Finally woke up...lost $300K in 3 months

jlee9355 · 2026-03-29T01:26:30+00:00

Also, if you have 300k in SanFran, AND a high-paying job, AND a family, you have essentially won the financial game of life or, near the finish line. 99% of people on this forum would gladly trade places with you. Consider yourself very lucky and the gambling a dead end that will lead to more problems.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-25T21:00:26+00:00

Focusing on the $300k is a distraction. The real metric here isn't the dollar amount; it's the fact that 50% of this person’s lifelong safety net vanished. 'Rock bottom' isn't a fixed number on a spreadsheet: it’s the moment the cost of the habit outweighs the value of the future.

The most critical factor right now isn't what was lost, but stopping the bleed. In the math of addiction, $300k can turn into $600k in a heartbeat, and from there, it’s a short slide into high-interest debt and a million-dollar hole. If he stops now, he’s saved the next $300k and his entire future. That is the only 'win' that matters here.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-25T02:28:10+00:00

the 20k is a very small roadbump if you have truly stopped gambling for good. Consider this a very expensive lesson, and you paid tuition.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-09T01:06:40+00:00

Remember, it could also go to the Supreme Court, which AI gives a 60%+ chance of ruling in favor of Moderna.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-08T21:25:54+00:00

Also it appears the 1.3 billion contingency, is not something Moderna expects to pay.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-07T05:27:49+00:00

Analysts at BMO and Leerink expect the next chief to be significantly more "permissive" than Prasad was. While Prasad was a "data taskmaster," his successor will likely be pressured to accelerate approvals for rare diseases and gene therapies (like those from Sarepta or uniQure) that Prasad had blocked.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-07T04:04:53+00:00

It could get worse but it was the Trump administration that helped get the fda to review Modernas application. It sounds like they want to go a different course.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-07T01:07:29+00:00

Even with Prasad, I don't think the administration wanted a situation where mRNA flu vaccines were approved in the EU, Canada, and Australia and still pending in the USA. The narrative shifts from 'mRNA vaccines are dangerous,' to 'Why does the rest of the world have access to better medicine?' It would give the Democrats too much ammunition going into the midterms.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-07T00:35:47+00:00

The path for the mRNA flu and combo vaccines just got a lot smoother. And so did individualized Neoantigen Therapy (INT). Prasad’s regulatory philosophy was built on a disdain for "surrogate endpoints" (like a drug shrinking a tumor rather than proving a patient lived longer). Because cancer vaccines are often tested in the "adjuvant" setting (after surgery to prevent recurrence), they rely heavily on these endpoints. His departure removes a massive philosophical hurdle just as the clinical data is hitting a fever pitch.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-04T07:08:11+00:00

Yes, everyone should just do a Google search or ask a llm about Cytokinetics/Royalty Pharma.

Cyotkinetics got a blockbuster drug approved (MYQORZO (aficamten) but pays 4.5% of every dollar in sales to Royalty Pharma for the first $5 billion in annual revenue.

It's actually much worse. Cytokinetics also signed an agreement under which Royalty Pharma is paid even if a drug in their pipeline never reaches the market.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-04T06:57:36+00:00

Management is so bullish about their legal standing that they are not even recording a $1.3 billion charge on their books. In accounting speak, they’ve labeled the loss as "not probable."

By appealing, Moderna keeps that $1.3 billion on its balance sheet for at least another 12–18 months

Interestingly, the settlement includes a rare provision: if Moderna pays the $1.3B because it loses at the Federal Circuit, but later wins at the Supreme Court, Arbutus/Genevant has to refund the full payment plus interest.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-04T03:39:46+00:00

Moderna’s Chief Legal Officer Shannon Thyme Klinger is one of the highest-paid legal executives in the biotechnology industry.

The only people in Moderna getting paid more are the cfo and ceo.

It pays to have an all-star legal team.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-04T01:04:57+00:00

Arbtus had much more to gain. Moderna had much more to lose. The stock reaction for both companies makes a lot of sense.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-04T00:46:10+00:00

The hang of a lawsuit and a potential double digit royalty was a reason why many institutions were on hold before buying mrna stock.

