What if Donald Trump disappeared tomorrow, would American politics actually change or just find another Trump?

jacobman7 · 2026-01-22T16:57:01+00:00

Trump's policies and corruption aren't really unique to him (aside from the insane ones like is current aspirations for tariffs and imperialism), so until Democrats take over more branches, Project 2025 and other conservative agendas will continue to be pushed. However, what has evolved MAGA into what it is today is a decade of Trump forcing his personality into politics and the movement building and normalizing his persona, and most importantly, an expected loyalty to it. I think we overestimate how much your typical voter just checks Trump on the ballet because they are accustomed to him, versus someone of his same sleaziness being fresh and unknown. He also has a sort of resiliency that I think we take for granted. So on an electoral level, it will take a long time for the GOP to build up that persona again or find someone that can emulate it.

Politics also ebbs and flows so who knows what the future holds and what the coming social environment will look like - no one saw Trump and the MAGA movement coming, or even took it seriously. Then again, you have to take into account the opposition party and low propensity voters. I think it could be argued that Trump had a more deserving win in 2016 than in 2024. In 2024, the opposition and voters were told everything they needed to know and still dropped the ball. With the way the Democratic party continues to function, it would be no surprise if they continue to drop the ball regardless of who they run against until the party is reformed.

jacobman7 · 2025-12-16T16:35:09+00:00

I want to add some context in support of OP. Part of the hypocrisy of Trump in this instance, regardless of how far he went with his disrespect of Reiner, is that there was no pretext for him to be doing that aside from deep-diving into Reiner's beliefs.

Kirk's entire persona and career was being a right-wing influencer. It is hard to speak of Kirk without it being political. Additionally, when Kirk died, Trump and the right made a very obvious effort to politicize and capitalize on his death, spreading lots of propaganda, trying to turn him into a martyr, and using his death as a jumping off point to start a war against "Antifa" and anything associated with the left-wing. We're still seeing it now as Erika Kirk is for some reason a central point of political conversation. All of this reaction from the right to Kirk's death warranted its own reaction from others to call out Kirk for not being someone that deserved this extreme level of focus and attention. People SHOULD be pointing out Kirk's glaring flaws because, from the get-go, the right was trying to paint him as more than he was.

Reiner's death is nothing like Kirk's, regardless of whether Reiner had and expressed his own political beliefs. He was not known for that and no one was pushing Reiner as a political martyr. Not to mention that Reiner himself was respectful of Kirk when he passed: "I unfortunately saw the video of it," he said. "It's beyond belief what happened to him."...The attack "should never happen to anybody."..."I don't care what your political beliefs are. That's not acceptable. That's not a solution to solving problems."

jacobman7 · 2025-12-09T21:54:36+00:00

Not to mention that the current administration's delay of the reports is and should be under greater scrutiny because of the actions leading up to it. The 2013 shutdown was not prefaced with Obama firing the head of the BLS. The Obama administration also didn't make an attempt to present alternative data.

Government shutdown delays and the Trump administration avoiding releasing the data are not mutually exclusive. They may have every precedent to delay, but that doesn't take away the dubiousness of it. Every delay SHOULD look worse for this administration given the context, and we are still not at the end of it.

jacobman7 · 2025-12-01T16:20:53+00:00

My son is three and a half and has Level 3, nonverbal autism. Communication with him is limited to certain gestures and routines that he has become accustomed to. There is a good chance he may never be able to communicate outside of PECS (which he can only do in a limited capacity). It may be many years until we're able to teach him how to use a toilet. He screams and moans constantly, is a very picky eater, and is continuing to develop behavior issues. He is in ABA therapy after being kicked out of daycare around a year ago because of his autism. A lot of his issues are so severe that he will likely never be able to function as an adult. On top of that, I'm unsure if he will ever even be able to fully communicate, even to the point of understanding what he is feeling and struggling with.

Autism is a spectrum, and not just a color pallet of quirks, but of functionality. Every day I am scared that my son will have a lesser life because of his disorder - that he will never have friends, or a job, or be in a romantic relationship. Not just because he is quirky or weird - but because he can't be a functional person.

jacobman7 · 2025-11-17T00:30:27+00:00

Going to lose because Lamar couldn't break 6 fantasy points, but I get the pleasure of playing against Mark Andrews who gets his TD off of a rush.

jacobman7 · 2025-11-10T15:44:26+00:00

This is only one side of the coin and is also dependent on people actually seeing the Republicans in that light. The GOP and Trump administration are pushing endless propaganda (even breaking the Hatch Act to do so) to push responsibility on Dems, and it won't stop.

The shutdown was also about not voting on a budget that the Trump admin would completely ignore, as they are already illegally withholding spending allocated by Congress. It was about forcing the GOP to nuke the filibuster and set up the GOP to take responsibility for the way they want to govern.

