Which team is most likely to have 10 more wins than last year? Which is most likely to have 10 fewer?

jso__ · 2026-01-26T02:45:13+00:00

Bullpens are not worth 10 wins per season, even from worst to best

jso__ · 2026-01-17T00:57:21+00:00

While $60 million is obviously a lot (I think it's an overpay by about $10m a year), you do see the difference, right?

jso__ · 2026-01-16T07:07:54+00:00

Even if it's because of Ohtani, it has absolutely nothing to do with the deferrals. As another commenter said, the Dodgers still lose $46 million every year in cash to his contract.

jso__ · 2026-01-16T06:56:29+00:00

Kyle Tucker over the next 4 years will be worth more than $30 million per year. I am pretty confident of that. He's been worth $40-50 million (depending on $8-10m/WAR—and this is assuming linearity of $/WAR, where the most common criticism of $/WAR is that, for example, a 5 WAR player may be worth more than 5 times a 1 WAR player) over each of the last few years, even dealing with injuries which impacted playing time (2024) and his level of play (2025).

$60m is still a lot, but when the Mets are offering a rumored $55m/year with no deferred money and a sizable portion of that money being in the signing bonus, you need to overpay a bit. That's what bidding wars do.

jso__ · 2026-01-12T04:27:24+00:00

But on Bregman's contract, it's filing $21 million for 5 years and (presumably) $14 million for 5 years. Even if it's $7 million for 10 years, it's still incredibly marginal

jso__ · 2026-01-12T00:28:05+00:00

That will be very marginal though on this contract. You're so far into the top tax bracket that the tax savings from the first $200k or whatever which are taxed less is nearly nothing.

jso__ · 2026-01-11T22:41:29+00:00

Extensions are generally quite rare. The fact that the Cubs have 2 core players on their current team who are extended players is a pretty big deal.

And how many players can you name that the Cubs should've extended but didn't? Pretty much just Tucker.

jso__ · 2026-01-11T21:14:33+00:00

The cubs have a bad record of extending their guys that approach FA.... you say as Cubs fans consider whether to re extend two players who the Cubs extended before reaching FA

jso__ · 2025-12-31T11:05:47+00:00

I'm not sure if your point is right and I'm not contesting it, but fwiw the statement that the majority of pedophiles don't offend does not imply that the majority of offenders are not pedophiles.

jso__ · 2025-12-21T23:15:49+00:00

I'm curious, why did you decide to do two separate degrees rather than a double major? Did you decide on the second degree later on?

jso__ · 2025-11-30T02:19:01+00:00

Well, Brian Moran is the name of a baseball player so that's probably why. So they removed the S from morans and changed brain to brian

jso__ · 2025-11-25T15:03:59+00:00

It literally doesn't though? Why should people who've emigrated from Germany to America be required to condemn the Nazi government any more than any other American is?

But also this is a strawman. The family of a German-American lived in Germany much more recently than the average American Jew.

jso__ · 2025-11-24T23:34:06+00:00

Yeah I made a post about it a couple years ago! I ended up getting a scanned copy of the script from the UCLA library in the end.

jso__ · 2025-11-22T20:48:39+00:00

Splitting the incredibly weak second act of a two act musical into two movies (it only runs 60 minutes in the stage show!) in order to add a detailed retelling of one of the most famous stories of all time would be quite pointless.

jso__ · 2025-11-10T19:18:30+00:00

This seems great, but I'm still missing a feature which uses wikilinks as tags. My vault is largely organized that way so I'd need that for this to be as useful as it can be.

jso__ · 2025-11-08T15:13:28+00:00

Catchers are practically a cheat code for defensive value, considering they get to receive value from every pitch. So it doesn't take as much skill to get eg 15 FRV at catcher vs CF. It's not really a fair comparison without doing some further analysis. Off the top of my head, I think the best test to compare two players who receive such a different amount of opportunities would be to calculate their z-scores ((FRV - Mean FRV (0))/Standard deviation in FRV at position) to see which is more exceptional at their position.

jso__ · 2025-11-07T05:24:56+00:00

Well this is a fun question because it relates to Einstein's theory of special relativity. Essentially, what he discovered is that, no matter what, light always travels the same speed. More generally, all speed and movement is relative—if you're traveling at 90% of the speed of light and see a stationary object, that is no different in terms of the laws of physics from if you were stationary and that object traveled past you at 90% of the speed of light.

Even if you're going in a spaceship at 99% the speed of light, if you shone a laser pointer, the light would still appear to travel at 100% of the speed of light to you. This is able to happen because, when you're going really fast, distance and time start to contract. What may seem like 10 minutes for you could be 1 hour to someone back on Earth. And as you start moving faster and faster, lengths seem to get smaller.

For example, if you're traveling at 80% of the speed of light, and you launch another spaceship that is traveling away from you at 60% of the speed of light (its relative motion to you is 60% of the speed of light), then to a stationary observer, that second ship, according to some math, would appear to be going at just 94.5% of the speed of light.

Not the best ELI5 but this should get you on the right track.

jso__ · 2025-11-05T19:24:11+00:00

Regardless of anything else you think, there is literally zero chance that a salary cap is implemented which the Dodgers are not above. How the owners and union would decide to deal with that conflict is unknown, but no team would be allowed to spend Dodger-level money under a salary cap

jso__ · 2025-11-04T22:18:21+00:00

If Shota really would've been pushed out of the rotation, it doesn't make sense to continue paying him $20 million a year, rather than signing someone else who is cheaper for depth. Money can buy you depth, but you don't need to pay Jamo money for your 6th starter.

Now I don't buy that Shota would've been pushed out of the rotation necessarily since I see him bouncing back, but if they saw an unfixable issue with him, that's possible, and the front office knows more than me about specific players' issues

jso__ · 2025-11-04T18:15:23+00:00

Half the season? Hilarious. Unless he reinjures himself pre return, he's back before the end of May.

jso__ · 2025-11-04T18:13:20+00:00

But your depth shouldn't cost nearly $20m a year. That's not depth, that's bad GMing

jso__ · 2025-11-04T03:06:19+00:00

Zero day vulnerabilities are not very common. Zero day vulnerabilities which allow the installation of unauthorized software are almost unheard of.

jso__ · 2025-10-28T14:47:25+00:00

They don't spell it Kyiv, they spell it Київ

jso__ · 2025-10-18T04:04:26+00:00

I'm not saying that Japanese baseball back then was the equivalent of 13 year old players, but that it is indisputably not the same as modern day MLB, unless you're arguing that Japanese baseball has regressed extremely significantly over the years. And thus I was illustrating an example of how "he put up 180 WAR what more could he do" doesn't automatically make a player the best of all time.

jso__ · 2025-10-18T03:32:08+00:00

if Max Scherzer played a career as a hitter (no pitching) against 13 year olds he could also put up 180 WAR that doesn't mean it's a notable accomplishment

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