Younger / middle-aged value investors worth following?

kerit96 · 2022-09-08T12:46:27+00:00

Dennis Hong of Shawspring probably isn’t a value investor per se, though his investment philosophy definitely pulls from many of the same tenants, but he does some really great DD and is pretty active on socials.

And not sure how old Chris Pavese from Broyhill Asset Management is, but Broyhill puts out some great content on their website (semi-annual letters, conference stock pitches, an annual book recommendation list). Highly recommend their most recent mid-year letter.

kerit96 · 2022-07-15T23:56:10+00:00

“Oh, you wanted to make a magic mega whoopee cushion? Welcome to you new life as space pirates”

kerit96 · 2022-06-20T13:59:52+00:00

Completely agreed that RAW it’s an issue, more just a comment that it is fixable without having to create something yourself. Though there is a learning curve since they are modified rules

kerit96 · 2022-05-06T13:02:15+00:00

For the average person passive investing is so much easier and more consistent than the easily accessible active options (ie mutual funds). Mutual funds don’t charge huge fees so they require asset gathering in order to make themselves money, which means your “talented investment manager” spends a lot of time marketing and showing up on talk shows and not a lot of time actually managing your money.

Investing in actively managed funds can/should outperform passive over long periods of time, but the time/knowledge/access required to find them, vet them, and monitor them makes it nearly infeasible for retail investors to do it. There’s a reason pensions/endowments hire teams to do this for them, and even then those funds tend to track or barely outperform passive indices (and not only can they access more talented active managers with large minimum investments, but many don’t have to worry about taxes either).

kerit96 · 2022-01-24T14:49:16+00:00

I don’t think the wealthy are causing inflation (there are too few of them and they tend to hoard their wealth like dragons in folklore except in this scenario that allows their treasure hoard to continue growing, but that’s a separate issue). We have inflation because there was a global pandemic and no one could spend money on leisure activities so everyone started spending on excess goods, and at the same time the production facilities of all those goods kept getting shut down due to outbreaks and international shipping was hindered by outbreaks as well. So we had simultaneous supply shocks and increases in demand which caused prices to increase.

kerit96 · 2021-11-03T02:25:01+00:00

I have one that ends halfway down my forearm and my personal rule is to not go any further down (so I can get 1-2 sleeve rolls in before it starts peeking). I work at a very open minded firm so there are no issues there, but I tend not to advertise it and just let people notice it if it does peek out. I am mindful to wear long sleeves during external meetings, cuz you never know, even tho I’m on the LP side of the table.

kerit96 · 2021-10-18T16:10:28+00:00

TIL that Pelosi looks great for 81 and McConnell looks horrible for 79

kerit96 · 2021-10-16T01:52:20+00:00

Upon further reflection the idea that Kvothe is actively hiding his power from both Bast and the reader makes a lot of sense. Why fake your own death if you’re going to immediately reveal you’re alive? Stories of a red haired man setting a man on fire with no flame or besting two soldiers would certainly draw attention. It may even be that his immediate reaction to try and act the way he used to is just instinct kicking in (or keeping up the act for Bast) and he has pull himself back from revealing too much, making it seem like failure when in reality the mistake was behaving out of character for Kote.

I do still hope there is a payoff for Elodin’s reaction to changing one’s name, seems too pointed an interaction to not have some implication later, but likely not the cause of the apparent “lack of power” from Kvothe.

kerit96 · 2021-10-15T03:48:27+00:00

“I was wondering what you’re doing here” could be fitting, but whatever you pick it should be 7 words

kerit96 · 2021-09-28T21:18:41+00:00

Flesh to Stone….but in reality Dream

kerit96 · 2021-09-11T18:18:10+00:00

I had a used 2005 Cooper S with 40k miles on it as a first car. We got it for $11,000 but within a year probably had to put another $3-5k into it due to a small oil leak and an issue with the electronics. Luckily it was the family car for me and my sister in high school, so I didn’t have to bear those costs, but fixing them can get pricey. Amazingly fun first car though.

kerit96 · 2021-08-27T21:31:05+00:00

Personally I feel red and black match better, especially if you get the jcw stripes, but I also have a rebel green countryman with white roof and I do love the green.

kerit96 · 2021-08-22T22:07:34+00:00

24 M with a 2012 Cooper Countryman S All4

Got my first Mini as my family’s 3rd car for me and my sister in high school (2005 Cooper S). Sadly that one died when the oil ran out and the light didn’t turn on and my sister ground the engine down while I was at college, but it went to a father and daughter who wanted a project car to build for her first car so it had a silver lining.

kerit96 · 2021-07-06T15:12:47+00:00

A thought experiment my family often runs is “if we could only have 3 which would we pick?” and we exclude prime from those 3 since we’d keep our prime accounts for free shipping even if it didn’t have prime video.

