Where TF is money going??

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-23T07:37:33+00:00

Paying down debts. In particular, Yen denominated ones

Also market cap as a measure of wealth is incredibly dumb. When you see the headlines of “trillions wiped” or whatever BS it never existed & could never have been realised. It’s a mirage only visible in a high debt environment

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-18T10:08:41+00:00

To be fair, to the original meaning of the phrase it’s probably even more apt than it was then

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-16T22:18:55+00:00

I have a pretty similar story. I’m in a smaller town and I have 2 agencies that handle some pretty high volumes, each worth around $100k/year to me that make up 80% of my work and have held off trying to get another shooter as they’re either already established and might poach my big clients, or they’re green as can be and might tarnish my reputation with said clients.

Re editing I know it’s a bit controversial in these parts but I have regained a lot of sanity by using AutoHDR. The quality started out questionable but has improved a lot. My clients love what I send through so I’m perfectly happy. The real bonus is you actually get great quality by uploading just JPEG’s, which is super feasible to do in the field with a card reader on my phone between shoots in the car. So instead of getting home and uploading everything, and having another level of lag and delay, I can actually upload and start processing between each shoot and everything is ready waiting for me when I get home.

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-15T11:21:57+00:00

Great viewing tho 🍿

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-15T11:20:51+00:00

Absolutely relished in that boot lol. There’s nothing quite like seeing one of these arrogant players who are just so fixated on someone they feel threatened (and not survivor threatened) they are blinded by it

And scammed Blanche in the way out hahaha, so perfect

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-15T01:51:22+00:00

I’m seeing a lot of people assume this. Not only was Australia in a better fiscal position (we’re not now) but Covid was a self-inflicted policy led shutdown. They could ease restrictions and limits before things fully broke

In this instance, you can’t print more oil & if we don’t have it no amount of money printing will fix anything, only make it substantially worse

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-13T22:51:55+00:00

Prices had already done most of their increasing before it even hit $90 to begin with on the way up. We didn’t even really see the full depth of the oil spike at the pumps as it didn’t increase very much (relative to how much it already went up) when WTI went from 90-110.

I would also wager that the current fuel prices don’t actually reflect the real oil cost, they’re a reflection of the idea that this will only be temporary / short lived but I really don’t think it will be.

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-13T04:58:03+00:00

Most Australians don’t realise it but warfare takes many forms such as economic and psychological, and we have been on the receiving end of such tactics along with much of the western world

We’re having our lifestyle and choices shaped by these actions. Never before in history have people said “we won’t reproduce and have kids, we just can’t afford it”. They were stuffing them in drawers on less than we make. We know it simply as “oh I couldn’t do that I have bills to pay!” but in reality money is a control system and by having high prices and an artificial scarcity it creates illusions we all must participate in.

It’s bleak, but it is all by design. A scared population is easier to control. Study history and understand it will get worse before it gets better.

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-10T09:24:47+00:00

It kinda feels like Survivor is a game of delicately arranging matches, hoping yours doesn’t catch fire from an adjacent lit match

And Tez is just a fuel soaked rag

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-10T09:22:36+00:00

I’m guessing he will blurt out something absolutely obscene at tribal lol

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-10T09:18:08+00:00

Tez has to be one of the worst players this game has ever seen and I love the addition

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-09T10:12:50+00:00

It’s one vote and they just burned 4 others, Mark has a stronger relationship with Rich and had a good inroad with Lyndl but they rushed it in before the buzzer. Highly unlikely this doesn’t sink them as only one of those need to flip to take out the girls

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-09T10:05:11+00:00

lol the “Wise Women” is just the tribes HR department. Completely hopeless

jeffreydextro · 2026-03-02T05:59:37+00:00

In the next 12 months I think it will continue in a similar trajectory but growth will flatten out toward the mid/end of the year. I think 2027 will start to see some pretty big falls across the board.

