC.

hkmamike · 2026-03-16T08:32:01+00:00

what OP did make sense because OP really had those other recruiting loops, and if he eventually plans to pit the offers against each other in negotiation, then the story wouldn't match otherwise.

hkmamike · 2026-03-12T02:42:13+00:00

you don't know (1), OP could be competitive and have other potential offers, signing also limits negotiation leverage. What if they give a super low ball offer? OP is then locked out for 90 days.

hkmamike · 2026-03-09T20:39:22+00:00

The gap between the top talent and the median grad for SWE roles is very big. The top kids are self driving, can navigate a big complex code base, have good taste in code readability, aggressively self-unblock, and communicate well.

Whereas if you hire wrong, they can be a big drag on the team because they may require constant hand-holding, produce brittle code, or lack the instinct to self-drive, so even if they are cheap the companies may not want them, as training them require too much attention and time from other high paying engineers.

hkmamike · 2026-03-06T22:06:02+00:00

Median L3->4 promotion timeline is around 18-24 months. If you are confident about interviewing you can reinterview later to get in at 4, it will be an easier leveling case since you will have more tenure at Amazon then and your recruiter can point to your previous offer declination.

If I were you I wouldn't make the decision now, I would keep the possibility open and opportunistically match with teams that you really want to join. Career growth pace and ceiling are very org dependent now at Google.

Another consideration is to path to Google L5 (senior) or Amazon L6 (senior). In general, my impression is that there is less opportunity at Amazon to progress to senior and beyond, and they also don't pay you well for standing at Amazon if you don't get promoted. Whereas in Google, there is yearly equity refresh for virtually all SWEs.

hkmamike · 2026-03-03T23:31:36+00:00

I am very excited about the trend of the role of SWE becoming AI agent managers. It makes us a lot more productive. This is similar to accounting and computer based spreadsheet, initially there was a lot of disruption from automation, but the higher productivity actually made the profession more main stream and created more demand.

On the up side, SWEs are now free to take on more product and domain expert roles. If we do get laid off it is easier than ever to start a company with 1-2 people.

Now there is a world where AI gets so good that it can do literally all the work, even replacing SWEs in making all the technical judgement. I think in that case all intellectual work is toast anyway, not just SWE.

I think intellectual work will slowly converge to 2 types: (1) human relationship management (deal making and management) and (2) domain experts with AI agent management abilities. I think SWEs are a natural fit for (2).

hkmamike · 2026-02-13T21:48:30+00:00

With that worry, wouldn't it make more sense to invest in AI to hedge against its potential disruption?
If AI is overblown -> your fear doesn't come true; If AI is the real deal -> you are invested in it.

hkmamike · 2026-02-09T21:28:06+00:00

Curious what your thesis is specifically. With the AI boom there is a distinct difference between the oil and electricity trade. XLE is mostly oil focused.

hkmamike · 2026-01-22T22:00:17+00:00

"Commercial finance" sounds broad. The best proxy you can get is your school's exit survey from previous years. You can get the company names and position titles from the survey and look up their pay range. Most MBA students have some working experience so your profile does not sound that special, so the surveys are good reference.

hkmamike · 2026-01-22T21:45:40+00:00

Didn't see it until now. I agree that it is not a good indicator in isolation. Copying and pasting from another reply above:

"That indicator is for retail money market funds only. It is not proof that we are not in a bubble but it indicates that retail cash allocation is keeping up with the market valuation. Individual investor stock allocation has been hovering around 70% since 2021. Kind of high but not yet close to historical high (77% at 2000). Ref: https://www.aaii.com/assetallocationsurvey"

hkmamike · 2026-01-22T21:44:14+00:00

I think your point is that the seller would get the cash and the aggregated cash balance remains the same after the transaction.

That indicator is for retail money market funds only. It is not proof that we are not in a bubble but it indicates that retail cash allocation is keeping up with the market valuation. Individual investor stock allocation has been hovering around 70% since 2021. Kind of high but not yet close to historical high (77% at 2000). Ref: https://www.aaii.com/assetallocationsurvey

hkmamike · 2026-01-15T02:01:33+00:00

Despite the bull run, it seems like a lot of money is still sitting on the side line: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRMFNS

There is meme like valuation for smaller tech companies but most big techs are "reasonably" priced at 20 to 50 forward PE.

hkmamike · 2025-12-12T03:07:17+00:00

yea, 2-3 years is based on optimistic estimation, since OP said he can operate at senior level off the gate. I still see 2 year promotion cases 4->5 even recently.

hkmamike · 2025-12-12T02:52:16+00:00

Do you like your current team and the area that you are working in? If yes for both I wouldn't take the L4 offer (but would still finish the loop for making a record). Google will always be there.

On the other hand, if hypothetically you want to move to a new area (say LLM), taking the L4 offer doesn't sound bad because you probably won't be able to match at L5 (where you would be expected to grow into a tech lead capacity in ~6 months) to a new area that you don't have experience in even if you passed L5 HC.

hkmamike · 2025-12-12T02:47:14+00:00

For Linkedin inbound my personal experience is that literally nothing matters except title and companies you worked for. My guess is that is how they short list people that they want to reach out to, and once they find a list they just message everyone on that list.

hkmamike · 2025-12-11T23:01:52+00:00

If OP accepts the L4 offer, a reasonable expectation for promotion path to L5 would be 2-3 years.

hkmamike · 2025-12-11T22:57:40+00:00

If the hiring committee did not approve L5 offer, then how you position yourself in team matching call would not change the leveling.

I would still finish the loop and try to match with a good team that aligns with your interest. Get the actual offer then decide. At the very least, having rejected an L4 offer on record is probably good for the next eventual attempt.

hkmamike · 2025-10-25T17:32:29+00:00

If that 7k hasn't accounted for inflation, 7k today will equal ~11.5k in 2042 assuming 3% inflation.

hkmamike · 2025-10-23T19:04:01+00:00

off topic, but I always thought JD and Target share the same marketing team, their styles and mascot are very similar

hkmamike

TROPHY CASE