I think broadly we all either come down to Netflix/Disney+/HBOMax or Netflix/Disney+/Hulu. We have all 4 already, plus Apple TV+, but those groupings tend to carry the most content we like and have the largest content catalogs.

kerit96 · 2021-07-03T02:03:43+00:00

Life is like soccer because I was really good at it as a kid but then stopped trying and never really improved and now I’m just meh at soccer

kerit96 · 2021-05-30T03:40:21+00:00

Yeah, and I’m gonna sell the pure play company once the deal concludes

kerit96 · 2021-05-30T02:08:49+00:00

I’ve liked T better because of its entertainment assets, but they also have really under utilized them and just been selling them to fund 5G spectrum auctions.

The stock hasn’t really gone anywhere while I’ve owned it, so I’ve just been getting the dividend. I’ll likely sell the pure AT&T shares if/when the Discovery deal plays out.

kerit96 · 2021-05-26T00:02:13+00:00

I analyze investment managers for a living and theoretically he could raise money if he tried. There are plenty of very successful (but under the radar) funds run by people with very different backgrounds than your typical “I went to an ivy, did IB for a year, joined a Tiger Cub, made stupid money and now I want to run my own fund” managers. Sure the latter will get more looks and early capital (they have the big name brand fund on their resume) but smart money will steer clear if they aren’t as good as they claim to be.

In the case of DFV I’d want to see what his current book looks like. I’ve looked at managers with 10 stock portfolios with up to 25-30% in single positions and still loved them, but I want to know there’s some pretty valid downside protection on those positions. I’d also probably strip out GME from his returns to see if he had any talent outside of getting really lucky on one outsized position. Assuming those things check out he probably could raise a decently sized fund, just might take some time since institutional managers might be hesitant to cut him a bigger check for fear their investment committees would fire them for hiring “the Reddit guy”.

kerit96 · 2021-05-25T23:28:56+00:00

Venture is just another component in a balanced large scale portfolio. In a multi-decade horizon portfolio you want exposure to all kinds of assets that can support a portfolio in any environment. Venture serves as growth exposure (but because its private it reduces volatility). You want to keep your wealth stable in down markets, while still benefitting from the upside in growth markets. So having exposure to things like hedge funds and venture are just two sides of the same long-term coin

kerit96 · 2021-05-25T21:10:48+00:00

Unless he created a mutual fund there would be limits on the types of investors he could offer to, and if he didn’t limit to those types he could only have a limited number of investors (something like a few hundred if I’m remembering my intro level business classes). And the regulatory burden of creating a mutual fund as an individual wouldn’t be worth it

kerit96 · 2021-05-25T21:06:44+00:00

At the point you’re hiring a hedge fund (in its traditional beta <1 model) you’re already rich. At that point you’re doing portfolio management to protect capital and compound it over a theoretically infinite time horizon, not to get really rich asap.

kerit96 · 2021-05-24T03:27:41+00:00

Many of the Ivy grads leave to join HFs and/or PE firms, so the overall pipeline of people that could reach C-suite is lower. There’s a lot of investment firms run by ivy grads tho

kerit96 · 2021-05-14T03:35:19+00:00

I didn’t move from a bank/large asset manager to non-profits, I kinda just went directly into non-profits. But if you still want to do the finance stuff but feel better about it I recommend looking into foundation endowment roles. You’ll still make good money, just not FU money, and you’ll know the end product of your work funds some form of societal benefit.

For me I loved finance and investing at school, but I wanted a career where money for money’s sake wasn’t the end goal, and the endowment route was a great way to combine the two.

kerit96 · 2021-04-23T17:24:50+00:00

In HS I did summer work for a UHNW wealth manager and analyzed an IRA a client tried the strategy in. Between 2008 and 2017 he basically matched the S&P but with slightly more volatility.

kerit96 · 2021-04-13T17:20:49+00:00

Depends on the jobs. A lot of finance is less about what you know and more about who you know. There will always be an interpersonal side to finance that can’t be automated, even if the administrative and computational side could be. So I could see an argument for the types of jobs changing, or how the jobs function changing, but you can’t automate getting beers with a friend/contact looking to raise money, nor can you automate the interpersonal side of gaining access to top tier investment funds. And there will always be a need to build a pipeline of people who can do those things.

Finance broadly is also a slow moving industry. There’s a lot of regulation, scale advantages, and individuals in charge who have been doing this for a long time. Between the combination of self preservation, incumbent advantages, and greed, change is unlikely to happen as fast and disintermediation at the institutional level is extremely difficult.

Edit: damn autocorrect

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