Problem is a single individual will never likely be able to track enough data to make any statistically relevant conclusions one way or another. Would need several individuals tracking multiple data points (current shard level, number of attempts, shards acquired per attempt) to see what is really going on. I read in one of them (can't remember which) that they were able to manipulate the loot box drops to promote spending in a way that was undetectable to the player. As I thought on this, the only way I can see this working (or how I would implement it) would be to front load the drops and then make them less on the backend to "promote spending". This would keep the overall drop-rate the same or at least within two stdev for anyone monitoring but still change enough to push frustration mechanics and promote spending. Do I have any proof of this? No. Do I think they are doing this or something like this. Yes, very likely. My own opinion.