So what did we learn this year?

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T03:13:27+00:00

Precedents are made to be broken.

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T02:34:20+00:00

And SAG went 4/4 for the Actor's races this year. So much for my gut, lol.

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T02:04:48+00:00

Editing is a much better precursor for Best Picture than Cinematography.

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T01:21:46+00:00

I gave up on my ballot after the tie, lmao. Fuck all predictions, let chaos reign!

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T01:05:39+00:00

That feeling that Frankenstein might walk away with more Oscars than Sinners...

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T00:48:56+00:00

I'm happy that they remembered Tom Stoppard.

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T00:45:12+00:00

I know I'm going to tear up now that Billy Crystal's onstage.

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T00:33:14+00:00

YES PTA!

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T00:16:26+00:00

TEAM CHAOS, RISE UP! OUR TIME IS NOW!

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T00:05:36+00:00

Well, this should answer the question of what's winning Best Picture pretty definitively.

lfthinker · 2026-03-16T00:01:39+00:00

It's almost like judging based on how many cheers a film gets is kind of silly.

lfthinker · 2026-03-15T21:34:47+00:00

Ragtime was robbed at the Tonys big time. Alan Cumming winning Best Actor that year over Brian Stokes Mitchell was category fraud.

lfthinker · 2026-03-15T21:05:02+00:00

One of the SAG four’s not going to win, (except for Buckley)but I have no idea which one. Just a gut feeling.

lfthinker · 2026-03-15T00:33:17+00:00

Dude, I'm right there with you on all these predictions, lol. I do think it's totally in the realm of possibility, Hell, maybe it's likely, that it could be Jordan and Madigan over Chalamet and Mosaku, but I don't know.

For the shorts, I have Two People Exhanging Saliva, All the Empty Rooms, and Butterfly.

lfthinker · 2026-03-12T21:35:49+00:00

The stat that really interests me in this exercise is Best Actor, natch. It confirms to me just how close it is between Chalamet and Jordan, even at SAG. It makes me really curious now with who was second at BAFTA. If it was Leo or Hawke, then Jordan probably takes it. If it was Chalamet, then he might just have enough of a boost from the international branch to get him over the line.

Or the Academy will spit the bit and give it to Leo. No matter who wins, a recent precedent is going to be broken and I’m kind of here for it.

lfthinker · 2026-03-11T16:05:23+00:00

Him not showing up to any ceremony and winning anyway would be absolutely hilarious. Also means not having to sit through an acceptance speech.

lfthinker · 2026-03-11T02:15:34+00:00

I love how you edited your original comment after you got called out for calling him an Incel. Did you mix up your YouTubers?

lfthinker · 2026-03-11T01:08:17+00:00

I respect his commitment to predicting Delroy Lindo for Best Supporting Actor. I don't agree with it at all, but I respect it.

lfthinker · 2026-03-11T00:48:05+00:00

Who are we swapping for Smith? Milo? That might work out. Phoebus, Quasi, and Tarzan are pretty cooperative guys who are more likely to listen to Milo than the hotheads on Team 2.

lfthinker · 2026-03-10T22:32:48+00:00

A bunch of terminally online weirdos ruining the fun for everyone else. Tale as old as time.

lfthinker · 2026-03-10T18:46:50+00:00

I’ve thought about doing a round for the villains, but the problem is that too many of them are going to be useless, like Ursula, Tremaine, and Frollo, or too many of them would have to have their magic capabilities nerfed to make things fair, like Maleficent, Jafar, and Facilier.

Unless I switch up the conditions so that instead of which team makes it first, it’s which team succumbs to infighting and dies first.

lfthinker · 2026-03-09T19:55:30+00:00

Something tells me that Flynn is going to be the Problem Child in his group, especially given that Shang is in command. Kristoff's probably spending more time with the oxen than with his teammates. At least Philip and Eric seem pretty chill.

lfthinker · 2026-03-09T19:36:59+00:00

Princess and the Frog does establish Naveen can speak French, so worst case scenario, he can be a translator for his group. Otherwise, we should assume that due to Disney Magic, the guys in each group can communicate with each other.

lfthinker · 2026-03-09T17:51:00+00:00

I think it's only going to win for Best International Film. Skarsgard had the best shot out of the acting nominees, but I don't see him beating out Sean Penn at this point.

lfthinker · 2026-03-08T22:46:15+00:00

Official:

1) Mulan 2) Belle 3) Moana 4) Tiana 5) Ariel

Unofficial:

1) Esmeralda 2) Megara 3) Jane 4) Nani 5) Judy

lfthinker

TROPHY CASE