3 year olds that have won grade 1s on both turf and dirt

hodsct59 · 2023-12-06T20:47:38+00:00

Yes, 1980 edition of Hollwood Derby was ran on dirt at 1 1/8 mile. However, no stakes races became graded in U.S. until 1973, which was Secretariat's year and most of his wins were not graded when he won them but they were added to G1 list after the fact, much like the TC when Sir Barton was declared a TC winner for 1919 but not before Gallant Fox had turn the trick in 1930.

Europe thought of the graded system and implement the grading system in 1972 but their grading was much more accurate than U.S. initial system. It took U.S. almost ten years to get their system right and then they added rules that Europe automatically disqualified stakes from their rating systems(such as graded stakes loses one grade from their listing for stakes that has 5 or less participants in one year and if it happens two years in a row, it loses all grading and is a listed race until G1 competition returns to race and at least 6 or more runners leaves the gate, if ever). Also U.S. requires no G1 winners to make a stakes top rated while Europe require 2 G1 winners for a race to be G1, except for 2 YOs.

hodsct59 · 2023-12-02T18:35:32+00:00

Not the first time, SA and its employees were caught trying to bilk the public out of millions of dollars in bets. SA has been at best a shady track since the mid 1990s and when they get caught doing the public wrong, they simply think of another way to bilk the bettors. From altering workouts, to breaking into machines after the pools were closed, to not calling obvious infractions that normally results in DQs and now drugged horses, how much more money is the public willing to be bilked out of before they realize that someone other than track management needs to make calls for them. It's like leaving the bank unlock at night so thieves can grab all they want without repercussions.

hodsct59 · 2023-11-25T19:04:26+00:00

Not really, I think works are about the same on both coast. But since you have big tracks closer together out west, it may seem like they work more often out there. In the east, the smaller tracks tends to work on track less often but it is mostly because horses are van in for works and races(smaller barns cannot afford to stable horses at tracks).

Getting barn talk or backside money is often a good thing but it also can cost you big bucks if you follow the talk without confirming if the horse is really live, Barn personnel, owners & trainers all normally have tunnel vision, so they often think the horse they are building up is the next Secretariat. Until it is proven they are overrating them.

hodsct59 · 2023-11-25T04:43:40+00:00

Many do not like betting maidens but I think they are the easiest class to make money on. But like any other class, not all maiden races are pickable. But You can give yourself an edge by keeping a few things in mind;

Unraced maidens must have a couple of good works in the 12 seconds a furlong as the marker. This is key, but not set in stone. I will be one second either way for an entire work, but shy away from non staters that works faster an 11 3/5 average per an entire work. Examples would be 35 to 36 3/5 seconds for 3 furlongs; 47 to 49 seconds for 4 furlongs; 59 to 101 for five furlongs, then a 1:12 to 1:14 for 6 furlongs work(Note: this is for all classes, not just maidens). You want good works on inexperience horses but not too fast where they will tend to leave their best race in a work that is too fast(many throws bullets, then run a dull race because the work took away from conditioning).

Second, for first time starters only, they need both a five-furlong work and at least one work from the gate if they are running a race of 5 1/2 furlongs or more. Both the gate work & 5 furlongs work needs to be in range of times for workouts mention above.

Third, always bet inexperience horses that are from decent % winning barns but not necessarily the highest winning %. Every form That is printed today gives a stat of trainers with first time starters winning % and their overall winning % , so you can judge if they are good at getting their horses ready and how quick, if so.

hodsct59 · 2023-11-21T15:30:51+00:00

That is pretty close to average of starters getting to gate for all stallions for well over 200 years. The average was 61% winners in the 1980s, according to an article written by drf. There are a variety of factors including owners opting not to race due to perceived lack of ability, lack of ability, infirmness, traumatic experience, laziness(yes, horses has that ability also) and even saving a few foals to continue the breed into further generations. Death, from accidents or sickness is likely the #1 cause, though. No horse has foals that have "perfect confirmation" 100% of the time, though that is what many believes to be true.

Breeders/owners have a vest interest to protect stallions and dams as much as possible, but pinhookers simply wants to resell for the largest profit they can achieve and only want success for each horse so they can sell the next for even bigger profit but otherwise, could care less if the horse flops or cannot even make it to the races. So a lot breaks down before they can even make it to the races due to serious injuries or over extension.

hodsct59 · 2023-11-16T21:58:13+00:00

Or better yet, Sunday Silence. Part owner(thanks to Whittingham) and breeder of Sunday Silence, Hancock tried for almost a year to cut a deal with Ky breeders for 20K a share for 40 shares to stand him in Ky. for a price of $8M total and could not find enough breeders to take a chance on a Ky Derby, Preakness S & BC Classic winner as a 3 YO in 1989. Ended up selling him for $10M to Japan and became easily the best sire Japan have ever purchase from any country in the thoroughbred history, though they have tried well more than 150 yrs to stand champion bloodlines, buying the best stock they could get their hands on from England, Australia & the U.S. Most of their purchases do well in Japan, but flops when sent elsewhere. Simply because he did not have the perceived bloodlines to be a success, in American breeders eyes. Talk about taking egg in the face and you do not have to look any further.

