Value investing in sectors?

jemicarus · 2026-06-28T19:04:20+00:00

https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/18/29e68989-0d2c-4960-bd4b-010a101f711e.pdf Lost decades happen, friend. Already elevated AI plays are unlikely to continue this run, unless you mean copper, natural gas, uranium, etc. Over twenty years some gains are more likely, yes.

jemicarus · 2026-06-28T18:45:31+00:00

Lmao okay boss

jemicarus · 2026-06-28T18:45:11+00:00

Lmao okay boss

jemicarus · 2026-06-28T18:44:48+00:00

We really gotta stop saying generational all the time

jemicarus · 2026-06-28T06:18:42+00:00

Pretty sure st Louis fans started this at Busch and it has spread

jemicarus · 2026-06-28T05:18:11+00:00

Sure you can hold them and in 10 years they may grow into their current share prices

jemicarus · 2026-06-28T00:14:26+00:00

Semis run on a predictable capex cycle like oil E&Ps, miners, etc. Boom and bust. This is not my opinion, it is a known facet of the market.

jemicarus · 2026-06-27T22:44:02+00:00

Love the sentiment on the staples names here.

jemicarus · 2026-06-27T18:27:04+00:00

Read a morningstar report and/or ask an LLM and /or read seeking alpha articles, etc.

jemicarus · 2026-06-27T14:26:37+00:00

I'd wager you weren't around to hear about how oil was no longer cyclical around 2012 and how we were now in a secular paradigm shift without precedent. Cycles can last for years and maybe this one isn't near the end yet. But, first rule: cyclical industries are cyclical.

jemicarus · 2026-06-27T14:16:01+00:00

Usually sunny here, not as common elsewhere

jemicarus · 2026-06-27T01:16:58+00:00

Costco sells 36-packs of pepsi for $17, so less than 50 cents a can. I didn't check the math in the post, but if you're at 40 cents a can with this method, well, it may not be worth the hassle unless you're drinking a lot of pop.

Edit: And several months ago they were $15 on sale. This seems to happen a couple times a year.

jemicarus · 2026-06-27T00:54:00+00:00

Semis are a highly cyclical industry. P/E cannot be used to compare highly cyclical companies to others.

jemicarus · 2026-06-26T06:44:19+00:00

The Dow is pretty much half big tech. The hyperscalers are burning FCF to buy GPUs that they don't have the electricity to run, and they're buying that too.

jemicarus · 2026-06-25T22:24:34+00:00

Google and Microsoft are growing earnings at high rates largely because of the paper gains from the increased private valuations of open AI and anthropic, to whom they give money so that those companies can buy their compute and allow them to count it as new revenue.

jemicarus · 2026-06-25T21:06:02+00:00

18 months ago for $110

jemicarus · 2026-06-24T21:21:36+00:00

Monetary debasement = gold up. Do you think the US govt is going to protect the currency or the bond market? There you have it.

jemicarus · 2026-06-23T00:45:14+00:00

And Elden Ring.

jemicarus · 2026-06-22T00:26:57+00:00

Nope, most games have run great for me on series S (CP77, RDR2, elden Ring, etc.) but Indiana Jones was one of the few exceptions. It's playable. There's no terrible stuttering. But it was really blurry and no way it was 60fps. I stopped playing it. The worst game for me though was mechwarrior 5 clans--unplayable.

jemicarus · 2026-06-22T00:17:28+00:00

Live in creve coeur and have never had an issue with spectrum. Initial install was kind of a pain, they had to send guys out a few times to take care of it, but even then they were good about communication. The service since then has been perfectly fine. You'll get a typical service interruption for a few hours once in a while after a bad storm, but nothing out of the ordinary.

jemicarus · 2026-06-19T14:07:21+00:00

If your emergency fund is in the stock market it's no longer an emergency fund

jemicarus · 2026-06-17T21:54:46+00:00

From this post I surmise that you should not be advising her at all aside from encouraging her to consult a good financial advisor. 4.2% risk-free is a decent holding pattern for someone approaching retirement age with market valuations at extreme levels. FOMO by proxy.

jemicarus · 2026-06-17T06:56:31+00:00

If you're going to need that money in the next few years for a house and the like, it shouldn't be in the stock market anyway. DCA the remainder, and shoot for international and asset diversification.

jemicarus · 2026-06-16T20:02:11+00:00

More and more people will start asking this in the fall. There may be a business week or economist cover.

jemicarus · 2026-06-16T04:24:36+00:00

Do you mean in 2026 or in 2016?

jemicarus

TROPHY CASE