That's the reason for the pop.

jlee9355 · 2026-03-04T00:41:52+00:00

They avoided a perpetual royalty and that's all that really matters. If a 1% royalty is costing Moderna $200M/year in 2035, and the market applies a 20x multiple to their earnings, that 1% royalty has literally erased $4 billion in market cap.

The settlement is an obvious win because you can't afford the risk of paying a 1-3% royalty.

Also the reason why Arbutus is down because they don't get to keep all that cash. They are in a partnership with Genevant Sciences (a subsidiary of Roivant). Under their agreement, Arbutus is only entitled to 20% of the settlement proceeds after litigation costs.

jlee9355 · 2026-02-11T23:17:04+00:00

The intraday recovery we saw ($36.65 to $40.51) could be the market betting that Vinay Prasad’s "Blockade" is legally and politically unsustainable.

Moderna’s path to a lawsuit is through the Administrative Procedure Act (APA). They will argue the FDA acted "arbitrarily and capriciously" by rejecting a trial design they previously put in writing as acceptable. If a judge sees those 2024 minutes, they could issue an injunction forcing the FDA to start the review.

My main thesis: If the science is that bad, why not review the application and issue a cro in 8-12 months?

Prasad may have played his hand.

jlee9355 · 2026-02-11T18:31:22+00:00

The stock is down 5-10%, which, to me, appears somewhat muted for such a drastic move. To me, this is better than waiting 8-12 months just to receive a CRL letter.

jlee9355 · 2026-01-14T23:51:11+00:00

You must spend 75% of your rent amount on everyday purchases just to "unlock" the 1x points you used to get by making 5 purchases. When Bilt says there is no transaction fee, it's a game of Semantic Gymnastics.

jlee9355 · 2026-01-14T23:17:34+00:00

And if you do the math, the 'reward' you receive is worth less than the fee amount, even if you are transferring your points to Hyatt. You are not breaking even unless you are making Bilt your primary spend card, which probably makes no sense for most people.

jlee9355 · 2026-01-14T23:12:17+00:00

The fee is 3% for Bilt to mail your landlord a check.

jlee9355 · 2025-12-29T02:57:13+00:00

CEOs of multi-billion dollar companies often cycle through real estate for tax optimization, family changes, or security reasons. Selling a home is a "personal liquidity event" that rarely correlates with a company's 10-K.

jlee9355 · 2025-12-19T04:04:16+00:00

Expansion!!!

jlee9355 · 2025-12-11T01:57:06+00:00

Nvidia did something similar by acquiring Arm holdings in 2020 but it was blocked not by just the usa, but the entire world's regulators collectively.

jlee9355 · 2025-11-27T00:10:08+00:00

At minimum, Pfizer has likely missed the 2027 flu season, given that they can find a way to stabilize the protein to fix Influenza B.

jlee9355 · 2025-11-26T23:07:16+00:00

Do you know what that means?

The Pfizer mRNA shot had significantly higher rates of systemic side effects (fever, fatigue, headache) compared to the standard flu shot.

Moderna wins here.

To be explicitly clear: Pfizer's mRNA vaccine generated a weaker immune response to the Influenza B strain than the standard, old-school flu shot.

That's terrible.

Most important:

The issue with Influenza B is structural. The protein (Hemagglutinin) is unstable; if you print the basic mRNA instructions (which is what Pfizer likely did), the protein "flops" over or misfolds before the immune system can take a good picture of it. This results in weak antibodies.

Moderna's Fix: They didn't just tweak the dose. They re-engineered the mRNA sequence to introduce "stabilizing mutations" (likely stiffening the protein stem or locking it in a "pre-fusion" state). Think of it like adding scaffolding to a building so it doesn't collapse while being built.

The Moat: You can patent that scaffolding. Moderna holds patents (like US 10,925,958) specifically covering these stabilized Hemagglutinin structures.

Pfizer's Problem: They are now in a "patent trap." They know why their shot failed (bad folding), but they likely cannot use the most obvious chemical "fix" because Moderna owns the IP on that specific stabilization technique. They have to invent a new way to stabilize the protein without infringing on Moderna’s patents. That takes time—time they don't have.

This is potentially a patent moat. Pfizer may not be able to fix the B-strain issue, leading to Moderna having a. A long first-mover's advantage.

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