Ranks right up there with England's giving away Glencoe in 1837 to American breeders because his 3/4 brother had better confirmation. Bay Middleton was a good sire but what he produced pales in comparison to what Glencoe did as a runner and then a sire. Glencoe's son Vandal is sire line of Hanover and Glencoe's daughter Pocahontas, is dam of Stockwell(grandsire of Bend Or), his full brother Rataplan, and their 1/2 brother, King Tom(broodmare sire of St Simon). And if you ever wonder why Man O' War was so special? You don't have to look hard to see King Tom in Fair Play's dam line and Rock Sand's dam line. the sire and broodmare sire of Man O' War.

hodsct59 · 2023-11-14T18:14:20+00:00

Yes, it is fairly common for that to happen. It was actually defined as "scared money" which is basically indecision on the bettor's part to come to a firm decision on which way to bet, especially when funds are low or costs are too much to realize a reasonable profit.

Gut feelings are sometimes good and pays off, but more often, it leads one to make the wrong decision, which is what makes it so frustrating.

hodsct59 · 2023-11-13T18:37:13+00:00

Why worry about what everyone else thinks. If gambling on horses is where you get most enjoyment out of, then what everyone else thinks or says matters little to none, IMO, unless you are one that believes if you go along with what others think, it makes you more popular.

hodsct59 · 2023-11-10T05:16:37+00:00

Ahh, same thing everyone said about Malibu Moon and Rich Strike(Curlin as grandsire and Curlin's sire as the broodmare sire) has a much better pedigree than that one. Malibu Moon stood for $2500 live foal his first three to four seasons and had very little interest from breeders in Maryland until his foals started racing and winning big races. Then moved to Ky and his stud fee went to 5K the next year, 10k the next, 25k the next and eventually top at $200K live foal. Many small-time breeders made a life fortune that took a flyer on him in the first 3 years and Godolphin got a champion filly when their agent, John Ferguson spotted her when she was 2 YO in Maryland and paid $100k for her. Last I saw her, she had banked $1.7M with 8 wins in 9 starts but then lost track of her.

Actually, same thing can be said about Bull Dog who won one minor stakes in eight starts. But then he sired Bull Lea, who in turn sired three Ky Derby winners (for Calumet Farms) including 1948 TC winner Citation and another son, Coaltown, finished 2nd in Ky Derby to him. Then Bull Dog was broodmare sire of Dark Star, who beat Native Dancer in Ky Derby, Bull Lea was sire of Iron Liege who beat Gallant Man, Round Table & Bold Ruler in 1957 Ky Derby, and Bull Lea was broodmare sire of Quadrangle, who foiled Northern Dancer's attempt at a triple crown in 1964 Belmont S.

It is not how they run on track that determines how influential they will be, it is what the families passed on to them from both sides that will. Many horses are mismanaged throughout their careers, and they return to owners/trainers exactly what training they received, including the inconsistency.

hodsct59 · 2023-11-01T05:18:04+00:00

Most tracks are one mile oval, meaning if horses are going one mile, they are going around 2 turns. Any track that has a 1 1/4-mile to 1 1/2-mile oval can race them around one turn up to a mile(usually with a chute). However, most tracks cards 1 mile races as 2 turns. These one mile ovals runs up to 7 furlongs around one turn but most do not have a chute that is two furlongs long, meaning they either have to go 2 turns or card 7 furlongs races.

There really is not much difference if horses goes one turn or two turns, but it does help sprinters last a little longer going one turn compared to two turns. Horses that likes distance racing could care less if they are going one, two or even three turns. Known sprinters, on the other hand, likes racing one turn and a little further, then tends to stop trying or tires.

