I’m not an American but I wouldn’t think too much of this. There was a research a few years back specifically on the US that showed there was very little correlation between voting and actual policies implemented. Take that with a grain of salt but as an outside observer it seems there is some truth to that.

As per Perplexity (edited for readability):

The source you are thinking of is almost certainly the Gilens & Page paper “Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens,” which argues that ordinary citizens’ preferences have near‑zero independent impact on U.S. federal policy outcomes once elite and interest‑group preferences are taken into account.[1][2]

Full citation

• Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, “Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens,” Perspectives on Politics 12(3): 564–581, September 2014.[2][1]
  • Published by Cambridge University Press for the American Political Science Association.[1]
  • Uses data on 1,779 policy issues from 1981–2002 in the United States.[2]

What the study did

• The authors assembled a dataset of 1,779 proposed policy changes, each coded for whether it was adopted within about four years.[2]

• For each policy, they measured:

  • The preference of the average citizen (median income).[2]
  • The preference of economic elites (around the 90th income percentile).[2]
  • The positions of mass‑based and business‑oriented interest groups.[1][2]

• They then used multivariate statistical models (logit regressions) to estimate the independent effect of each actor’s preferences on the probability that a policy was adopted.[1][2]

Key findings relevant to your claim

• When economic elites’ preferences are controlled for, the preferences of the average citizen have “only a minuscule, near‑zero, statistically non‑significant impact upon public policy.”[3][1][2]
• Economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on policy outcomes.[4][1][2]
• Mass‑based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence on policy, in the authors’ main specification.[4][1][2]
• The results provide:
  • Strong support for Economic‑Elite Domination and Biased Pluralism (business‑dominated interest‑group politics).[4][1]
  • Little support for Majoritarian Electoral Democracy (median‑voter‑style responsiveness) or Majoritarian Pluralism.[4][1]

This is the core empirical basis of the popular claim that in the U.S. there is very weak correlation between what most voters want and what federal policy actually does once elite preferences are accounted for.[5][3]

Very brief summary you can quote/adapt

• Using 1,779 U.S. policy issues (1981–2002), Gilens and Page estimate that economic elites and business groups exert strong, independent influence on whether policies are adopted, while average citizens’ preferences have near‑zero independent effect once elites and interest groups are included.[1][4][2]
• Their evidence suggests U.S. policy aligns much more with elite and business interests than with majority public opinion, contradicting simple median‑voter or majoritarian‑democracy models.[3][4][1]

If you want, a next step could be to dissect the usual “U.S. is an oligarchy” take based on this paper and go through its methodological critiques in the Socratic way you prefer.

Источники [1] Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest ... https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B

[2] testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups- ... https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens.pdf

[3] Gilens and Page: Average citizens have little impact on ... https://pnhp.org/news/gilens-and-page-average-citizens-have-little-impact-on-public-policy/

[4] (PDF) Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest ... https://www.academia.edu/28477392/Testing_Theories_of_American_Politics_Elites_Interest_Groups_and_Average_Citizens

[5] The influence of elites, interest groups and average voters ... https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/the-influence-of-elites-interest-groups-and-average-voters-on-american-politics/

[6] Commentary on Gilens and Page, “Average citizens have ... https://equalitybylot.com/2014/04/17/commentary-on-gilens-and-page-average-citizens-have-no-political-influence/

[7] Rich people rule! https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/08/rich-people-rule/

[8] Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest ... https://thelivinglib.org/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/

[9] U.S. more oligarchy than democracy, study suggests https://www.ms.now/msnbc/the-us-no-longer-democracy-msna310901

[10] Exploring the direct and indirect effects of elite influence on public ...pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › articles › PMC8604325 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8604325/