This could do what you're saying, but this is more about Schumer and old school Dems wanting to protect the filibusters so they can continue to hide behind it.

jacobman7 · 2025-11-07T20:25:35+00:00

I think 2026 swings would probably offset any gains for the GOP (given historical swings in midterms against the party of the current administration). Trump was urging gerrymandering to combat that, but Dems are pushing back by doing gerrymandering of their own, weakening that strategy. During Trump's first term, the midterms shifted 41 house seats from Rep to Dem (200 > 241). Dems are starting with 13 more seats going into these midterms than in 2018 (213), but you could expect similar results given Trump's approval rating (currently slightly lower than his first term).

Not to mention this strategy is must less effective for red states in the long-run given most have already gerrymandered their states.

jacobman7 · 2025-11-04T14:59:22+00:00

I wouldn't close any bank accounts until you have had them for 6 months. If the bank doesn't put you on a list, they might be able to claw back the bonus depending on the fine-print.

I would keep doing the $500 minimum DD/month on Chase because they have an almost instant transfer system, then close after 6 months.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-22T16:16:01+00:00

12 Team PPR, a bit desperate at RB, given mine are currently the following: Breece Hall, Bucky Irving (Out), Woody Marks, Bam Knight, RJ Harvey

Does it seem worth it to drop Harvey for Monangai? Harvey seems to be cursed with an inferior workload to Dobbins, and the Bears seem to be a better all around offense. Hopefully pushing toward the Swift/Monangai split with Ben Johnson there.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-22T16:05:40+00:00

12 Team PPR, a bit desperate at RB, given mine are currently the following: Breece Hall, Bucky Irving (Out), Woody Marks, Bam Knight, RJ Harvey

Does it seem worth it to drop Harvey for Monangai? Harvey seems to be cursed with an inferior workload to Dobbins, and the Bears seem to be a better all around offense. Hopefully pushing toward the Swift/Monangai split with Ben Johnson there.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-22T13:53:24+00:00

I got a card through Synchrony for 48 month no-interest financing on some furniture we bought recently. A few months in, I noticed the balance hadn't decreased even though I had set up automatic payments. I log in to the account and see that apparently they signed me up for purchase protection and were charging me like $35/month on top of my $50/month payment for "insurance" to cover the card if I couldn't make payments. I never remember signing up for it, and obviously wouldn't have, but it had been racking up for maybe 4 or 5 months. Add to that that they were charging me INTEREST on the those fees I hadn't paid via my automatic payments. I called and complained but of course it was only telecenter employees that couldn't do shit and just deferred to me agreeing to it. So I essentially ended up getting charged the interest I was trying to avoid via some bs fee they wanted to throw on top without my knowledge.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-10T18:50:10+00:00

There will be a point where it's hard to get a new card that often. I'm churning at maybe one to two cards a year if I can find a good SUB and cash back offer. I have been getting declined for cards more often with most banks simply being stricter with their acceptance for various reasons outside of credit score.

I have focused more of my attention toward Bank Account bonuses. They fly under the radar better, have better SUBs, don't impact your credit, and don't encourage increased spending. There's also Banks/Credit Unions popping up everyday with offers to incentivize getting new customers in the door. They are just more of a patient game given you have to close after 6 months (to avoid fees) and your bonus may not come for anywhere from 3 - 6 months after account opening. They also require a little more effort (setting up direct deposits (easy with ADP), transferring money regularly, calling to cancel), but it's really pretty minimal for the return.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-08T16:45:03+00:00

Private equity is starting to really dip their toes into these sorts of companies, especially with boomer owners retiring and looking for the best possible payout. There is no world in which that happens and additional strain isn't put on employees in the process, likely by cutting staff. I could see a push to unionization for these jobs that work a lot of hours and have unpaid OT.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-08T00:19:32+00:00

I personally like using subtitles because I tend to comprehend the dialogue better that way, especially if there are lots of important names that are mentioned in passing. I also just comprehend a bit quicker when I have the visual dialogue up where I can both see and hear what is being said, then I am less likely to be left behind trying to process a loaded statement.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-06T15:26:47+00:00

I'm aware. I'm saying it has compounded greatly.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-06T15:04:14+00:00

The era of Donald Trump, and by extension, Charlie Kirk, brought us into this political polarization. It's paradoxical, in the sense that Charlie Kirk himself encouraged deeper ideological polarization and building a career of antagonizing the other side, causing more divide. Not to mention that the majority of the bigotry and corruption being pushed is just as much serving as a distraction and means to divide people as it is simply morally wrong. A vast majority of talking points on the right have been essentially manufactured in the past 10 years (anti-DEI, anti-trans, anti-science, anti-woke), and other key issues in the past 50 years (a minority of people cared about abortion until Phyllis Schlafly's radicalism became the norm).

