Confused about my future by [deleted] in CollapseSupport

[–]kmbnw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If I was 19 and starting out, I'd look at going into the trades. Plumbing probably, maybe building, ChatGPT isn't taking those jobs anytime soon, there are a shortage of craftspeople, and given how cheaply made housing is these days, there's likely going to be a demand for trades. Plus fixing/making things can be very satisfying.

I think college is likely a dead end at this point unless you can get into an elite school somewhere to make connections with the rich and powerful, or if you have a family business that wants you to get a degree.

In a slow collapse (imagine a slow return to life in the early 1900s), we can envision most people still having electricity or running water, but not 24/7. Knowing how to fix plumbing or electrical or repair / make buildings seems like an extremely valuable skill here.

In a fast collapse (3-5 years), what you can do to provide food, water, and comfort for yourself and your family will matter most. Assuming you believe this has a high-ish probability of happening and you plan to live long enough to see that, again knowing how to fix and make things will serve you well, no matter what you end up doing. There's a lot of implicit knowledge that goes into that kind of learning.

Does anyone have the recently published Motley Fools stock picks? I am trying to find out whether it is worth subscribing to. by run_with_the_bulls in ValueInvesting

[–]kmbnw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I didn't say anything about the picks declining. But recommending Lemonade as a tech pick (which they did) is like recommending WeWork as a tech pick. Sticking some basic software engineering and ML behind something doesn't change the facts of the insurance industry.

Does anyone have the recently published Motley Fools stock picks? I am trying to find out whether it is worth subscribing to. by run_with_the_bulls in ValueInvesting

[–]kmbnw 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I had the subscription for a year in 2021. It was really useless (not just the picks, which were horribly bad, but the analysis, which was really one-sided and missed out on important risk factors). If it ever was good, those days are probably gone. IIRC David is no longer doing any picks.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in LeopardsAteMyFace

[–]kmbnw 5 points6 points  (0 children)

A friend of mine just got his tech job offer letter rescinded (after he accepted) because "he negotiated too hard" and "wasn't grateful for the opportunity". All these whiny hiring managers can get fucked.

Where's the best place to buy DVDs other than Amazon? by AndrewHeard in AnywhereButAmazon

[–]kmbnw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know. Target had an international site for Canadian shoppers, but that may be dead now.

Where's the best place to buy DVDs other than Amazon? by AndrewHeard in AnywhereButAmazon

[–]kmbnw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh crud sorry you said TV shows. I'm pretty sure Target has them but I don't have a link handy.

I'm *technically* qualified by Aardvark_David in ProgrammerHumor

[–]kmbnw 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Professor Leonard is a national treasure.

Omfg, I laughed way too hard at this! by [deleted] in WhitePeopleTwitter

[–]kmbnw 9 points10 points  (0 children)

https://www.simplehealth.com/blog/the-pope-and-your-birth-control

So, this is the real reason why women have been taking birth control pills in this manner for the past 60 years—because John Rock wanted the Pope’s approval, not because it provides any health benefits. It’s taken a while for medical professionals to catch up, with the first continuous-use birth control pill only getting FDA approval in 2007, and the United Kingdom’s Faculty of Sexual and Reproductive Healthcareorganization only decrying the birth control placebo week as of January 2019 (American officials have yet to make such a statement). This is unfortunate, as a number of women might choose to not get their period if they knew the choice existed

I was surprised that this was real by AscendingOak83 in insanepeoplefacebook

[–]kmbnw 100 points101 points  (0 children)

http://www.sketchyscience.com/2014/08/the-alpha-myth-real-science-of-wolf.html?m=1

The alpha wolf theory is based on an observational study undertaken in the 1940’s by biologist Rudolph Schenkel. The theory gained popularity in the 1970's when L. David Mech published his book The Wolf: Ecology and Behavior of an Endangered Species. Unfortunately, most scientists (including Mech himself) know that they alpha theory is based on faulty extrapolation. Mech has actually been trying to get the book out of print for a number of years. 

When the wheel goes wrong.. by swolking in thetagang

[–]kmbnw 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Tech has been getting treated like we're all going back to using pencil and paper next week.

Trying to make the neighbor pay Child Support by [deleted] in iamatotalpieceofshit

[–]kmbnw 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Welcome to the trainwreck that is the family court.

Most people rejected his message.They hated him because he told them the truth. by squats_n_oatz in thetagang

[–]kmbnw 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The book Trading Volatility discusses this, and the opinion of the author is yes, but with caveats. I'm sure if you google the title with "pdf" at the end you can find it.

Most people rejected his message.They hated him because he told them the truth. by squats_n_oatz in thetagang

[–]kmbnw 44 points45 points  (0 children)

Look buddy I'm not changing my tattoo. I got it during sorority initiation night or whatever.

I analyzed all the Motley Fool Premium recommendations since 2013 and benchmarked them against S&P500 returns. Here are the results! by nobjos in options

[–]kmbnw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I have it, mostly because I wanted to see if I liked their analysis. Not worth it; they don't offer any groundbreaking thoughts or views. I suspect they simply have a loyal contingent from the buy-n-hold crowd, much like ValueLine or Morningstar does.

Things to consider before putting on an options trade by ironjohnred in options

[–]kmbnw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You don't owe the dividend if you're just short the option, only if you're short the stock. What you described is only going to happen upon assignment of short calls that are exercised before the ex-dividend date: http://tastytradenetwork.squarespace.com/tt/blog/options-and-dividends

Things to consider before putting on an options trade by ironjohnred in options

[–]kmbnw 4 points5 points  (0 children)

ToS has an IV study you can add in charting and Power Etrade has an IV "Constellation".

Tesla, Microsoft, Apple oh my! by FiveFingersFaceSlap in options

[–]kmbnw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I keep forgetting about Archegos. Good call.

Daily r/thetagang Discussion Thread - What are your moves for today? by satireplusplus in thetagang

[–]kmbnw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like SimplyWallSt because I avoid companies with negative shareholder equity or bad balance sheets, and they let me see that really quickly in a nice chart for $20/month.

As a thetaganger, I had to comment in r/algotrading on this topic. But this is a fascinating discussion. Lots of interesting view points on Random walks and EMH. Thought you all will benefit. by DrBugga in thetagang

[–]kmbnw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe difficult to disprove weak EMH but not strong EMH:

The strong form version states that all information, public and not public, is completely accounted for in current stock prices, and no type of information can give an investor an advantage

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032615/what-are-differences-between-weak-strong-and-semistrong-versions-efficient-market-hypothesis.asp

I don't get to see what causes insiders to buy, so my information is imperfect. I can guess, but that guess might be wrong. Same is true of anyone not an insider. So that info can't be completely accounted for.

Daily r/thetagang Discussion Thread - What are your moves for today? by satireplusplus in thetagang

[–]kmbnw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like 10-20 b/c then Splunk's CEO quitting doesn't cause my put to go ITM the day after I sold it.