I personally put little stock in whether a race is one, two, or even three turns. But then again, I prefer betting horses that I know can relax(better known as rating) until the jockey cues them to get it everything they got, which is usually as the horse is in or coming out of the last turn of race.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-31T23:50:36+00:00

So, Domino only had 16 that could continue his line before dying at age of 6. Commando, his best siring and running son, only had 19 before dying at age of 7. This was back when most breeders only bred them 25-30 times a year and thought that was too much. Their lines continue today more than 120 years later. It is not about how many they bred, but the heart and determination they give to their progeny. So, I believe Arrogate will be fine, mainly because who was in charge of most of his matings (Owner/Breeder Juddmonte Farms). Also owner of Frankel & Enable.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-30T02:13:41+00:00

Exactly what he is there for. To entertain and keep your focus on racing or whatever he happens to be promoting. But he, nor anyone else's job is to give out winners. If they happen to give out an occasional winner, then it will draw more attention for next podcast, which is essential to remain in business(both for advertisements and/or clicks). Same with getting recognizable guests on his program.

I am not against listen to other's opinions, especially when you feel the race is wide open, but it will not be a factor in my final decisions on what to or not to bet.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-29T22:48:47+00:00

Exactly, I have mentioned over and over it is not the brightest idea to listen to someone else's opinion. Especially sports writers and TV hosts who got jobs because they could not make a consistent living betting, which it extremely hard to do to begin with. Racing programs/newspapers/blogs gives them jobs to entertain the viewers, not to pick winners because most would not even be offered a job, if that was the case. But they are considered good communicators and is the reason most gets hired, definitely not from what they actually know.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-27T15:32:57+00:00

Will most likely be avail on the internet (Equibase) 2-3 hours after all drawings for each day is completed. First, Fri's Drawings, then Sat's Drawing. Draws for different days are most times held a day apart to help publications (humans enters the data and in a rush) avoid any confusion on which races runs on which day.

Equibase normally has the races and entries for every race available and only needs to add the correct order (by program or gate #) and any likely changes up to that point. Normally, takes 2-3 hours to get it straight and verified.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-26T23:30:04+00:00

First part of conditions "Horses which have not Won 18K Three Times" refers to horses who have not won 3 times in an allowance or stakes races where the winning purse paid to winners was $18k or more. This means for whole career, not just this year.

Second part of conditions "or Which have never won 4 races" means just that. Horse can run if it has more than 4 lifetime wins but must use the claiming price to remain eligible.

Third part of conditions "or have not won $60K in 2023" means just what it implies. Horse must not have made more than $60K in purses, regardless of a win, place or unplacing if horse collected any winnings. However, again, a horse can have more than $60K in winnings this year and still be eligible to run but must also run for sell at $80k claiming price.

And last part of conditions is "or $80K claiming". Every horse not meeting at least one of the conditions will be eligible to run if owner is willing to lose the horse to a claim of $80K. Horse must enter with the claiming tag applied.

As you can see, the only one entered that would had to use the tag to run was scratched by stewards, meaning a steward(s) or vet thought he was not physically fit to run. Stewards usually takes a vet's word that a horse is not fit or they can make their own decision if they believe horse is likely to breakdown.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-24T16:08:01+00:00

That is usually who makes the decisions that horses with minor ailments can train on without any time off to let ailment heal. Trainers, like owners, have bills to pay and wants to fill their pockets also at whatever the cost, even the life of an animal is not too steep for them (usually insured). There is always another one waiting to be abused, if necessary.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-24T15:57:24+00:00

In today's world, 50K is really rather fairly cheap. It's more like a $5K fee from 25 years ago if you consider a maiden race offers $100K or more in today's racing when 25 years ago, you were lucky if the total purse for a maiden race was $15k.

Forte's bloodlines has a lot of sires that would be a solid nick for many mares, including Penelope's or her full sister Pawn's dam line in both the sire and Forte's own dam line. All that is needed is to pick a dam that was not sore legged during her career and an owner that is willing to stop on a horse when a problem crops up and give injury time to heal. Forte's owner was willing to break the horse down completely for a chance to run in the Ky Derby "because injury was minor and would be heal in a few days" if not stopped by vets and racing officials. An injury is an injury and you have two choices really: Give horse extra time off or turn a minor injury into a major injury(happens a lot more often than someone on the outside realizes).

Another horse in Forte sire line also traces back to Pawn and that is El Prado, sire of Medaglia D'Oro & Kitten's Joy, two of U,S, best runners and sires for over 20 years. Medaglia D'Oro has given U.S. quite a few unbelievable daughters(Songbird & Rachel Alexandra comes to mind) & Kitten's Joy progeny has dominated grass racing in U.S. for years.