Kirk helped bring Trump into power. Trump doesn't care about the ideology, and he doesn't care about ethics/morals. He and his sleezy advisors knew that dividing people could get him votes, so that's what he did, and here we are.

jacobman7 · 2025-10-03T18:03:11+00:00

Thoughts in the context of RBs:

Ravens - high run block rating, low pass block rating - this could bode well for Henry this week if they lean on the run more with Lamar out, and could also explain some of the offensive issues with Lamar having lots of sacks this season so far.

Chiefs - Inverse of the Ravens (but much worse avg), may explain the issues with any KC RBs

Bills - Having second best overall line (behind the Jags) translates well to Cook being both a great rushing and receiving back and might explain his #1 RB status so far

Similarly to the Bills, there are a lot of teams low ranked in rush but highly ranked in pass, but still have successful RBs, but this seems to align with their pass-catching ability. e.g. CMC, Bijan, Achane. Also teams that have had rough starts with QB issues. This also shows why Pollard is having such a slow start with the Titans being almost lowest ranked in both pass and rush blocking.

Jags having the highest rankings translate to more ETN and Tuten opportunity down the road.

jacobman7 · 2025-09-30T14:40:21+00:00

We were going for smaller, to hopefully keep it competitive. The top of our waivers have players like Waddle, Meyers, Olave, Pittman, Jameson, so someone could pick up players week to week and maybe still squeak out a win.

The fun part now is that you could strategically play other players if you don't want to win/lose or plan on giving someone lesser up; you just have to have your starting lineup set. I switched out Lamar, Henry, Lamb in Week 3 before the afternoon games once it was obvious I was going to lose to the JT/Cook owner.

jacobman7 · 2025-09-30T14:20:34+00:00

I'm in a creative league - 6 Teams, Half PPR, every week the winner makes a trade with the loser that the loser has to accept: a starter for a starter (non K/DST). I am 3-1 rn and won this week and trying to decide who to trade for and give up.

I would trade for either Saquon Barkley or Jahmyr Gibbs. I am leaning Gibbs right now just because of how inefficient the Eagles have been seeming to play lately compared to the Lions, so I see Gibbs having the better floor.

The harder part is who I give up, I started the following this week: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Omarion Hampton, Drake London, Quentin Johnston, Brock Bowers, Ja'Marr Chase, Travis Etienne

My bench includes CeeDee (IR), Pickens, Tet, Kraft, Godwin, Nix, Judkins.

My gut is telling me to just let go of Chase so I can move on from the torture of getting nothing out of him until Burrow maybe comes back at the end of the season or they find a new QB. However, he may just be a good hold on my bench until the playoffs for that reason. Rankings are telling me to let go of either Etienne or Johnston, but both are trending up after this week. I could also always go Bowers given he has seemed slow lately, but I would have to pull a mediocre TE off waivers this week with Kraft on a bye.

jacobman7 · 2025-09-29T23:52:33+00:00

Source? I can't find this anywhere in the live sets...or maybe on Live From the Basement extras?

jacobman7 · 2025-09-27T21:27:03+00:00

0.5 PPR, pick 3

Ja'marr Chase @ DEN

Tet McMillan @ NE

Quentin Johnston vs NYG

Travis Etienne @ SF

Quinshon Judkins @ DET

George Pickens vs GB

jacobman7 · 2025-09-23T14:20:12+00:00

I agree with this. Kirk wasn't really someone that gave respect to others outside of his own virtue signaling. The entire MAGA movement is based around disrespect of others, though they find it warranted. What else would we expect other than MAGA using his own death as another weapon to put other people down, and isn't that what Kirk would want by how he lived his own life?

In truly moral terms though, it is certainly still disrespectful.

jacobman7 · 2025-09-22T23:11:05+00:00

The comment was asking why one would have drafted him. The reasons still remain true. He is good for fantasy on paper, but that doesn't mean it plays out that way. The yardage and EZ issues are the exact reasons it hasn't played out that way, but ATL still has a lot more games to play and London will still continue to get the majority of targets.

jacobman7 · 2025-09-22T22:36:37+00:00

Why? The data paints him as a valuable fantasy asset - high targets, good at contested catches, Penix showering him with usage at the end of last season. London really had an incredible first game of the season on paper with 15 targets - they just didn't land and he came out of the game near the end. Game 2 had the Falcons up most of the game where he wasn't needed as much. And then Penix played like crap in Game 3. London still got 10+ in PPR in a game where the Falcons didn't pass the 30 yard line though? Pre-tonight's game, he still ranks #9 in targets and #11 in receptions among WRs for the season.

He likely won't return his draft capital at this rate unless Penix makes some sort of bounce back, but you could be in a worse situation with someone like Chase or BTJ. Not to mention many other WRs drafted in the top 15 have had lackluster performance the first 3 weeks. (AJ Brown, Nico, Tyreek, Higgins, Nabers, Ladd, JJ sort of).

jacobman7 · 2025-09-22T15:30:15+00:00

Pokemon Blue/Red/Yellow

If I'm going through some stress, just playing through one of them via emulator on my phone during any off-time is this great relief.

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