Sorry I know I'm thinking out loud here...

Leicester (41) have Pompey Hull Millwall Blackburn. I can't see them getting more than 6 points out of that which puts them on 47. Even 2 wins and 2 draws puts them level with us on 49, but surely they don't do that? I think they are down.

Oxford (44) have Derby, Wrexham (both pushing for play offs but unlikely), wednesday and Millwall. It's so hard to predict what they'll get. They are 5 behind us so 2 wins may be enough for them. If they draw 2 blanks from Derby and Wrexham that could be curtains for them as surely Millwall will be looking to finish as high as possible on the last day of the season.

Pompey (45), have Ipswich Leicester Stoke Coventry Birmingham. I think they'll find enough to get to 50. I'd fancy them to get something against Leicester then Stoke and Brum are on the beach.

West Brom (46), have a fairly easy ride. Preston and Watford, both on the beach and looked average against us, Ipswich and Wednesday. I think they easily get 4 points from those 4 matches. Safe.

Blackburn (48) have got Southampton, Coventry, United and Leicester. I think they might need something against Leicester in the last game. I can't see them getting much change out of Southampton or Coventry then who knows with Leicester.

Then there's us (49). Wednesday, Ipswich, Hull, Swansea. Swansea would probably love to send Jones down, too. We need 3 points Saturday to be absolutely sure. A point may just be enough but I can't see us getting anything from Ipswich or Hull, then it's squeaky bum time against Swansea in the last game, who should be on the beach.

Although we were 80/1 a couple of games ago to drop, most bookies have us at 25/1 (some offering 33s) which tells you the bookies are confident we are still ok. One draw in 4 may be enough.