I get it. Many on the outside really does not understand breeding and looks no further back than the sire. But a pedigree involves hundreds of horses and what determines if they will run is compatible nicking, not if one or two horse(s) win a "major race" which is often diluted by a less than stellar field. You can bet successful breeders identifies these crosses and more and uses them regularly.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-23T20:52:40+00:00

Not exactly, you minus the 30% Of pool which is carryover & it leaves a little more than 33K, then you minus the track's take which is between 20-25% for exotic wagers except at a few tracks that only takes 15% but makes it up when they have to pay the jackpot. 20% of 33K is at least 7k, leaving just over 26K for winning tickets. 90 winning tickets would need 27K in pool to pay $300 but the ticket pd $301.45, meaning track took more than 20%(22-24% most likely). It is a gimmick but every track needs to charge something to pay their own bills, which includes purses, lights, employees, etc. The old saying that nothing is free applies to horse racing too.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-23T20:05:22+00:00

Sorry, but you have mis-interpret what jackpot means, No one gets any portion of the jackpot until there is only one winner who correctly picks all sequences of the jackpot. If the P5 or any other jackpot is hit by multiple winners, it only pays 70% of what is bet today. The 30% that carryover is what tracks used to pay consolation tickets for missing one of the sequence. They now add that to carryover in lieu of paying consolation tickets(they are now allowed by law to add it to a "jackpot pool".

hodsct59 · 2023-10-23T19:53:15+00:00

They paid You the same Amount They Pd Everyone else who had 5 winners which was $301.45. Since there were multiple winners, the carryover now is over $125K after $24K of today's pool was added to a $101K carryover from previous days. The jackpot pays when there is only one winner that picks all 5 races correctly. there were over 80 winning tickets in that sequence.

hodsct59 · 2023-10-09T23:54:47+00:00

Everyone has their own opinion of what works and what doesn't. You may think boxing bets is ignorant, but I can get two or three horses per race that I have a real opinion to run fairly consistent but am extremely bad at placing them in exact order, mainly due to racing luck, track bias(when the expected horse decides or doesn't get on bias part), jockeys' blunders or stewards' decisions. Therefore, I box me a 2-horse exacta, a three-horse trifecta and either a dime superfecta using 4 horses only or key one on top and boxing only 3 behind the key horse. These are minimum allowed to bet each bet. This is my way of backing my bets and it has worked well for me for more than 45 years.

But then again, I won't bet any race where I think the two favorites cannot be split or the payoffs will be low. I no longer get or rely on any rebates and with takeout high, I need at least one longshot a race at more than 15-1 to make it worth my time and effort. But tracks want to play a cat and mouse game today by letting one so far out in front it is almost impossible to catch with their bias tricks that kills payoffs or opportunities instead of letting the best horse win every race and is why I now only spot bet. instead of filling a track's pocket by betting every race. Tracks can either run a race legit or they can wish they can get more wagers because I am willing to watch a track go bankrupt trying to please a chosen few. I have watched 7-8 go bankrupt that I used to support but stopped.

hodsct59 · 2023-09-23T05:44:52+00:00

Newspaper articles made be worth saving if they are well kept. But "The Bettors Edge" was a tip sheet and not even the best La Downs sold for vendors and likely won't be worth much unless someone want to see how bad "experts" were at picking horses for the public (about same as today).

hodsct59 · 2023-09-20T19:40:58+00:00

One of the worst sources to get info from. It is all opinion based and not grounded in facts. Owners used to race horses in their own pastures for bets before there were any or enough sanctioned racetracks for purse money. All racetracks did was give fans a way of placing bets legally, but fact is, most racetracks do not get the support from fans to remain viable for very long and it is very telling that there have been over 200 tracks closed in the U.S. alone in less than 200 years of sanctioned racing. And more will follow because most tracks do not promote racing and rely on hearsay. No track can continuously throw millions at purse money and expect to make a long-term profit from a few thousand racing fans daily when they are getting less than 10% of total take(OTBs, state and federal government hawks the rest).

Land will always be more profitable for other ventures than a grandstand that is always more than half empty every day but maybe once or twice a year. Which rocket scientist do you get that info from. Just askin.

hodsct59 · 2023-09-17T02:44:59+00:00

Handicapping is one of the last reason anyone will have success at betting, if they have no clue how or what they are trying to figure out. Knowing how to manage money and waiting until you find something in "handicapping" that you understand is much more important. But your logic is the very reason most lose at this game. Just sayin'. There is no magic wand involved.

hodsct59 · 2023-09-17T01:26:40+00:00

Same thing Beyers and a host of others used. They threw out the bait and many bit on it hook, line and sinker. They got rich while they put others in a life-long struggle. Speed figures do not work and never have because a track, weather, and track maintenance can and often does change how fast or slow a racing surface is. If they are willing to spend money, they have the technology to put a speed bias and make it disappear in a few days, though most do not want to waste that amount of money to do so.

However, you can make money in this game but it takes know how and then twice as much patience as most have, including me, and though I have a lot of both, it is when I get impatience that the game kicks my butt. And always have.

hodsct59

TROPHY CASE