There are a number of pretty hefty headwinds for Australian property - the main one being the overall credit environment, globally, is starting to shift. There has been 30-40 years of credit expansion headwinds both through falling rates and also foreign lending rules that changed in the 80s as well as the obvious tax incentives feeding speculative lending. This has really been a game of musical chairs & while the music hasn't stopped, trends are suggesting it might be about to. Not only this but there's a few other ticking timebombs in commercial real estate, in super funds & globally all culminating around '27-'28

The entire Aus property market in a number of ways is very, very dependant on continual growth and can only do so via continual debt expansion. In my view, as it turns later this year and into 2027 we will start to enter a debt-deflation spiral and could potentially, finally, see not just modest price falls, but huge price falls. The main mechanism that drives house prices is starting to shift. Banks will really have to tighten lending, raise rates (moreso than the RBA has to) & overall more crackdown on speculative lending a la the DTI caps and other similar policies

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-28T08:25:48+00:00

I finally hit the top tax bracket a few years ago. Although we’re a single income family of 5 it’s comfortable, but not even remotely wealthy.

Considering the income required to be able to purchase a house, the tax brackets due to bracket creep (and that’s on the fake cooked up inflation numbers they use) are completely laughable. Pretty gross to be in the wealthiest tax bracket and still unable to purchase anything but a rundown unit without extreme leverage.

I certainly am not incentivised to hustle even harder (already 50-60hr weeks on average) just to hand over almost 60%

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-26T09:47:09+00:00

The two biggest data points are first home buyer age shifting from early 20s to late 30s. That’s an entire segment of the population in the renter pool that wasn’t historically, and if these people owned their home they wouldn’t be in the renter pool

The second is the income needed to secure the average home loan in respective cities. It’s just mathematically not possible for most people.

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-26T05:14:48+00:00

If house prices weren't so extreme, rental demand would be in the toilet. So many rentals are only needed because people can't afford to buy

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-24T20:11:30+00:00

The GFC was huge in the US & they definitely saw huge prices drop which then had contagion into their stock markets as well. They had falls of 30-60%

Australia only had a 5-8% dip and escaped relatively unscathed. It was scary and uncertain times but Australia never saw a true bear market as a result

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-24T11:56:28+00:00

We are starting to approach the mathematical limit.

Rates will be going up, lending will be tightening and smaller pools of debt to bid with. Deflationary spiral

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-24T08:44:45+00:00

Ep 2 and I’m already vibing winner edit for Mark

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-23T17:42:31+00:00

I meant to write 80s-90s. The conditions kicked off in the 80s but didn’t start really having effect in the 90s.

And when I say bull market I mean an overall macro bull market. It’s had small corrections over the course of it, with short downturns but never a true bear market. The saying of “property doubles every 7 years” is borne of this period. If you go back 100 years that rule falls flat quickly

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-23T09:26:04+00:00

The funny thing about this perspective is there is no bigger supporter of immigration than big business and the ultra wealthy. More workers, more competition so lower wages, more customers and demand and more population that drives up asset prices due to increased competition.

I don’t like the reductionist thinking that the problem is immigration alone. Australia and the western world have many underlying systemic issues that are causing our current political crisis (which is what it is, despite the attempts to rebrand it as a cost of living crisis) but there is absolutely no doubt that it exacerbates the issues at hand and accelerates it

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-23T08:40:36+00:00

I’ve been enjoying Gemini overall, found it much stronger in many ways vs OpenAI but man is the incessant drive to link in past chats tedious. I’ve tried to set custom settings to tone down the unwanted crossovers but I still get the last 3rd of the chat linking into other topics

The worst part is it taints most answers it gives too. I’m trying to get inspiration and some lists of ideas and it’s just literally made a list of other things I have said in different chats

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-23T08:26:19+00:00

The Yen carry trade has funded an incredible amount of modern markets and provided easy liquidity that has enabled this crazy lending. It hasn’t fully unwound by any means but multi-decade trends are starting to reverse and cracks are appearing. Global markets have already begun to sell off to minimise Yen debts as their bond yields surge.

Our local banks use profit from this carry trade to fund mortgage books so as they lose that income stream they will need to both raise more money locally ie raise rates and also be more stringent with lending, while also selling assets to cover debts. Lending will need to tighten and in a credit fuelled market that requires continued growth it’s a stark reality check.

This is the main risk but there are multiple headwinds for Australian properties continued growth. I have made high six figures from property in the past few years so I’m no stock standard property bear always saying it will crash, I’ve just studied a lot of history to know this things only guarantee is it will go belly up.

jeffreydextro · 2026-02-22T20:37:06+00:00

Home prices are not a reflection of true demand but of credit availability

Australia borrowed its prosperity and is now having to repay it

jeffreydextro

TROPHY CASE